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First Power Ranking of 2013

29 Jan

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #1 

Post Australian Open Ranking

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole won the Australian Open in convincing style to pick up where he left off in my rankings.

2.  Andy Murray – He is playing quite well, just not quite well enough to have won the first major of the year.  Change since last ranking +1

3.  Roger Federer – The semifinal round down under has been a tough one for Roger.  He’s lost in that spot to Marat Safin in 2005, to Djokovic in 2008 and 2011, to Nadal in 2012 and to Andy Murray in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  David Ferrer – He’s doing all of the right things, but Ferrer was outclassed in the Australian Open semifinal.

5.  Rafael Nadal – The biggest x-factor for the 2013 season.  He could be pushing Djokovic for tour supremacy or he could be slow to work his way back into form.

6.  Tomas Berdych – The big man might have had a chance after Nole went 5 sets with Wawrinka, but a 4 set loss was his reward.

7.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – A 5 set quarterfinal loss leaves Tsonga looking to move up in 2013.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

8.  Richard Gasquet – He won a tune-up for the Australian Open and reached the round of 16 down under.  Change since last ranking +1

9.  Juan Martin del Potro – Not a great start to 2013 for JMDP.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Jeremy Chardy – His quarterfinal showing in Melbourne helps him to break into the top 10.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro -2 

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic and Radek Stepanek

Entered the Rankings – Jeremy Chardy and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

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Who is the Best Australian Open Champion? POLL

28 Jan

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Novak’s Reign

27 Jan

Owning an Event

For a player to pile up a lot of major title, he tends to need to own one event.  Jimmy Connors won 5 US Open titles, Bjorn Borg won 6 French Open titles and 5 Wimbledon titles, Andre Agassi won 4 Australian Open titles, Pete Sampras won 7 Wimbledon and 5 US Open titles, Roger Federer has 7 Wimbledon titles, 5 US Open titles, and 4 Australian Open titles, Rafael Nadal has 7 French Open titles.  Novak Djokovic has now joined Agassi and Federer with 4 Australian Open titles.

The surface in Melbourne so perfectly matches Novak’s game that it is conceivable that he will win several more.  Andy Murray is the only other player who benefits nearly as much from the conditions at Rod Laver Arena.  Murray has posted a 23-4 record over the past 4 Australian Opens.  Djokovic has been the man to eliminate Murray in 3 consecutive years.  Djokovic has a great chance to match or surpass Agassi and Connors’ career totals of 8 major titles.  If he is to get to 10 majors or more, my guess is that at least 6 titles will have to come in Melbourne.  Regardless of the future, it is clear that Novak Djokovic clearly owns the Australin Open right now.

Andy Murray is #2

The computers will say otherwise, but Andy Murray is currently the second best player in the world.  So long as this loss does not drag him down, Murray should be Djokovic’s most compelling rival in 2013.  I hope coach Lendl can keep Murray moving forward.  After all, Murray’s first serve and variety might be more well received at Wimbledon and the US Open than they were in Melbourne.  The difficult thing for Murray fans to consider is just how close he came to being up one set and one break early in the second set.

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Australian Open Final Prediction Murray vs. Djokovic

26 Jan

2013 Australian Open Men’s Final

#3 Andy Murray vs. #1 Novak Djokovic

We have a lot of data to draw upon for this match.  In 2012 alone the two met seven times.  Novak Djokovic defeated Andy Murray in Melbourne, Miami, Shanghai and London.  Andy Murray defeated Novak Djokovic in Dubai, at the Olympic Games, and in New York.  Novak Djokovic is perfectly suited for the courts in Melbourne.  His win in 2008 was a sign of things to come.  The ease with which he won in 2011 and the grit he showed in fending off Murray and Nadal in back-to-back five set matches in 2012 all speak to how hard it is to dethrone Nole.  In 2013, Nole has shown aspects of what led to both his 2011 and 2012 titles.  Djokovic humbled world #4 David Ferrer and also gritted his way past Stanislas Wawrinka.  On paper, Djokovic should win this match.  He bested Murray in their two most recent matches, he bested Murray in 2011 and 2012 at the Australian Open, he had an extra day of rest, and he is playing on a court that is ideal for his game.

Will Novak win?  That is a different question than the on paper analysis.  Prior to the tournament starting, Andy Murray was the only player in the draw who I would give a 40% chance of beating Nole.  After winning five straight set matches and finally beating Roger Federer at a Grand Slam (and overcoming some 4th set failures), I give Andy Murray a 45% chance of winning this match on paper.  Both men return exceptionally well.  This surface favors returners more than the hard courts at the US Open do.  Recently, Murray’s first serve has been a bit of a bigger weapon than Nole’s, but Nole’s second serve is more historically solid than Murray’s.

My head says that Djokovic wins in 4 or 5 sets.  My gut says that Murray pulls of the upset in 4 sets.  I hope that the final is of the same quality as their 2012 Australian Open semifinal.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Andy Murray 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6

 

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Australian Open Women’s Final Pick Li vs. Azarenka

25 Jan

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [1]
v
Na Li (CHN) [6]

WARNING: I have picked against Na Li in the past two rounds and been spectacularly wrong.  Each player enters the third Grand Slam final of her career.  I think Li has more variety than Azarenka and a better serve.  Those two factors give Li more than a passing chance at victory.  The reason I think Azarenka will win is that she moves well and has a great ground game.  She is the number one player in the world and is the defending champion.  Yet, most of this event has focused on Maria Sharapova’s early dominance and Serena Williams’ chances at a calendar Grand Slam.  Vika has a chance to let everyone know that the matches not the press decide how trophies and prize money are distributed.  I think Azarenka has a 55-60% chance of victory.

My prediction is Azarenka d. Li 7-5, 6-2.

 

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Who Will Win Murray or Djokovic? (POLL)

25 Jan

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Australian Open: Federer vs. Murray Pick

24 Jan

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Singles – Semifinal

[3] A Murray (GBR) v [2] R Federer (SUI)

This match is a hard one for me to predict as I can see plausible scenarios for a one-sided result for either man, for a semi-routine four set win for each man, and for a five set thriller.  I do not think Roger going 5 sets will be a factor as he had a day off and played Tsonga in a night match.  I do think the surface favors Murray slightly so I am picking him.  If Murray can get into Federer’s service games and threaten to break serve often, I believe he has a slight edge on paper.  I know Federer beat Murray in 2010 on this surface in straight sets.  Andy Murray is playing better than he was in 2010, but I do not feel that Roger is playing worse than he did in 2010.  Federer has never lost to Murray in a Grand Slam match.  In fact, he has won 9 out of 10 sets in Grand Slam play versus Murray.  Based on history, I think Roger has an edge.  Based on surface speed and Murray’s return game, I think Murray has an edge.  I am torn.  Flip a coin and enjoy the match.

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Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs. David Ferrer Pick

23 Jan

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Singles – Semifinal

[1] N Djokovic (SRB) v [4] D Ferrer (ESP)

The three-time champion, two-time defending champion and world number one enters this semifinal as a heavy favorite.  As well as Ferrer has played in the past 12-15 months, this is a mismatch on paper.  Ferrer did manage to win a set versus Djokovic in the 2012 US Open semifinal round during heavy wind.  Nole’s ability to take the ball early means that he will make/let Ferrer run a lot.  Ferrer has a great return game, but so does Nole.  As a matter of fact, Djokovic likely has a better return game than Ferrer.  Djokovic also has a better serve than Ferrer.  Both guys are going to have to work to hold, but Djokovic has a comparative advantage here.  Djokovic has great defensive skills that will allow him to steal a few points when Ferrer is controlling court position.  However, Djokovic is going to be making Ferrer make use of his sublime defensive skills for most of the match.  I think sheer willpower may earn Ferrer a set, but Djokovic will win in three or four sets.  Both men are going to work hard on court as Ferrer will not go quietly.

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Australian Open Women’s Semifinal Picks

23 Jan

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Women’s Singles – Semifinals

Na Li (CHN) [6]
v
Maria Sharapova (RUS) [2]

Na Li did defeat Maria Sharapova in the 2011 French Open semifinal en route to her lone Grand Slam title.  Sharapova has since captured the French Open title and is destroying her 2013 competition.  Na Li could win especially if she can find a way to pressure Sharapova’s serve.  Also, if she can make Sharapova move, her chances of victory rise.  The reality I see is that Maria Sharapova will advance as she is in the zone.  If Na Li can’t find a way to make Sharapova uncomfortable, this could be pretty one-sided.

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [1]
v
Sloane Stephens (USA) [29]

Stephens pulled the upset of the tournament.  Not having a day of rest will likely help keep her from freezing under a the weight of the situation.  Still, I think Vika is likely to win even if Stephens is playing quite well.  Vika has a chance to win this event, help cement her #1 status and move back into the center of the tennis world.  She has a lot of opportunities to play for something rather than just defend points given that she is #1 and the defending champion.

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Australian Open Day 10 Women’s Picks

22 Jan

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Women’s Singles – Quarterfinals

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [1] v Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) – Kuznetsova has a chance.  Still, the defending champion and world #1 has a method for ceasing to be an afterthought – beat people.  I think Vika wins in 2 tight sets.

Serena Williams (USA) [3] v Sloane Stephens (USA) [29] – Great result for Stephens, but the road ends here.  Serena is looking determined and Sharapova’s steamrolling likely motivates Serena for a top level showdown to decide the title.

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