I will put my bias out there and state that Roger Federer has been all-time my favorite tennis player to watch since 2003.  I like his game, his balance, his shot making etc.  I also will bluntly say that Roger is not playing near his career best 2006 level, or his 2004-2007 level, or his 2009 level and to this point not near his 2012 level.  Roger has been off in some tournaments this season.  Close losses to Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych are expected of a 31 year old.  Some of his other stumbles have been uncharacteristic.  Add in a reduced schedule and suddenly a tennis crisis emerges.

Overreaction Central

Roger Federer lost as defending champion in Madrid after skipping Monte Carlo and Miami.  Peter Bodo among others pronounced that Federer was slipping and that even his safe haven of grass might come under assault.  In reality, Federer has lost Halle finals to Lleyton Hewitt and Tommy Haas in recent years.  He lost a two set lead to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Wimbledon in 2011.  He lost in straight sets to Andy Murray in the Olympic Gold Medal round in 2012.  All of this happened on grass.  Roger is not running a grass court streak like he had from 2003-Wimbledon 2008.  Federer might lose a few matches on grass in 2013 and that does not mean he is finished anymore than his 2011 loss to Tsonga ended his hopes of winning Wimbledon again.

Similarly, if Roger has a nice event in Rome, it does not mean he is back to his 2009 clay court form.  Today, Roger Federer beat Gilles Simon on clay.  Federer was once 0-2 in his career matches vs. Simon.  He wins 6-1, 6-2 on his worst surface against a man who has troubled him.  Is Federer back (or is this a silly question) after being given last rites on his flight out of Madrid?  One match or one event is just not smart for judging a veteran and legend of the game.  Short term analysis will lead to Federer looking like a yo-yo.

Where Things Stand

 The fact is that Roger Federer is 31 years old.  He undoubtedly has nagging injuries like all players on tour, but his recovery time is likely slowing from what it once was.  He is still ranked in the top 4, but to this point in 2013 is playing as though he is roughly the 6th best player on tour.  Tommy Hass has won two titles in the past 52 weeks, upset the world number one, and made a serious run at a title in Miami.  Federer is four years younger than Haas.  Roger Federer is scheduling himself as though he is not terribly concerned about his ranking.  This may be a mistake as his 2012 form seemed to benefit from  playing with greater frequency than he had in 2010 or 2011.  Then again the benefit of being ranked in the top four only materializes if the other three players do the same.  Federer learned that Nadal is just as deadly in the quarterfinal round as he is during the final weekend of an event.

Nevertheless, Federer seems to be aiming toward being physically at his best heading into the biggest prizes in tennis.  This may or may not result in an 18th Grand Slam title, but I would not doubt the method too much.  Roger Federer is not the force of nature that he once was on tour.  He is still a player capable of winning big matches.  Federer will need circumstances to break his way more than he once did, but so long as his hunger to win big titles is still there he will be relevant in 2013.  His coach Paul Annacone saw Pete Sampras win Wimbledon in 2000 when his draw opened up enough to reach a championship match on a bad leg.*  Sampras also won the 2002 US Open as the 17th seed.  A lot had to go right for Sampras to win those two events, but he was hungry enough to take advantage of the opportunities that did eventually present themselves.  Undoubtedly, Annacone is preaching the same message to Federer who is not yet taking on water to the degree that Sampras was in 2002.  With Nole and Nadal playing so well, it is not as easy to see a draw breaking wide open for Federer, but to say eulogize his career is just giving into sensationalism.

* Gimelstob, Bjorkman, Gambill and Voltchkov were not a murderers row of opponents.

** This sense of overreaction is not limited to Federer.  Nole left Dubai with some wondering if he would duplicate his record setting start to 2011 and post his best year ever.  After Indian Wells and Miami, some felt Djokovic looked worn out.  He then wins Monte Carlo by beating Nadal and a calendar Grand Slam is discussed.  Then he loses to Dimitrov in Madrid.  Is Nole clearly #1 or slipping?  Hyperbole is the name of the game for analysts these days.

Quarterfinals
Kei Nishikori (14) vs. Pablo Andujar - A great match for tennis lovers, but I think Andujar will be more fresh and as I said earlier I love Pablo’s game.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6) – I think clay helps Berdych here.  He can hit through the court whereas Murray’s shots may sit up more.

David Ferrer (4) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Numero uno en Espana es Rafa!  This will be closer than Acapulco was though.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (15) – Stan is on a roll.

Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori - Federer has had a mediocre 2013 by his standards.  He also has points to defend.  I expect Roger to advance, but a loss would not be shocking.

Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon - In 2008, Simon looked like Murray’s mini-me.  This could go either  way on clay.  I still think Murray advances.

David Ferrer vs. Tommy Haas - A rematch of their Miami semifinal.  Haas just won a tournament, but Ferrer on clay in Spain has to be the pick.

Rafael Nadal vs. Mikhail Youzhny - In 2006 at the US Open, I’d pick the Russian.  Rafa advances

Tomas Berdych vs. Kevin Anderson - The big Czech should win on clay.  Still, Anderson keeps winning matches.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco - My first upset pick for May 9th’s slate of matches.  Tsonga nearly beat Nole at Roland Garros last year and pushed Rafa in Monte Carlo this year.  Still, clay favors Verdasco who needs a signature win.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov - This match is worth the price of admission.  Wawrinka just won a tournament beating #4 David Ferrer in the final.  Dimitrov took a set off of Rafa at Monte Carlo and beat Djokovic in Madrid.  I think Wawrinka’s momentum helps him hold off Dimitrov, but the youngster is making waves.

Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs. Pablo Andujar - I love Pablo.

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he needs to rest his ankle if he is going to make an assault on Roland Garros.

2.  Rafael Nadal (Tie) - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa geared up for another European clay court season.

2.  Andy Murray (Tie) – Winning Miami along with his early results in Brisbane and Melbourne have Murray tied for #2 with Nadal.  Change since last ranking +1

4.  Tomas Berdych - He played well enough in Miami to stay at #4.

5.  Roger Federer – We’ll know more about where Federer’s game and health are when the clay court season ends.  

6.  David Ferrer – His runner-up showing in Miami leads to a gain in my not yet binding Power Ranking.  Change since last ranking +1

7.  Juan Martin del Potro - An early loss in Miami only costs the Big Man one spot.  Change since last ranking -1

8.  Richard Gasquet – He is quietly putting together his best start to any season.  Change since last ranking +1

9.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – We’ll know more after Wimbledon.  Change since last ranking -1

10.  Tommy Haas -  The old man of the tour reached the semifinal round in Miami by pulling a huge upset or two.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Movers – Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet all gained one spot while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin del Potro both dropped one spot.

Dropped Out – Milos Raonic (despite some nice Davis Cup play) 

Entered the Rankings – Tommy Haas

The US Open is obviously a Grand Slam event.  One third of the ATP’s Masters 1000 events reside inside of the United States.  The Wimbledon and French Open championship start times are designed to get access to some of the television market in the US.  Yet, the US does not currently have a male player ranked within the top 15 in the world.  Under ordinary circumstances, this would mean casual tennis fans would tune out inside the US.  Luckily, Roger Federer has been an incredible ambassador for tennis since 2004.  Rafael Nadal has won over many fans with a different style than Roger’s.  Novak Djokovic has brought a different personality and style of play that has made its way into the US sporting consciousness.  Andy Murray’s Olympic Gold and US Open title in 2012 helped him to make strides as well.  Federer reached his first major final in 2003, Nadal in 2005, Djokovic in 2007 and Murray in 2008.  Their consistency and general affability, along with Andy Roddick’s results, have helped keep tennis relevant for general fans of sports inside the US.

Where Have You Gone Andy Roddick or Aaron Krickstein?

Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open and was runner-up at four other Grand Slam events.  Andy Roddick reached at least a Grand Slam semifinal round on ten different occasions.  His contemporaries James Blake and Mardy Fish have combined for a handful of Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances, but neither has yet reached the final four of a slam.  Younger US  players have combined for a total of one Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance.  John Isner lost in the 2011 US Open quarterfinal round.  Sam Querrey, the highest ranked US player, along with Jack Sock, Ryan Harrison, and Denis Kudla have yet to reach a quarter at a major.

Todd Martin (no relation) was runner-up at both the 1994 Australian Open and the 1999 US Open. Mal Washington was runner-up at the 1996 Wimbledon Championships due in part to defeating Todd Martin in five sets in the semifinal round.  Aaron Krickstein reached a US Open semifinal in 1989 and an Australian Open semifinal in 1995.  David Wheaton reached the 1991 Wimbledon semifinals.  Robby Ginepri’s 2005 US Open semifinal run is the only comprable story in recent years.*

Where Things Stand

No country can ever bank on producing record setting champions such as Andre Agassi, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Pete Sampras.  To this point, the current crop of US players has not come close to producing results along the lines of what great players such as Michael Chang, Jim Courier, Vitas Gerulaitus or Andy Roddick achieved.  Few tennis fans remember Todd Martin or Mal Washington as key US players during the 1990s.  However, a male US citizen becoming a Grand Slam finalist would be a welcome site for the USTA.

Silver Linings

Mardy Fish won a silver medal in 2004.  James Blake and Mardy Fish have each appeared in Masters 1000 championship matches.  Blake contested a classic match against Andre Agassi at the 2005 US Open.  We’ve seen Isner compete in a historic marathon while also carving out a lot of success on faster courts and in Davis Cup.  Sam Querrey has rebounded nicely from an injury.  Finally, the very group of uber consistent Europeans known as the Big Four have made second week Grand Slam efforts harder to muster.

The US is becoming increasingly diverse.  A top ten dominated by players from Europe, South America and Asia will find prospective fans living in various parts of the US.  Beyond that, advances in broadcast quality have made tennis easier and easier to appreciate.  A US citizen won at least one slam on the men’s tour from 1989-2003.  Yet, tennis has been enjoying a popularity spike within the US that began in 2006?  Maybe things are not as gloomy as they appear.

In 10 Years?

In a decade Roger Federer will be 41.  Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray will each likely be out of tennis as well.  If the US does not produce a few top ten players over the next decade, I cannot imagine that tennis will be as popular as it is today in my home country.  Federer and Nadal are transcendent champions.  Novak Djokovic has done ballroom dancing en route to an Australian Open title.  Nole is close to joining the ranks of tennis’ pantheon.  Regardless of who the US produces, tennis will need to find some exceptional players to fill the void that the Big Four will leave.  Still, a few US players making runs can only help keep the profile of the sport high.  That is vital for tennis given the events that are held on US soil and the importance of the US television market.

* Since Ginepri is still out there grinding away on tour, he is the only active US citizen on the ATP Tour with a Grand Slam semifinal appearance to his name.

Andy Murray and David Ferrer had a pair of intense matches at the 2012 French Open and Wimbledon events.  Each man took a hard earned four set victory on his preferred surface.  Since that time, Murray has won an Olympic Gold Medal and a US Open title.  Ferrer led the tour in tournament victories in 2012 and won his first Masters 1000 crown.  Both have had some tough losses as well.  Novak Djokovic made Andy Murray into a three-time Australian Open runner-up.  Ferrer got smashed by Djokovic in Australia and by Nadal in Acapulco.  The winner will leave the first portion of 2013 with momentum.

Ferrer Deserves Credit

David Ferrer reached his first French Open semifinal in 2012 only to be crushed by Rafael Nadal.  He followed that with a grass court title, a victory over Andy Roddick on grass, and a tough Wimbledon quarterfinal loss to Andy Murray.  Ferrer reached the 2012 US Open and 2013 Australian Open semifinal rounds.   Novak Djokovic then laid a beating on Ferrer.  All David did was go win Buenos Aires and reach the final in Acapulco.  Once again he took a one-sided beating at the hands of one of his superiors on tour (this time Nadal).  All David has done is reach a Masters 1000 final in Miami.  Ferrer is undeterred by some harsh reminders that he lacks the weapons generally needed to claim tennis’ biggest prizes.  If he wins Miami, he’ll add that to his Paris title from 2012 and various Davis Cup victories.

Andy Murray is at Home

Miami is a training ground for Andy Murray.  He has played quite well at this Masters event.  Miami’s slow hard courts are ideally suited for his return game.  Murray won Miami in 2009 and was runner-up in 2012.  These factors would seemingly bode well for him versus Ferrer.  Murray has a 6-5 head-to-head  record versus Ferrer.  He is 5-1 on hard courts in their rivalry.  Still, the 2011 Australian Open semifinal went 4 sets, and Ferrer has had more success versus Murray than any of the other members of the big 4.  All of this leads me to predict a close victory for Murray.  I think Murray wins his second title in Miami 7-5, 7-5.

Semifinals

Gasquet Posted a Huge QF Win

Andy Murray (2) vs. Richard Gasquet (8) – Gasquet is re-establishing himself in a big way, but I think Murray is going to win in an entertaining match.

Haas has Beaten Djokovic and Federer Over the Past 52 Weeks

David Ferrer (3) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – I picked against Haas twice, I won’t do it this time.  I think Haas can dictate play versus Ferrer is he is zoning, and he appears to be zoning.

Fourth Round

Albert Ramos vs. Jurgen Melzer - I love Melzer, but I think the slow hard courts will benefit Ramos more.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – Nole should win, but Tommy Haas’ resurgence has been a nice story over the past 15 months.

Andy Murray (2) vs. Andreas Seppi (16) – Murray will win in one of his adopted home towns.

David Ferrer (3) vs. Kei Nishikori (13)

Tomas Berdych (4) vs. Sam Querrey (17) – Big man tennis here, but Berdych just has more game.  His backhand and return game are better than Querrey’s.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6) vs. Marin Cilic (9) – The Croatian pulls off a mild upset.

Janko Tipsarevic (7) vs. Gilles Simon (11) – Simon is sneaky good and Tipsy has struggled in recent months.

Richard Gasquet (8) vs. Nicolas Almagro (10) – This is a 50-50 match, but the court speed favors Almagro’s game.

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.

2.  Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising.  Change since last Ranking +1

3.  Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings.  Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show.  Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players.  He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it.  Change since last ranking + 2

5.  Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time.  He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2.  My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing.  Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis.  Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5.  Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder.  Change since last ranking +3 

7.  David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013.  Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him.  Change since last ranking – 2

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic

Entered the Rankings – Milos Raonic

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinal Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) – Et tu Tsonga?  Doubtful.  Nole advances to the semis.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – If Murray is still nuring his Australian Open loss, Delpo has a great chance at an upset.  My guess is Murray is slowly moving toward the Wimbledon-US Open stretch with hopes of a decent run on clay.  Therefore, an unburdened Murray advances.

Semifinal Round

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Maria Kirilenko (13) – Kirilenko could win, but the odds are heavily in favor of Sharapova advancing.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – I see Caro building on her win over Azarenka with a win here.