Rafael Nadal won his 6th Rome title a day later than expected with another relatively easy victory over a clearly frustrated Novak Djokovic, 7-5 6-3. The victory also guarantees Nadal the number two seed at Roland Garros. Djokovic will still be the one seed.
Nadal didn’t face a 3 set match all week as he rolled over Florian Mayer, Marcel Granollers, Tomas Berdych and dejected countryman David Ferrer before taking out Djokovic.
Why Rafael Nadal Might be the GOAT – Rafa’s claim to the GOAT title revolves around three areas of excellence. I’ll begin with clay. First, no one has dominated any surface in the manner that Nadal has dominated clay. Rafa is Borg’s equal in French Open titles, but his ownership of Monte Carlo, the Italian Open and Barcelona along with titles at the Hamburg/Madrid clay court Masters 1000 events is unreal. Rafa being so far out in front of everyone on that surface gives him a cushion to work with on other surfaces when he is compared to other players.
However, Rafa does not really need that cushion as his second attribute will attest. Rafa owns big titles on hard courts and grass courts and won his career Grand Slam much earlier in his career than Andre Agassi or Roger Federer did. Nadal won the 2008 Olympic Gold medal on a hard court. He won the 2009 Australian Open and 2010 US Open titles. Throw in multiple titles at Indian Wells and at the Canadian Open along with his runner-up finishes in New York and Melbourne, and no one can say Rafa is not a great hard court champion. On grass, Rafa’s case is even stronger. Rafa owns two Wimbledon titles as well as a title at the Queen’s Club. Rafa is a three time Wimbledon runner-up. Nadal has reached more Wimbledon championship matches than Stefan Edberg did! Rafa knows grass.
Finally, Rafael Nadal holds an 18-10 head-to-head edge over Roger Federer. A lot has been made of this fact. I think their age gap along with the surface gap has some implications here, but the numbers are there. Rafa has beaten Roger in many big matches. This means something.
Why Rafael Nadal is not the GOAT - The French Open specifically and clay court tennis in general did not gain equal footing with events on faster surfaces until the mid 1980′s. Rafael Nadal has never won a season ending title and has only reached the season ending event’s final round one time. Rafael Nadal still trails Bjorn Borg’s 11 majors, Pete Sampras’ 14 majors and Roger Federer’s 16 majors.
You Decide - Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are still moving targets as they keep adding to their career accomplishments. Consider that Federer and Nadal have combined to win seven titles in 2012 alone (and it is only May!). Rafa being younger than Roger makes it even harder to know where his career will lead. I can say with a lot of confidence that Rafa should equal and pass Bjorn Borg’s major totals. The Spaniard’s hard court wins already have Nadal ahead of Borg in my all-time lists. Will Rafa get to fourteen or sixteen majors? That is harder to predict. If his health holds up and he solves the Djokovic riddle, Nadal has a very good chance of laying claim to the title of GOAT. If Rafa’s knees go and/or he cannot beat Nole on surfaces other than clay, in my mind he’ll likely end up somewhere among the top three post-Laver players.
1. Novak Djokovic – Novak is number one, but his grasp has weakened. Does he still have Rafa’s number?
Good Times for Nole
2. Rafael Nadal - Rafa is back to number two after winning his third title in four outings. Will Rafa’s clay court wins versus Nole carry over in the form of a mental edge to grass and hard courts? Change from last week +1
Good Times for Rafa; Not so Good for Nole
3. Roger Federer – Titles in Dubai, Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Madrid have Roger Federer positioned well, but he will need to play better than he did in the Rome semis to reclaim number one for even a single week. Change from last week -1
4. Tomas Berdych - Big Berd played Rafa as tough as anyone in Rome and was solid in Madrid. Change from last week + 2
Why Berdych is Rising
5. David Ferrer - A semifinal in Rome and tough first set versus Rafa was the good news. Losing 6-0 in the second set was the bad news. No one plays harder than Ferrer, but even on clay he lacks the tools to beat the top three guys with any regularity. Change from last week + 2
6. Juan Martin del Potro - His title in Estoril and semifinal showing in Madrid make me think he could pull an upset in Paris. Change from last week – 2
7. Andy Murray - What has happened to Andy’s promising start to 2012? Change since last week – 2
Gasquet telling Murray that his one-hander is better than Ivan’s
8. Nicolas Almagro – He is still not quite a second tier contender on the dirt. Change from last week – 1
9. Gilles Simon - Solid enough to be #9 on the countdown.
10. Janko Tipsarevic – Tipsy upset Nole and reached the Madrid semifinal round. That is enough to enter the top 10. Change from last week – Not Ranked
Biggest Movers – Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer +2 and Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Murray -2
Roger Federer’s 6-2, 5-7, 6-1 win over Juan Carlos Ferrero got me thinking about an earlier match between the two in which far more was at stake
2004 Federer vs. Ferrero in Melbourne
It is easy to forget how well Juan Carlos Ferrero played in 2003. At the end of the 2003 season, a split decision existed. Andy Roddick was number one in the computers and put together a huge run of North American events to get there. Roger Federer surged to number two after winning all five of his Masters Cup matches including straight set wins over Roddick and Juan Carlos Ferrero. The Spaniard ranked third to end 2003, but he won Roland Garros and was the runner-up at the US Open. In fact, Ferrero won the most Grand Slam matches (20 in total) in 2003. The Spaniard, unlike Federer, held the number one ranking for part of the year. A three horse race was in place to start 2004.
Andy Roddick entered the 2004 Australian Open as the top seed, but was beaten by a resurgent Marat Safin in the quarterfinal round. Roger Federer and Juan Carlos Ferrero met in the semifinal round with the number one ranking squarely on the line. If Ferrero reached his second consecutive hard court major final, he’d be viewed as taking the tour by the horns. Roger Federer winning would mean that his masterful season ending form had carried over into 2004.
Federer beat Ferrero relatively easily. Roger went on to defeat Marat Safin in the final round. Those two wins combined with Federer’s 2004 Australian Open wins over Lleyton Hewitt and David Nalbandian confirmed that Roger was the best of his generation. He re-affirmed this by defeating Hewitt and Roddick at Wimbledon 2004. Ferrero on the other hand suffered from some serious illnesses and never returned to the heights he occupied from Roland Garros 2003 through Melbourne 2004.
Various Firewalls Failed to Stop the Fed
Still, the match between Roger and Juan Carlos at the 2004 Australian Open was Juan Carlos’ best chance to establish himself as a peer to Federer. Each man in that generation had a match or two that could have changed the nature of their one-sided relationship with Federer. Juan Carlos’ came in January 2004. Andy Roddick had a number of big matches versus Roger, but his 2004 Wimbledon final loss shifted that rivalry. Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt each made push backs against Roger that met with limited success. Safin played Federer tough at the 2004 Masters Cup and followed that up with a five set win over Roger en route to an Australian Open title in 2005. Hewitt reached back-to-back major finals between the 2004 US Open and 2005 Australian Open. Each of these push backs was thwarted during the 2005 grass court season. Federer won a tight three set final over Marat Safin at Halle. He then went on to defeat Hewitt in straight sets in the semifinal round of Wimbledon 2005.
Roger was simply better than his contemporaries, and he likely would have reigned for several years even with a few extra losses in big matches. However, Roddick, Hewitt, Safin or Ferrero may have been emboldened by one or two more wins in these pivotal matches. That may have helped them mentally snag one or two additional wins. Also, Roger’s confidence may not have grown quite so much, and he may have thrown in a few more losses prior to the final weekend of majors.
Post Script: A Challenge Did Arise
Throw in a straight set win over Andy Roddick in the 2005 Wimbledon final, and Federer had cleared out his generation. When the grass court season closed in 2005, Federer had won five major titles leaving Hewitt and Safin’s two majors in the rear view mirror. Of course, 2005 saw the emergence of someone who did truly push back against Roger’s reign. Rafael Nadal lost a five set final in Miami to Roger after squandering a two set lead. Nadal did not make the same mistakes in Paris, and a new rivalry was born at roughly the same time Roger was completing his conquest of his contemporaries. A great deal has happened between 2005 and 2012, but these two men are still making headlines and history.
Somewhere, there is a Dr. Seuss rhyme that illustrates top players' feelings about Madrid Open's dreaded blue clay:
I will not play on blue clay, I say. I will not play on that blue clay today.
Last week, at the Madrid Open, top (spoiled) men's tennis players Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic lost out and promptly complained about the brand-new TV-friendly bright blue clay courts, that were recently installed by court owner…
After capturing the Madrid Open title and knowing he will climb back above Rafa Nadal to number two in the world, Roger Federer has set his sights on reclaiming the top ranking..
The resurgent 30-year-old Swiss came from a set down to beat Tomas Berdych in the Madrid final on Sunday, a fourth title of the year and a third in the Spanish capital that put him level on 20 Masters crowns with great rival Nadal.
Imagine the organizers at the Key Biscayne event announcing, “Because we are the last event before the European clay court season starts, we will be changing our tournament from a hard court event to a green clay event as a transition to softer courts.” Would the same players be up in arms about such a change that were fretting over Madrid’s blue dirt? My guess is NO! However, Key Biscayne has been a staple of pro tennis since it began in 1985. It has been on a hard court for over twenty-five years. Doesn’t tradition mean anything? Key Biscayne has far more tradition than does Madrid. Would there be outrage if such a change was made unilaterally by the tournament owners and sponsors?
No, the players who complained so vociferously about blue clay would welcome Key Biscayne switching to green clay or even blue clay because the softer court would be easier on their joints as well as adding a fourth Masters 1000 event 0n a soft court. So what gives?
The Rebirth of Tennis Stereotypes
In the late 1980′s it was fashionable to portray tennis players as temperamental, self-absorbed people who lacked perspective. It took a long time to shed this stereotype. Andre Agassi’s school, Carlos Moya donating all of his 2004 title earnings in India to tsunami relief, the first Hit for Haiti, the exhibitions for Australian flood relief and for Chile have all recast professional tennis players as some of the most in touch global sports figures.
That is what is so disappointing about the court color controversy. Rafael Nadal’s foundation and joy at the 2010 Hit for Haiti demonstrate that Rafa is a good guy with perspective. Novak Djokovic’s 60 Minutes interview this year helped casual fans see what being raised during a civil war means.
These guys generally get it. Yet, on this issue the hyperbolic criticism became a story with legs. Each player threatened never to return. If the blue clay were injuring players at the rate of Australia’s old rebound ace surface, I could see the consternation. However, as Jon Wertheim pointed out, the conditions at Monte Carlo were not particularly conducive to player safety and no high profile complaints were lodged. Wertheim also rightly points out that the worst clay court is easier on a player’s body than the best hard court (emphasis added).
I think a player is within his rights to say that he does not like a particular change. However, to become apoplectic over a change of this nature sends the wrong message to fans. Many of us are working hard to earn a decent living. To hear players who are multimillionaires complaining about safety issues that are in reality non-issues just knocks a little luster off of two champions with otherwise good public profiles. I hope to see a return of the ambassadors that Rafa and Nole can be for the sport.
Let us skip the boring parts shall we: one paragraph about how untouchable Berdych was in the first set - committing a total of 2 unforced errors to 14 winners; follow that up with a few lines on how the 'wily veteran' hung tough and slowly gained a foothold on the match, eventually wrangling the second set from Berdy.
1. Novak Djokovic – Novak is the number one player in the world, but the next few months will be interesting.
2. Roger Federer – Titles in Dubai, Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Madrid have Roger Federer surging in the computer rankings an in my 2012 Power Ranking. Change from last week +1
3. Rafael Nadal – Rafa seems very negative in his demeanor and verbiage this season. I think he can harness anger in the short term to some success, but it does not seem like a formula for long-term success. Change from last week – 1
4. Juan Martin del Potro – Winning Estoril and making a solid run in Madrid have JMDP moving ahead of Andy Murray in my eyes. Change from last week + 1
5. Andy Murray - Missing Madrid assured a drop. Change from last week – 1
6. Tomas Berdych – Big Berd crushed Monfils and Verdasco He then beat JMDP in a cole match before losing a tight final to Federer. Both Berdych and JMDP have to be considered second tier title contenders in Paris. Change from last week +2
7. David Ferrer – Rome offers one more chance to topple the guys ahead of him before Paris. Change from last week – 1
8. Nicolas Almagro – He is still not quite a second tier contender on the dirt. Change from last week – 1
9. Gilles Simon - Solid enough to be #9 on the countdown.
10. Janko Tipsarevic – Tipsy upset Nole and reached the Madrid semifinal round. That is enough to enter the top 10. Change from last week – Not Ranked
