I think Nadal completes a remarkable comeback by defeating a player who has given him some trouble. Delpo is obviously on a roll beating Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in succession. For JMDP to win he will need to serve big so that he holds routinely. That would give JMDP the opportunity to take big swings and pressure Rafa’s serve. I don’t think that happens. Rafa is showing just why he is one of the greatest ever. He was dominating last Spring and early Summer. He gets hurt and misses 7 months. He comes back and is winning at a high rate again.
Wozniacki is making a move back toward the top 5. That is a great story, but it is hard for me to pick a player who lives and dies on her opponent’s mistakes. Sharapova may lose, but her play is going to determine who wins. I’ll take the agressor to take the title.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) – Et tu Tsonga? Doubtful. Nole advances to the semis.
Andy Murray (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – If Murray is still nuring his Australian Open loss, Delpo has a great chance at an upset. My guess is Murray is slowly moving toward the Wimbledon-US Open stretch with hopes of a decent run on clay. Therefore, an unburdened Murray advances.
Semifinal Round
Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Maria Kirilenko (13) – Kirilenko could win, but the odds are heavily in favor of Sharapova advancing.
Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – I see Caro building on her win over Azarenka with a win here.
Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Kevin Anderson - Kevin Anderson has had a great tournament. Beating David Ferrer and Gilles Simon is no small task. Still, Berdych will be able to hold serve more easily than Simon or Ferrer could. The Big Czech will likely advance due to having a stronger ground game and due to having been in this situation more frequently.
Roger Federer (2) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) - Federer’s 2013 form has been a little dodgy. Rafa is riding a winning streak. This could go either way as Roger beat Rafa at Indian Wells last year. Still, Federer does not seem quite right at this point in the year.
Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – If Caro wants to get back to #1, she will need to win matches such as this one. Azarenka has 2 slams to her name and collected two Olympic medals last year. Wozniacki will need to add hardware such as that if her career is to be remembered as more than a rankings anomaly.
The recent controversy about Caroline Wozniacki’s impersonation of Serena Williams got me thinking about the history of impersonating a player’s ticks or idiosyncrasies. My mind initially thought that Jonas Bjorkman was the progenitor of this fad. His rain delay US Open fodder of lighthearted imitations did indeed pave the way to Djokovic’s 2007 US Open impersonation tour. However, a more contentious and longer history came into my mind the more I thought about the topic. It is doubtful that Rod Laver ever impersonated John Newcombe, but since the late 1980′s impersonations have popped up and generally engendered bad feelings.
1988 – Boris Becker Imitates and Gets Imitated by Pat Cash
Boris Becker won Wimbledon in 1985 and 1986. Pat Cash was the defending champion having claimed the title in 1987. Their 1988 quarterfinal round battle lived up to the hype, but not because of the tennis. Becker won the match routinely 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. Here is how Mitch Album described the memorable events on June 30, 1988:
Well. Let us take you to the second set Wednesday: Becker was leading, 4-1, and Cash came charging, hit a volley winner — and fell over the net.
Fell over the net? Yes. And Becker got so excited, he somersaulted over the net as well. Wheee. Are we having fun, or what? Now we had two guys on the wrong side. Becker was kidding. He offered his hand. Cash was serious. He offered his thoughts.
“What did he say?” someone asked Becker.
“I don’t think I should repeat it,” Becker said. “He taught me some new words in English.”
And the girls screamed. Cash wigs out after losing
But wait. Before you castigate Cash for being a poor sport, let us take you now to the post-game press conference — after Becker had humbled Cash in two hours and 17 minutes. Everyone figured the moody, broody Australian wouldn’t show, right? He had just lost his title.
But here he came, wearing a red punk-rock wig, all spikes and points. The kind that makes you look like Son of Porcupine.
1988 – Agassi Ticks off Connors and McEnroe Simultaneously
Andre Agassi’s first US Open tilt with Jimmy Connors was seen as a passing of the torch as Agassi would assume the mantle as the top US born player. John McEnroe was watching as well. At some point during the match, Agassi imitated McEnroe’s serving motion, an act that infuriated Johnny Mac. Agassi’s post-match comments angered Connors into making a biting paternity joke. Agassi did win the match 6-2, 7-6, 6-1.
1989 – Boris Becker gets Imitated by McEnroe
Boris Becker defeated John McEnroe in an epic Davis Cup encounter in Hartford, Connecticut in 1987 4-6, 15-13, 8-10, 6-2, 6-2. Even before that match, McEnroe and Becker had exchanged tense words and stares dating back to their first match. McEnroe’s autobiography You Cannot Be Serious describes their relationship as generally being that of friendly rivals. At times, tensions did boil over. McEnroe saw fit to challenge perceived gamesmanship on Becker’s part during their semifinal encounter at the 1989 Paris Indoor. McEnroe loudly coughed in response to Boris Becker’s characteristic cough. At a changeover, Becker asked for compassion, and McEnroe retorted that Becker had been sick since 1985. McEnroe calling Becker out for gamesmanship in this manner did not endear him to the crowd and helped inspire Becker to a 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 victory. McEnroe even recounted that this event led to a post-match argument with his first wife.
1998 – Andre Agassi Mocks Karol Kucera
Karol Kucera had a great season in 1998. He reached an Australian Open semifinal and a US open quarterfinal. Along the way, Kucera dispatched of Andre Agassi in the 1998 US Open round of 16 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 1-6, 6-3. Kucera’s return of serve and ability to change the pace and direction of the ball during a rally mystified Agassi. Head games were the only thing that made this match close. Agassi, irritated by either the scoreline or Kucera’s frequently errant service toss, began to imitate a Kucera. Agassi timidly approached the service line and mockingly attempted to toss the ball. Beyond that, Agassi hit moonballs to his upstart opponent. These tactics unnerved Kucera and helped the match extend to 5 sets. Personally, this is the lowest moment of tennis imitations that I can remember. Agassi was simply trying to throw his opponent off through mockery.
The Sampras-Agassi Hit for Haiti Debacle
The first Hit or Haiti was an unqualified success. Major world athletes threw together an enjoyable charity event without the meddling hands of sponsors and agents. It was a feel good event. When Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi were added to the mix for a sequel charity doubles match, things looked great, right? Who would not want to see all-court maestro’s Roger Federer and Pete Sampras take on two men who revolutionized backcourt tennis in Andre Agassi and Rafael Nadal? It did not live up to the hype.
“That aint personal.” (?)
Sampras and Agassi already had some bad blood from Agassi’s recently published autobiography Open. Agassi did not take Sampras’ imitation well and threw out a tasteless imitation implying that Pete is cheap. Sampras went head hunting, and Agassi still pressed his claim of Sampras’ stinginess.
Lessons?
Boris Becker attempted a funny net dive when playing Pat Cash and was repaid by Cash wearing an ugly red wig?!?! John McEnroe’s impersonation of Becker helped to inspire his opponent to victory and started an argument with his then wife. Andre Agassi angered or incited John McEnroe and Karol Kucera with impersonations. Agassi responded badly to Pete Sampras impersonating him. This spiraled to a tit for tat impersonation that managed to ruin a fundraiser for a natural disaster. Caroline Wozniacki, as well as Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic, have made questionable imitations of Serena Williams’ body-type.
My advice is that unless an impersonation serves a purpose and is obviously approved of by the player being mimicked (a la Djokovic’s take on Guga) to not do imitations. My main reason for saying this is not that charitable events or marriages might be threatened. My advice for not doing imitations stems from the fact that impersonations have been done to death and are not terribly comical (Gustavo Djokovic aside). If comedy is not funny, what is it?
The Exception that Proves the Rule? (No Impersonations Unless They are This Funny?)
Caroline Wozniacki’s loss at the US Open may have had injury elements thrown into the recipe, but this is an ominous sign. Last year, many said Wozniacki is uber fit, works hard on her game, and she is the youngest player in the top 10. The Dane winning a Grand Slam did not seem inevitable, but it also did not seem far fetched. 2012 has been a disaster for Wozniacki. She could still turn the tide, but she also seems to be the latest victim of the WTA’s Byzantine ranking system frequently rewarding players with the #1 ranking minus a Grand Slam title. I thought it was bad enough when Lindsay Davenport was routinely claiming the #1 ranking when her most recent slam was years prior. Wozniacki has only reached one Slam final. Caroline is a great ambassador for the sport and is popular with existing fans. Tennis does not need for her to succeed, but success would be a jolt for the sport. Instead, I worry that she is going to make Dinara Safina look like a dominant #1. Safina reached 3 major finals and won a Silver medal in singles in 2008. Wozniacki has time on her side, but she needs to start winning while simultaneously adding a few wrinkles to her game (an improved serve, a few net approaches etc.). My advice to Wozniacki would be to pick the brain of Arantxa Sanchez Vicario and Kim Clijsters.
Clijsters 22-1
Kim Clijsters had one of the most odd winning streaks at the US Open snapped today. Clijsters won the 2005 US Open and retired shortly thereafter. She returned to win the 2009 and 2010 US Opens only to miss the 2011 event with an injured ankle. She won her first round match in 2012 to stretch her winning streak in New York to 22 matches contested over a period of 8 years. Clijsters’ career ends with 4 Grand Slam singles titles, 2 Grand Slam doubles titles, multiple stints as the #1 ranked player in the world, 3 season championships and a sparkling reputation. Clijsters close loss in the 2001 French Open final and a frustrating loss to Jutine Henin at the 2004 Australian Open seemed to doom her to a fate of never winning a slam. In 2005, she reversed that fortune. In 2010, Clijsters backed up her 2009 US Open win with another US Open crown. Clijsters won the season ending title to cap 2010 and won the 2011 Australian Open. A period of dominance from Clijsters seemed to have arrived. Injuries put an end to that. My best Clijsters memory was seeing her daughter on court after both the 2009 and 2010 US Open finals. She also deftly handled an awkward question from Dick Enberg* during the 2005 award ceremony.
John Isner & the McEnroe Brothers
He did Break Milos Raonic in Canada
I have been fortunate enough to interview John Isner on 2 occasions (after his 2009 Indianapolis loss to Robby Ginepri and after his 2009 Cincinnati win over Tommy Haas). John struck me as a nice guy with a good perspective on tennis and on his life. I say this to point out that I personally like and root for John Isner. The McEnroe Brothers have put some heavy expectations on Big John in 2009. I think their predictions are wrong-headed even if I hope that I am wrong myself.
Patrick McEnroe predicted that Isner would make the final weekend at the French Open this year. He had taken Nadal to 5 sets in Paris in 2011, he had beaten Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon on clay in Davis Cup play, he had beaten Roger Federer on an apparently awful indoor clay court in Switzerland in Davis Cup play, and he had finished as the runner-up at the 2012 Houston event on clay. Patrick McEnroe had some justification for this prediction, but come on … it was not going to happen.
John McEnroe recently asserted that Isner landing in David Ferrer’s quarter at the US Open was an opportunity for Isner to make the final four in New York. Isner did reach the finals at Indian Wells in March and won Newport and Winston Salem this Summer. Still, Isner lost a set to Xavier Malisse and needed 2 tie-break sets, & 4th set tie-break heroics to beat a player in his 30′s who last made an impression at the US Open by pushing Andre Agassi to 5 sets in 2005.
Isner’s match vs. Malisse is the perfect example of why he is threat in Davis Cup, but not nearly as much of a threat in Grand Slam play. Isner’s serve gives him a chance to play a lot of close sets. In a one or two match situation like Davis Cup, fatigue from earlier matches does not impact Isner. Also, odd things can happen in one or two matches. If Isner gets stretched out to needing to win 5 three out of five set matches to reach a semifinal, the odds shift against him. Isner’s serve may allow him to put scoreboard pressure on elite players and take his chances in tie-breaks, but his lack of a return game makes journeyman players a risk to him. If Xavier Malisse wins a 4th set tie-break that went 11-9 in favor of Isner, the former Georgia Bulldog is headed to a 5th set.
Isner plays close sets against just about everyone. That means a lesser player can put scoreboard pressure on him by hanging around. Then, these lesser-ranked players can take their chances in tie-breaks against him. Even if Isner disposes of lower-ranked players, long sets and matches take a toll on his conditioning for the next round. I’d love to see Isner in the semi-final, but I think he will be fortunate to replicate last year’s final 8 appearance (the only Grand Slam quarterfinal finish of his career).
* Enberg asked Clijsters what she was doing 1 year ago when she missed the 2004 US Open. Kim was in New York in 2004 cheering on her then fiance Lleyton Hewitt in his 2004 US Open (Rusty was runner-up). Somewhere between September 2004 and early 2005, their relationship had ended in a less than ideal manner.
Novak Djokovic is indeed still the man in the world of tennis. His 60 Minutes interview helped introduce him to a broader audience. He does not have the win-loss record he had at this point in 2011, but Novak has won the biggest event of 2012 and won one of the two other big tournaments of the year. Also, Novak’s win over Andy Murray in Miami dispels any notions that Murray’s near miss in Australia and win in Dubai signal a change in the landscape of tennis.
Roger Federer is alive and kicking. Winning Indian Wells, Dubai and Rotterdam demonstrate that Roger can still string together great events. Indian Wells and Dubai are two of the four biggest events of the year to this point. Roger has to feel like he could win one of the next three slams.
Andy Murray is still not on par with the three people ahead of him. Near misses have to take a toll on Murray’s confidence. I am not sure how he can look at his play in Melbourne, Dubai and Miami and not feel frustrated. Still, I think Lendl is helping Murray. As a friend recently stated, Murray just needs to stay sharp and be ready. At some point, maybe a draw opens up or a player’s form dips. If Murray is ready to capitalize, he can win.
Nadal is a mystery. Rafa has played well enough in 2012 to expect him to continue to be Nole’s top rival, but withdrawing from Miami and dropping off of the ATP council just seem odd.
A legitimate fifth top tier contender has yet to emerge. Milos Raonic has two titles and had one runner-up finish in 2012, but he’s been banged up and not yet won against top competition. Juan Martin del Potro looks like a top 10 player, but his four losses to Federer and loss to fifth ranked David Ferrer tell me Delpo still needs to traverse a gulf to contend for slams again. David Ferrer has played well in 2012. He just lacks the weapons to be on the level of the top four. Finally, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended 2011 on an upward trend and won Qatar to start 2012. Since then, he’s been at best sadly uneven.
WTA – Vika’s Rise, Kvitova’s Malaise and Maria’s Near Misses
WTA Execs would like to see more of the above in 2012
Victoria Azarenka has banked a lot of momentum and computer points. I think Azarenka will finish 2012 number one and likely win a second major before the year ends.
Petra Kvitova has not maintained the level of play that led to her strong finish from 2011. The WTA needs Azarenka, Kvitova, and maybe Wozniacki to produce big stories in the next few years. WTA executives would feel better if these big stories started now and not in 2013 or 2014.
Maria Sharapova is struggling to close out events. In one sense, Maria has had a great 2012. She has been more consistent than anyone other than Victoria Azarenka. She has backed up her number two ranking. However, she has not come close to looking like anything other than second best. Even when she served well Sharapova lost the Sony Ericsson final in straight sets. Asking what could have been too many times is not good for a player’s mind.
Caroline Wozniacki did not look sharp yesterday. She was lucky to not go 3 sets.
Rafael Nadal looks healthy; he also looked healthy in round 1
Donald Young is not as far along as some hoped
Sam Querrey has to feel good about winning a round and taking a set off of Bernard Tomic. Sam is a long way from where he was in 2010, but he is back to playing meaningful matches.
Ivo Karlovic will face a rested Roger Federer
Someone needs to tell Alexandr Dolgopolov he is not being paid by the hour
Overhaul the Challenge System
John Isner recorded a huge 5 set win over David Nalbandian. Still, the outcome is marred by an umpire’s overrule and refusal to allow for a challenge. Nalbandian had a legitimate complaint. The fact is some players do take too long to challenge. Some players use it as a mini-timeout to break momentum and breathe. These abuses of the system need to be addressed.
However, in a sport where shots are being hit very hard and human error is part of the equation, to not allow a challenge on an over rule is just bad form. The line of sight the umpire has is worse than the line judge’s. That is not to say overrules are not often correct, but if ever there was a case for using shot spot this is it. Yet, the application of the system failed.
I think an umpire should have a limited number of challenges that he or she can issue during each set. Sometimes people just don’t know on a call. At a bare minimum, a player with challenges should be able to contest an overrule no questions asked. I still think the option for a few non-player requested uses of shot checking technology per set only makes sense. Players make errors, line judges make errors and umpires make errors. Removing as many of these errors as possible will only help the sport.
Those who follow tennis have often made complaining about the admittedly convoluted leadership structures in professional tennis into an art from. Beyond that, the ATP Tour has enjoyed a lot of continuity among top contenders since 2004. This continuity has allowed for Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic to be marketed globally. The male side of the draw at big events has typically had top talent competing late into tournaments. To make matters worse, the WTA has not had a consistent final weekend draw such as Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova or Steffi Graf to serve as a counter balance to sometimes one-sided early round matches. Women’s tennis has been hurt by a rash of injuries, burn-outs and early retirements that have mangled the tour’s one-time clockwork consistency.
2011 Worked Out Well
Kim Clijsters despite a lot of hard luck later in 2011 posted her fourth Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. She defeated Li Na in a competitive final. Li Na representing a country with a population of over 1 billion did not hurt the WTA or the Australian Open. Clijsters solidified her status as a historically significant champion. The French Open witnessed Li Na win her first Grand Slam singles title. The importance of the Chinese market for tennis cannot be overstated. Li Na splitting with her coach and posting patchy results since Paris is not going to completely deflate what was a monumental win for tennis. Francesca Schiavone reaching a second consecutive French Open final also removed concerns about her 2010 title being a fluke. Petra Kvitova winning Wimbledon added an aggressive-minded contender for future majors. Once again Kvitova has posted patchy results since winning her first major. Still, she plays a good game and should/might be a consistent contender in 2012 and beyond. Maria Sharapova’s Wimbledon runner-up and French Open semifinal resurrected the career of one of tennis’ most recognized players. The US Open also produced a champion in Sam Stosur from a country with great tennis tradition. Her title also perhaps adds a consistent contender on the WTA Tour for the next 2-4 years. Serena Williams’ winning summer run and US Open runner-up finish offered a similar story to Sharapova’s return to the rank of the contenders on tour. Caroline Wozniacki has also continued to be consistent on tour even if she has not yet won a major title.
At the end of the day, two players with great name recognition rebounded while three new Grand Slam champions were crowned that offer something of value to the WTA and ITF women’s events. Women’s tennis is still looking for a super-consistent player who also wins Grand Slam titles. The next Graf or Navratilova has not emerged. Still, Li Na winning the French Open and Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova playing relevant tennis again makes 2011 a good year for the women’s game. Stosur, Kvitova, Wozniacki and Schiavone’s results in 2011 are also pluses going forward.
Work Left to be Done
Some things still need to go well for the women’s game to reclaim some lost territory.
A consistent player committed to a full-time schedule, such as Wozniacki, needs to win several major titles. Kim Clijsters winning three out of six slams in her comeback proves this is possible. Novak Djokovic winning seven non-Grand Slam titles in 2011 helped to tie the ATP Tour’s weekly events into the larger Grand Slam picture. If Serena Williams wins multiple majors while playing fewer than ten total tournaments, the normal portion of the tour seems irrelevant.
Players who break through and win majors need to become consistent forces on tour. Ana Ivanovic’s disappearing act cannot be the blueprint for Li Na, Petra Kvitova and Sam Stosur. At least one of those three players needs to be in contention at (nearly) every event she enters in 2011.
The Hindrance Rule may need to be expanded to encompass grunting. There is clearly a big element of gamesmanship in the grunting and shrieking on tour. Fans seem to be turned off by it, and without fans these events would turn into highly skilled weekend hacker sessions at a park. I am not advocating mob rule, but the shrieking is hurting the sport period.
Serena Williams needs to take some ownership of her role as an elder stateswoman on tour. I did not think her 2011 US Open outburst was all that bad or shocking. She should have avoided saying, “avoid me” to the umpire, but far, far worse things have been said on court. Still, the 2009 outburst was so bad that Serena needs to take her remaining years on tour to try to mend some fences that need not have been ruptured. Serena has absorbed her fair share of unwarranted criticism and bad breaks from officials and that damage need not be mended (We have a challenge system now because of a terrible error in one of her matches.) Still, the 2009 incident was bad and any ripple effects from that behavior should be addressed.
Victoria Azarenka needs to find a way to round out some corners of her game and win a major in the next two years. She simply has too much game to be ranked so highly yet have only reached one Grand Slam semifinal. If Azarenka and Wozniacki start winning majors, women’s tennis would be in a much better place. They are of the right age to take the weekly tour reigns from the still relevant Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. If those four players are near the top and Li Na regains her form while Stosur has Australia reinvested in women’s tennis, the WTA would see an upsurge in popularity.
