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The State of US Men’s Tennis

8 Apr

 The Big Four Help

The US Open is obviously a Grand Slam event.  One third of the ATP’s Masters 1000 events reside inside of the United States.  The Wimbledon and French Open championship start times are designed to get access to some of the television market in the US.  Yet, the US does not currently have a male player ranked within the top 15 in the world.  Under ordinary circumstances, this would mean casual tennis fans would tune out inside the US.  Luckily, Roger Federer has been an incredible ambassador for tennis since 2004.  Rafael Nadal has won over many fans with a different style than Roger’s.  Novak Djokovic has brought a different personality and style of play that has made its way into the US sporting consciousness.  Andy Murray’s Olympic Gold and US Open title in 2012 helped him to make strides as well.  Federer reached his first major final in 2003, Nadal in 2005, Djokovic in 2007 and Murray in 2008.  Their consistency and general affability, along with Andy Roddick’s results, have helped keep tennis relevant for general fans of sports inside the US.

Where Have You Gone Andy Roddick or Aaron Krickstein?

Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open and was runner-up at four other Grand Slam events.  Andy Roddick reached at least a Grand Slam semifinal round on ten different occasions.  His contemporaries James Blake and Mardy Fish have combined for a handful of Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances, but neither has yet reached the final four of a slam.  Younger US  players have combined for a total of one Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance.  John Isner lost in the 2011 US Open quarterfinal round.  Sam Querrey, the highest ranked US player, along with Jack Sock, Ryan Harrison, and Denis Kudla have yet to reach a quarter at a major.

Todd Martin (no relation) was runner-up at both the 1994 Australian Open and the 1999 US Open. Mal Washington was runner-up at the 1996 Wimbledon Championships due in part to defeating Todd Martin in five sets in the semifinal round.  Aaron Krickstein reached a US Open semifinal in 1989 and an Australian Open semifinal in 1995.  David Wheaton reached the 1991 Wimbledon semifinals.  Robby Ginepri’s 2005 US Open semifinal run is the only comprable story in recent years.*

Where Things Stand

No country can ever bank on producing record setting champions such as Andre Agassi, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Pete Sampras.  To this point, the current crop of US players has not come close to producing results along the lines of what great players such as Michael Chang, Jim Courier, Vitas Gerulaitus or Andy Roddick achieved.  Few tennis fans remember Todd Martin or Mal Washington as key US players during the 1990s.  However, a male US citizen becoming a Grand Slam finalist would be a welcome site for the USTA.

Silver Linings

Mardy Fish won a silver medal in 2004.  James Blake and Mardy Fish have each appeared in Masters 1000 championship matches.  Blake contested a classic match against Andre Agassi at the 2005 US Open.  We’ve seen Isner compete in a historic marathon while also carving out a lot of success on faster courts and in Davis Cup.  Sam Querrey has rebounded nicely from an injury.  Finally, the very group of uber consistent Europeans known as the Big Four have made second week Grand Slam efforts harder to muster.

The US is becoming increasingly diverse.  A top ten dominated by players from Europe, South America and Asia will find prospective fans living in various parts of the US.  Beyond that, advances in broadcast quality have made tennis easier and easier to appreciate.  A US citizen won at least one slam on the men’s tour from 1989-2003.  Yet, tennis has been enjoying a popularity spike within the US that began in 2006?  Maybe things are not as gloomy as they appear.

In 10 Years?

In a decade Roger Federer will be 41.  Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray will each likely be out of tennis as well.  If the US does not produce a few top ten players over the next decade, I cannot imagine that tennis will be as popular as it is today in my home country.  Federer and Nadal are transcendent champions.  Novak Djokovic has done ballroom dancing en route to an Australian Open title.  Nole is close to joining the ranks of tennis’ pantheon.  Regardless of who the US produces, tennis will need to find some exceptional players to fill the void that the Big Four will leave.  Still, a few US players making runs can only help keep the profile of the sport high.  That is vital for tennis given the events that are held on US soil and the importance of the US television market.

* Since Ginepri is still out there grinding away on tour, he is the only active US citizen on the ATP Tour with a Grand Slam semifinal appearance to his name.

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Who Needs a 5th Major?

26 Mar

Four or Five or?

The Indian Wells-Miami section of the tour is a great stretch for tennis fans.  Most of the top players on the ATP and WTA play both events and great matches abound.  It also leads to talk of a “Fifth Major” status for one or the other event.  This talk is not limited to these two locales.  Many people claim the Italian Open or Masters Roma is the fifth major.  During Olympic years, the winner of the gold medal is often discussed as having won the fifth most important event of the year.  What about the World Tour Finals/Masters Cup/ATP World Championships/Masters held at the end of each season?  Is it the fifth most important tournament?  Doesn’t BNP Paribas, who now sponsors Indian Wells, also sponsor and have longer ties with the Bercy in the fall?  Is it then the fifth major?

Does Monte Carlo get Consideration or is it a Masters Emeritus?

Hypothetical Rules for a Permanent 5th Major Designation

  1. The World Tour Finals Despite Offering the Most Computer Points Outside of the Slams is a Different Animal so the WTF is not a Major 
  2. During Olympic Years – The Gold Medalist Holds the 5th Major
  3. During Non-Olympic Years the Tournament with the Best Draw, Best Amenities and Highest Prize Money is the 5th Major
  4. Ignore the Defunct Volvo International and WCT Finals in Dallas Having Once Been Prestigious
  5. Ignore the Growth of Tennis in Asia Despite China having 5th Major Potential

More Trouble than it is Worth

I’d rather listen to “A Fifth of Beethoven” than figure out what is the 5th most important tournament.  The Grand Slams have some normative status.  If a player, like the young Agassi, skipped Wimbledon for several years, it would still be Wimbledon.    Carlos Moya won the Masters Roma title in 2004 and won Masters Cincinnati in 2002.  Moya likely places his Rome title just below his 1998 Roland Garros title and Spain’s 2004 Davis Cup win.  Andy Roddick would likely value his Masters Miami, Canada and Cincinnati titles more than any clay court title outside of the French Open.  Views on the most important titles shift a great deal depending upon a player’s surface preference.

For better or worse, all four Grand Slams have importance that is a given at least since Pete Sampras made breaking Roy Emmerson’s record a public goal.   It is great that Indian Wells is voted as a player favorite venue right now, but that does not confer upon it an added quality to my mind.  It is a great tournament and should just work at staying that way.  Indianapolis was praised in John Feinstein’s book Hard Courts that chronicled the tour in 1990.*  Indianapolis was sponsored by RCA at that time, and players loved the event due to having access to virtual reality and other audio visual prototypes that RCA was developing.  Less than 25 years later, the Indianapolis Tennis Center is now gone, as in plowed under, and a basketball arena sits in its place.  So long as Indian Wells and Key Biscayne/Miami keep holding great tennis events and don’t get plowed under, I will be happy.

Better Days for Tennis in Indianapolis

* – Feinstein referred to Key Biscayne/Miami as the 5th major in 1990.  Therefore if  Indian Wells is now the 5th major, it stands to reason that this title is a short term distinction at best.

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Hall of Fame Talk as Roddick and Ferrero Retire

27 Oct

New Balls We Hardly Knew Ye

The New Balls generation has for the most part been replaced by a few new cans.  Marat Safin and Gustavo Kuerten did not last as long as I would have liked.  Lleyton Hewitt and Tommy Haas are still hanging around.  David Ferrer and of course Roger Federer are still winning events with great regularity.  Former world number one players Andy Roddick and Juan Carlos Ferrero hung up their racquets in 2012.  This dual retirement makes one wonder how the Hall of Fame ballots will shake out for the New Balls generation as well as other active champions.

The Chang – Kafelnikov Hall of Fame Paradox

Michael Chang is in the International Tennis Hall of Fame and Yevgeny Kafelnikov is as of today not.  Chang reached 4 Grand Slam finals winning 1 and reached a career high of #2 in the rankings.  Chang had greater longevity and more Masters 1000/Super 9 success than YK, but Kafelnikov won 2 slams in singles, was runner-up at a 3rd slam final, reached #1 in the world, won an Olympic Gold Medal in singles and won 4 slam titles in doubles.  Kafelnikov is the most recent male player to win multiple slams in singles and doubles.  That has to count for something.

Players who have produced fewer big results than Kafelnikov and more than Chang are in a sort of Hall of Fame Limbo.  Juan Martin del Potro could reach the International Tennis Hall of Fame, but his results of a US Open title, a bronze medal and multiple solid slam showings are not as of yet enough to clear the Chang threshold.  Give JMDP a few more years and maybe he will achieve enough to enter.  Andy Murray is close to passing the Kafelnikov barrier as he has 4 slam runner-up finishes and a fistful of Masters 1000 shields to go with his 2012 US Open title and 2012 Olympic Gold Medal in singles and Silver Medal in mixed doubles.  Murray to my mind is in the Hall of Fame if he retires tomorrow.

Ferrero and Roddick’s Cases

Andy Roddick certainly clears the Chang threshold.  Roddick reached one more slam final than Chang.  Roddick spearheaded the singles for a US Davis Cup victory without the aid of another exceptional singles player such as Sampras, Agassi or Courier.   Roddick reached the #1 ranking and ended a year at #1 in 2003.  Roddick’s consistency and longevity also compare well to Chang’s.  To be blunt, if Michael Chang is in then Andy Roddick should be in as well (Kafelnikov too!).

Juan Carlos Ferrero’s case is tougher.  The Mosquito won a French Open like Chang.  He was the second best player in the world on clay from 2000-2002.  He became the King of Clay in 2003.  From 2000-2003, Ferrero went 23-3 in French Open play.   Chang never had a run like that at any of the slams.  In 2003 Ferrero equaled Chang’s 1996 accomplishment of reaching 2 Grand Slam finals in a single season.  Unlike Chang, Ferrero won a Grand Slam title in his most consistent year.  Ferrero also posted the best Grand Slam record of any player in 2003.  Again unlike Chang, Ferrero reached the #1 ranking.  Ferrero followed up his stellar 2003 with a semifinal showing at the 2004 Australian Open.  From French Open 2002 through Australian Open 2004, a period of 8 majors, Ferrero won one Grand Slam, was runner-up at 2 Grand Slams, reached a Grand Slam semifinal and a Grand Slam quarterfinal.  Then illnesses and injuries hit.

Ferrero lacked Chang’s longevity and consistency.  After early 2004, Ferrero managed to reach only 2 more Grand Slam quarterfinals (both at Wimbledon).  He never threatened for another major after losing to Roger Federer in the final four of the 2004 Australian Open.  Ferrero’s best period shined brighter than Chang’s best years, but his star faded far faster than Chang’s.  Ferrero’s window for greatness was short as he faced Guga at Roland Garros in 2000 and 2001 and Roger Federer’s dominance began in late 2003 or early 2004 depending on how one looks at Federer going 5-0 to win the 2003 World Tour Finals.

Should Ferrero get in?  Scrutiny will accompany the International Tennis Hall of Fame’s decision on Ferrero regardless of what decision is reached.  Had Ferrero beaten Roddick to win the 2003 US Open, he would be in and Roddick would not.  One match flips that result as Roddick almost surely gets in and Ferrero is likely to miss out.  In my view, Ferrero might deserve to get in based on my belief that clay court results can be undervalued.  Still, I think voters will be slow to select him for entry.  He’s likely to be in a similar spot of to the more qualified Michael Stich who is still waiting for entry.

The Status of Other New Balls and Active Players

Of the New Balls generation we know that Gustavo Kuerten is already a member of the International Tennis Hall of Fame.  My guess is that Marat Safin will be enshrined as well.  Lleyton Hewitt’s 2 slams, 2 Year End Championships, 2 years at #1 and tireless longevity put him ahead of the Kafelnikov threshold.  Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are 2 of 3 most accomplished players of the Open Era.  Novak Djokovic is an easy pick for admittance as well.  David Ferrer and Tommy Haas deserve credit for their grit, but minus an unlikely or miraculous  slam title neither will be selected.    To summarize, I think Roddick gets in based on his unwavering consistency as much as anything else.  Ferrero is likely to miss out on admission (maybe they could do a Bruguera through Nadal “Spanish Armada/Siglo de Oro” group induction).  Andy Murray is in, but JMDP still has work to do.

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Andy Roddick in Retrospect

15 Sep

Roddick Start to Finish

I first heard of Andy Roddick during the 2000 US Open final when the announcers mentioned the winners of the junior US Open events.  I saw Andy Roddick’s final match as he lost to Juan Martin del Potro.  I will miss seeing Roddick in major draws.  It became apparent after some health issues scuttled a promising start to 2010 that Andy Roddick was no longer an outside threat to win majors.   Roddick kept plugging away and won in Memphis in 2011 and at Eastbourne and Atlanta in 2012.  Roddick winning at least one title per year for 12 years and finishing 9 consecutive years in the top 10 are among his best marks on the tour.  His US Open title and year end finish at #1 in 2003 are his other great accomplishments.

Roddick Reached His Goals

Andy Roddick set out four goals when he became a tennis pro.  He wanted to win the US Open and Wimbledon titles, he wanted to reach #1 in the world rankings and he wanted to win a Davis Cup title for the United States.  Roddick won the US Open and reached the #1 ranking during the 2003 season.  In 2007, Roddick helped the US win the Davis Cup title.  Wimbledon was not to be, but Roddick was a runner-up in 2004, 2005 and 2009.

Roddick was an Australian Open semifinalist in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009.  He reached two other Australian Open quarterfinal rounds in 2004 and 2010.  His Australian Open results alone outstrip the Grand Slam results of James Blake, John Isner and Mardy Fish combined.  His 3 Wimbledon runner-up finishes were joined by a semifinal finish in 2003 and a quarterfinal finish in 2007.  At the US Open Roddick added a runner-up finish in 2006 as well as quarterfinal finishes in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to his 2003 title.  US tennis had a consistent second week performer in Andy Roddick.  A replacement is not on the horizon.

Did Not Become a National Sports Figure

After Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open and was soon on the Best Damn Sports Show Period laughing it up with retired professional athletes.  Roddick may yet become a national sports figure by pursuing his career in Sports Radio.  He has been a regular guest of Dan Patrick and already has a radio show.  Roddick never got to be a national sports figure for casual tennis fans because Roger Federer frankly blunted his drives for success from 2004-2007 when Roddick had chances to increase his Grand Slam haul.  Roddick had the personality to engage the average US sports fan’s psyche, but he needed more elite results to cross-over.  It just did not happen.  He may have a last laugh in that he beat Roger Federer in their final head-to-head match earlier this year, but Federer will always be linked to Roddick’s career.

My Memories

  • I first remember how heavy Roddick’s second serve seemed when he played some clay court events in the US in 2001.
  • I thought Roddick looked positively awesome in the early rounds of the 2004 US Open (including a shellacking of a young Rafa Nadal) only to lose in the quarters.
  • He had a lot of high profile coaching changes, but Larry Stefanki seemed to be the right man for his late career.
  • I am a Federer fan, but I was gutted to see his composure and pain after the 2009 Wimbledon final.
  • His 2010 win in Miami beating Nadal in the semifinal round and Berdych in the championship match was his last super high point.
  • He won his final head-to-head match with Roger Federer and lost his last Australian Open match to Lleyton Hewitt.

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What is the Story of the US Open? POLL

7 Sep

I almost had the feeling that Tipsarevic would ride negative energy a la Lleyton Hewitt in 2001 after his bout with controversy.  I am glad that did not happen and that tennis, rather than sexism, will be the story of the weekend.

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US Open Day 7 Men’s and Women’s Picks

2 Sep

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Fourth Round

Samantha Stosur (7) vs. Laura Robson - Robson has been on a roll; Stosur is the defending champion.  I Robson keeps winning.

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Anna Tatishvili - Vika should advance.

Maria Sharapova (3) vs. Nadia Petrova (19) – 2-3 years ago Petrova would have been a slight favorite, but today Maria advances.

Petra Kvitova (5) vs. Marion Bartoli (11) – If Kvitova can handle the unique style of play presented by Bartoli, she should win.

Third Round
Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Leonardo Mayer - JMDP should win.

David Ferrer (4) vs. Lleyton Hewitt - I’d love to pick Hewitt, but Ferrer is likely to advance here.  With Roddick retiring, will Hewitt be next?  If so, when?

Richard Gasquet (13) vs. Steve Johnson - Gasquet keeps shedding his flakey image.

Janko Tipsarevic (8) vs. Grega Zemlja

Andy Roddick (20) vs. Fabio Fognini - Roddick’s farewell is extended again.

Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Julien Benneteau (31) – Nole is the favorite to win this event based upon his draw and his status as defending champion.

John Isner (9) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber (19) – I think Kohlschreiber’s variety and low bouncing slice backhand will be enough to clip Isner in a close match.

Alexandr Dolgopolov (14) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18) – Dolgopolov certainly can win this match, but his unorthodox style running into the very workmanlike play of Wawrkina is a fascinating match-up.  I think Stan wins due to persistence and steady purpose on the court.

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US Open Day 5 Men’s Picks

31 Aug

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Second Round
Fabio Fognini vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez – Momentum from beating Monaco carries over for Garcia-Lopez.

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Ryan Harrison – I could see Harrison win a set, but JMDP should advance.

John Isner (9) vs. Jarkko Nieminen – This should be a similar match to John’s win over Malisse.

Leonardo Mayer vs. Tommy Robredo

Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Rogerio Dutra da Silva – Nole rolls

Janko Tipsarevic (8) vs. Brian Baker – Baker FTW

Stanislas Wawrinka (18) vs. Steve Darcis – Darcis’ momentum from Winston-Salem ends here.

Philipp Kohlschreiber (19) vs. Benoit Paire

Gilles Muller vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Sentimental pick

Grega Zemlja vs. Cedrik-Marcel Stebe

Alexandr Dolgopolov (14) vs. Marcos Baghdatis – One of the most unique matches anyone will ever see.  It could be great, or it could be awful.  In an unpredictable match, I’ll take youth.

Julien Benneteau (31) vs. Dennis Novikov

David Ferrer (4) vs. Igor Sijsling – Ferrer was sharp in round 1.

Richard Gasquet (13) vs. Bradley Klahn – Gasquet might make week 2.

Andy Roddick (20) vs. Bernard Tomic -Is this it for Andy?

Steve Johnson vs. Ernests Gulbis – His live arm leads Gulbis to round 3.

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US Open Day 2 Men’s Predictions

28 Aug

Predicted Winners in BOLD

There are a lot of great matches today – I wish I was in Flushing Meadows

First Round
Rogerio Dutra da Silva vs. Teymuraz Gabashvili

Alexandr Dolgopolov (14) vs. Jesse Levine - An upset here would not shock me, but I am going with Dolgopolov.

Milos Raonic (15) vs. Santiago Giraldo - He needs a good result here to continue his momentum.

Thomaz Bellucci vs. Pablo Andujar - I like both players, and this is a 50-50 match.

Steve Darcis vs. Malek Jaziri - Darcis continues his strong form in Winston-Salem

Sam Querrey (27) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu - Sam’s comeback continues.

Dennis Novikov vs. Jerzy Janowicz

Carlos Berlocq vs. Bernard Tomic - I am picking an upset here if solely for Berlocq’s effort last year vs. Nole.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (5) vs. Karol Beck - Jo needs to reach the quarters here.

Edouard Roger-Vasselin vs. Fabio Fognini

Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Paolo Lorenzi - Nole roles

Juan Monaco (10) vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - This is a tremendous first round match and a bad draw for Monaco.  I think Monaco advances, but this is not an easy match on paper.

Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Radek Stepanek - Another tough first round tilt

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. David Goffin - Berdych needs to avoid error prone tennis to advance in another great 1st round match.

Ivo Karlovic vs. Jimmy Wang

Stanislas Wawrinka (18) vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky - Stan could salvage his year in NYC.

Nicolas Mahut vs. Philipp Petzschner - A great match as well

Marcos Baghdatis vs. Matthias Bachinger

Julien Benneteau (31) vs. Olivier Rochus - Another intriguing match for a seed

Andy Roddick (20) vs. Rhyne Williams - Word is that Roddick will play in 2013, but a strong 2012 would shut down a lot of the retirement chatter.

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Power Ranking for the Week of July 23 – July 29, 2012

23 Jul

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of July 23 through July 29

1.  Roger Federer – Fed has spent 288 weeks at #1 with at least a 289th week in the works.

2.  Novak Djokovic – Novak won bronze in 2008.  A gold medal would come with the #1 ranking.

3.  Rafael Nadal – Rafa holds #3, but his withdrawing from the Olympic Games is going to at least temporarily upset the well ordered world of the ATP Tour.

4.  Andy Murray – Can he return to the scene of his last near miss and win a medal for the Union Jack?

5.  David Ferrer –Ferrer won his 5th title of 2012.  He’s on his game and has a good shot at winning a medal in London.

6.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Tsonga is the player in the best position to challenge the top 4.  He nearly beat Nole in Paris and made a solid semifinal showing at Wimbledon.

7.  Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo played well in his first three Wimbledon matches, but was dominated by Ferrer.  Concerns about the big man’s knees are real.

8.  Marin Cilic – A semifinal loss in Hamburg does not derail Cilic’s recent momentum.

9.  Juan Monaco – The Argentine followed up a runner-up finish in Sweden with a title in Hamburg.  Change from last ranking – New comer 

10.  Andy Roddick - Winning 2 of his past 3 tournaments has Roddick in my top 10.  Roddick has had enough success on grass that he is going to be a dangerous opponent at the London Olympic games.  Change from last ranking – New comer

New Comers – Juan Monaco and Andy Roddick

Dropped Out – John Isner and Philipp Kohlschreiber

Biggest Mover – N/A

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Predictions for Atlanta, Gstaad, and Hamburg

22 Jul

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Atlanta Surface – Hard Court

Different tournament, but the same result for these future doubles partners

4 Andy Roddick vs. Gilles Muller

Roddick won Eastbourne and should have a slight edge vs. Muller to win a 2nd title in 3 outings.  Muller has had a knack of upsetting higher ranked players throughout his career.  He beat Andy Roddick in the first round of the 2005 US Open.  Still, Roddick should win this match and head to London with confidence.

Gstaad Surface- Clay Court

1 Janko Tipsarevic vs. Thomaz Bellucci

Janko won last week and should win again this week.  It is nice to see Bellucci playing well as he should be a solid player week in and week out.

Hamburg Surface – Clay Court

Tommy Haas vs. 3 Juan Monaco

I enjoy watching both of these guys play.  Monaco seems like the classic over achiever who competes so well.  Haas is 34 and is the last man to beat Roger Federer on grass.  I think Haas gets the nod as he is playing in Germany and has to be close to the end of his career.  On paper, Monaco has to be favored, but I think Haas wins his second title in Germany for 2012.

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