Quarterfinals Kei Nishikori (14) vs. Pablo Andujar - A great match for tennis lovers, but I think Andujar will be more fresh and as I said earlier I love Pablo’s game.
Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6) – I think clay helps Berdych here. He can hit through the court whereas Murray’s shots may sit up more.
David Ferrer (4) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Numero uno en Espana es Rafa! This will be closer than Acapulco was though.
Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori - Federer has had a mediocre 2013 by his standards. He also has points to defend. I expect Roger to advance, but a loss would not be shocking.
Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon - In 2008, Simon looked like Murray’s mini-me. This could go either way on clay. I still think Murray advances.
David Ferrer vs. Tommy Haas - A rematch of their Miami semifinal. Haas just won a tournament, but Ferrer on clay in Spain has to be the pick.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco - My first upset pick for May 9th’s slate of matches. Tsonga nearly beat Nole at Roland Garros last year and pushed Rafa in Monte Carlo this year. Still, clay favors Verdasco who needs a signature win.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov - This match is worth the price of admission. Wawrinka just won a tournament beating #4 David Ferrer in the final. Dimitrov took a set off of Rafa at Monte Carlo and beat Djokovic in Madrid. I think Wawrinka’s momentum helps him hold off Dimitrov, but the youngster is making waves.
Andy Murray and David Ferrer had a pair of intense matches at the 2012 French Open and Wimbledon events. Each man took a hard earned four set victory on his preferred surface. Since that time, Murray has won an Olympic Gold Medal and a US Open title. Ferrer led the tour in tournament victories in 2012 and won his first Masters 1000 crown. Both have had some tough losses as well. Novak Djokovic made Andy Murray into a three-time Australian Open runner-up. Ferrer got smashed by Djokovic in Australia and by Nadal in Acapulco. The winner will leave the first portion of 2013 with momentum.
Ferrer Deserves Credit
David Ferrer reached his first French Open semifinal in 2012 only to be crushed by Rafael Nadal. He followed that with a grass court title, a victory over Andy Roddick on grass, and a tough Wimbledon quarterfinal loss to Andy Murray. Ferrer reached the 2012 US Open and 2013 Australian Open semifinal rounds. Novak Djokovic then laid a beating on Ferrer. All David did was go win Buenos Aires and reach the final in Acapulco. Once again he took a one-sided beating at the hands of one of his superiors on tour (this time Nadal). All David has done is reach a Masters 1000 final in Miami. Ferrer is undeterred by some harsh reminders that he lacks the weapons generally needed to claim tennis’ biggest prizes. If he wins Miami, he’ll add that to his Paris title from 2012 and various Davis Cup victories.
Andy Murray is at Home
Miami is a training ground for Andy Murray. He has played quite well at this Masters event. Miami’s slow hard courts are ideally suited for his return game. Murray won Miami in 2009 and was runner-up in 2012. These factors would seemingly bode well for him versus Ferrer. Murray has a 6-5 head-to-head record versus Ferrer. He is 5-1 on hard courts in their rivalry. Still, the 2011 Australian Open semifinal went 4 sets, and Ferrer has had more success versus Murray than any of the other members of the big 4. All of this leads me to predict a close victory for Murray. I think Murray wins his second title in Miami 7-5, 7-5.
Andy Murray (2) vs. Richard Gasquet (8) – Gasquet is re-establishing himself in a big way, but I think Murray is going to win in an entertaining match.
Haas has Beaten Djokovic and Federer Over the Past 52 Weeks
David Ferrer (3) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – I picked against Haas twice, I won’t do it this time. I think Haas can dictate play versus Ferrer is he is zoning, and he appears to be zoning.
Quarterfinals David Ferrer (3) vs. Jurgen Melzer - Jurgen could win, but Ferrer is a guy who tends to win the matches he is supposed to win.
Gilles Simon (11) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – Simon is the player who may be fatigued. Haas beat Federer at Halle last year and Nole in Miami this year. Not bad for a guy in my age range. Still, I think Gilles will grind out a 3 set win.
Quarterfinals
Maria Sharapova (3) vs. Sara Errani (8) – A rematch of the 2012 French Open final will likely produce the same result.
Roberta Vinci (15) vs. Jelena Jankovic (22) – JJ is just not someone I will pick very often in later rounds at this stage of her career.
1. Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.
2. Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising. Change since last Ranking +1
3. Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings. Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show. Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray. Change since last ranking – 1
4. Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players. He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it. Change since last ranking + 2
5. Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time. He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2. My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing. Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis. Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013. Change since last ranking – 1
6. Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5. Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder. Change since last ranking +3
7. David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013. Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him. Change since last ranking – 2
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady
9. Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year. Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer. Change since last ranking -2
10.Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot. Change since last ranking – unranked
2. Andy Murray - He’s posted a 19-2 match record at the 3 most recent Grand Slam events.
3. Roger Federer – Will Rotterdam move Federer into a tie for career titles with John McEnroe?
4. David Ferrer – Horacio Zeballos preserved Ferrer’s #4 ranking.
5. Rafael Nadal – A runner-up finish in his first event back on tour has Nadal in a holding pattern. He did not look rusty, but he lost for only the 5th time in a clay court final.
6. Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year. Change since last ranking +2
7. Tomas Berdych – He did nothing wrong, but the big man had to make room for Gasquet. Change since last ranking – 1
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – See #7. Change since last ranking – 1
9. Horacio Zeballos - Anyone who beats Nadal in a clay court final gets some love. Change since last ranking – Unranked
10.Jeremy Chardy – His quarterfinal showing in Melbourne and semifinal in Chile land him in the top 10, but I would not bank on Chardy or Zeballos staying in my top 10 for long. Marin Cilic could easily occupy the 9 0r 10 slot for this ranking.
The three-time champion, two-time defending champion and world number one enters this semifinal as a heavy favorite. As well as Ferrer has played in the past 12-15 months, this is a mismatch on paper. Ferrer did manage to win a set versus Djokovic in the 2012 US Open semifinal round during heavy wind. Nole’s ability to take the ball early means that he will make/let Ferrer run a lot. Ferrer has a great return game, but so does Nole. As a matter of fact, Djokovic likely has a better return game than Ferrer. Djokovic also has a better serve than Ferrer. Both guys are going to have to work to hold, but Djokovic has a comparative advantage here. Djokovic has great defensive skills that will allow him to steal a few points when Ferrer is controlling court position. However, Djokovic is going to be making Ferrer make use of his sublime defensive skills for most of the match. I think sheer willpower may earn Ferrer a set, but Djokovic will win in three or four sets. Both men are going to work hard on court as Ferrer will not go quietly.
David Ferrer (4) vs. Nicolas Almagro (10) – David Ferrer could reach his 3rd slam semifinal in the past 52 weeks. He led the tour with 7 titles in 2012. He also picked up his first 1000 series title after adding French and US Open semifinal runs to his career achievements. Ferrer is 12-0 vs. Almagro. 12-0! Almagro has the shots to win this match, but consistency, fitness and confidence should take Ferrer to the Final Four. If Almagro does win, he can dust of Vitas’ old line and say, “No one beats Almagro 13 times in a row!”
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Tomas Berdych (5) – Berdych’s biggest career wins came at the 2010 Wimbledon championships where he beat Roger Federer in the quarterfinal round and Novak Djokovic in the semifinal round. Berdych can win a big match versus Djokovic. Berdych also helpd the Czech Republic win the 2012 Davis Cup. Djokovic just played a draining 5 hour match. It all sounds like a good blueprint for an upset. I am not buying though. Berdych does have the ability to hit through the court on any surface, but this surface is ideally suited to Djokovic’s game. Novak recovered from a brutal semifinal versus Andy Murray to win the most brutal match I have ever seen versus Nadal in last year’s Australian Open final. Stanislas Wawrinka does not play the grinding style of Murray. Novak should be fresh enough to win and advance.
