I will have more on this later, but what an upset. If Fed or Nole lost, the the other would still impose some order on the top half of the draw. Andy Murray becomes the favorite to reach the final in the bottom half, but things open up for a lot of other players. Milos Raonic and Andy Roddick could benefit a great deal. Juan Martin del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga strike me as the two biggest winners today.
Nadal’s string of 5 consecutive Grand Slam finals reached is over. This was the third best streak of slam finals in the Open Era. Nole could tie Rafa’s mark by reaching the final here at SW19. Roger Federer is likely to enter the US Open as the #2 seed now as well. This is a seismic upset with aftershocks to impact the tour for the rest of the 2012 Grand Slam season.
Roger Federer should advance in a fairly routine match. Fognini is a fun player to watch in my opinion, but this match is not going to be overly competitive.
Novak Djokovic (SRB)[1] v Ryan Harrison (USA)
Nole should win this match. It will likely look one-sided on the scoreboard at the end. Still, Harrison needs to show some fight and use his talent to make an impression at some point in this match. Ryan is having a bit of a sophomore slump in 2012 and needs to reassert his potential.
Xavier Malisse (BEL) v Gilles Simon (FRA)[13]
This should be a real treat for tennis fans. It is odd for me to think that the X-Man was one five set loss in the 2002 Wimbledon semifinal round away from a Grand Slam final in England. Simon should advance, but if he is careless or out of sorts Malisse could make this interesting.
Ruben Bemelmans (BEL) v Richard Gasquet (FRA)[18]
I am breaking my own rule and picking Gasquet. He has been playing good tennis over the past few months. Grass is also a surface that Gasquet knows well.
Jeremy Chardy (FRA) v Juan Monaco (ARG)[15]
I love Monaco’s grinding game. On paper, he should advance based upon his proven toughness. However, I am picking Chardy due to his potentially big game and my belief that Monaco may have a hangover from the beating Rafa laid on him in Paris. That type of loss would seemingly sap a player of self-confidence for a month or two at least.
Michael Russell (USA) v Julien Benneteau (FRA)[29]
Benneteau is an excellent player, but playing Russell is never easy. Michael makes his opponents beat him by being supremely prepared in terms of fitness and game plan. In an early round match on grass, I’m picking Russell to pull an upset.
Igor Andreev (RUS) v Denis Istomin (UZB)
I like Andreev’s forehand a lot. It is a nasty weapon, but I cannot see him utilizing it enough to win this match.
Alejandro Falla (COL) v Nicolas Mahut (FRA)
Falla lost a 5 set match to Federer in the 2010 first round. His win over Isner in five sets seems just. Mahut is playing sneaky-good tennis as of late. This is as close to a 50-50 match as I see in the first round. I think Falla will advance due to his superior return game.
Venus Williams Career is Winding Down (We should appreciate her as a holder of 5 Wimbledon singles titles, 7 Grand Slam singles titles, and 3 Gold Medals)
Tomas Berdych is a frustrating talent to say the least (Gulbis is too)
John Isner is struggling. He has one of the top serves in the game, but his self-confidence seems to be shaken.
Mr. Isner, Mahut is still in the event. Hopefully, Isner plays Newport.
Tommy Haas got an awful draw.
Lleyton Hewitt and Juan Carlos Ferrero are still playing but enjoy them while you can.
Petra Kvitova needs to watch some footage of 2011.
David Goffin and Brian Baker have parlayed their momentum from Paris into first round victories.
Grigor Dmitrov vs. Marcos Baghdatis should be a match for tennis junkies.
Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray have a combined 12-0 record in sets won and lost.
PS – My move is finally complete. I will be covering Wimbledon from this point forward in the same manner that Richard Krajicek covered the net in 1996.
I wrote last year that 2011 was a good year for the WTA. I felt this way because Petra Kvitova looked like she would be a contender for multiple years, Na Li helped tennis expand into a market of over 1 billion people, Sam Stosur added a Grand Slam champion to the great Aussie tradition, and Maria Sharapova was once again back in the mix.
I have not written a ton about the WTA. Some could consider this to be me automatically liking men’s tennis better than women’s tennis. This is not the case. I have been following tennis consistently since 1985. I vividly remember Hana Mandlikova defeating Martina Navratilova at the 1985 US Open final. I became an immediate Steffi Graf fan watching her push Martina hard in the 1986 US Open semifinal round. The 1992 Monica Seles – Graf clash at the French Open that ended 6-2, 3-6, 10-8 in Seles’ favor was far better viewing for most fans than Jim Courier’s 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 thrashing of Petr Korda at the same event. My lack of coverage of the WTA over the past few years has a lot to do with how confusing and disjointed the women’s game has been at a time when men’s tennis is producing epic matches and all-time great players. I think order is being restored on the women’s side of the sport, and I could not be more pleased with this development.
2012: A Much Better Year
2012 has been an even better year for the WTA. Victoria Azarenka won her first Grand Slam title and joined Petra Kvitova as a contender for the foreseeable future. Azarenka claimed the #1 ranking and the Australian Open title. Azarenka went on an undefeated streak that did not quite live up to Nole’s from 2011, but it was a streak that had to be respected.
Maria Sharapova joined the party by winning her first French Open title and returning to #1. After years of players being ranked #1 without a Grand Slam title in the past 52 weeks or no Grand Slam titles period, Azarenka and Sharapova have created continuity between tennis’ top ranked players and the winners of tennis’ top events.
The old arrangement made top ranked players look like caretakers while part-time players collected the biggest prizes at tennis’ most visible events. In short, casual fans and even long-time tennis fans were often left scratching their head when looking at the WTA Tour.
Now, Sharapova and Azarenka are in a race to see who finishes 2012 ranked #1. Petra Kvitova has not played great at smaller events in 2012, but she is 10-2 in Grand Slam play this year. Petra is 1 slam away from creating another trivalry. The crowded summer of an Olympic year, held at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club no less, should give Azarenka, Sharapova and Kvitova a chance to prove who is #1 in a way that makes the ranking more meaningful than it has been in years.
1. Rafael Nadal - A French Open title, two Masters 1000 titles and 3 consecutive wins over Nole have Rafa holding the top spot.
2. Novak Djokovic – Not playing a Wimbledon tune-up was a smart move in 2011.
3. Roger Federer – His loss to Haas was a bit puzzling, but Roger did get 4 warm-up matches in before Wimbledon.
4. David Ferrer – His semifinal showing in Paris has Ferrer at #4.
5. Juan Martin del Potro – How well Delpo moves and how healthy he is will determine his Wimbledon run.
6. Tomas Berdych - If you are looking for a Wimbledon dark horse Berdych is a good candidate. In 2010, he beat Federer and Djokovic at SW19. Berdych has been solid in 2012 and will benefit from the surface change.
7. Andy Murray - What has happened to Andy’s promising start to 2012? Andy losing early at Queen’s Club was strange.
8. Nicolas Almagro – How will Nico do on grass?
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Last year’s run began with a solid outing at Queen’s Club. His showing this year was not solid.
10. Tommy Haas - I am not sure if he will stay here, but Haas had a lot of big wins at Halle. He beat 5 time champion Roger Federer, beat Tomas Berdych and clipped the defending champion. His reward a top 10 slot for the week. Change from Last Week- Unranked
Biggest Movers –Tommy Haas
Dropped Out of the Rankings –Milos Raonic (he played well vs. Fed, but someone had to drop).
Marin Cilic and Tommy Haas win the two most important Wimbledon tune-up events. Marin Cilic won his 8th career title and is moving toward a return to the top 10. Tommy Haas beat an all time great grass court champion to win his 2nd title at Halle while capping an inspiring return from injuries. Roger Federer lost at Halle. All of these would be worthy stories were it not for this:
The day’s line will read Haas d. Federer 7-6, 6-4 & Cilic d. Nalbandian 7-6, 4-3
The real story may be the return of the stereotype of tennis players being spoiled and temperamental. I am not trying to bash Nalbandian by laying at his feet the reputation of the entire sport, but I think Roger, Rafa and Nole have gone a long way to diminish the old way of viewing tennis pros. The Trivalry built upon the good work of Guga, Carlos Moya, and Pat Rafter. Obviously, every player has had a few moments he or she regrets, but this one in an era of youtube and twitter is not going to be easy for Nalbandian to forget. The video says it all.
David Nalbandian is a great ball striker who has had injury and fitness issues dampen his career. Marin Cilic is a talented player who looked to be on the verge of the top 5 in early 2010. The two have already gained momentum for Wimbledon, but the winner may be a spoiler capable of knocking out a top 10 seed.
My Prediction
Cilic’s win over a resurgent Sam Querrey, Sam deserves credit for battling back into main tour form, sets him up nicely. Cilic has a great serve and big forehand. Nalbandian has a great ability to change the direction of the ball. I think Cilic will win this match in 3 sets.
