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French Open Memories: Guga

22 May

South American Renaissance

Gustavo Kuerten was not expected to win the 1997 French Open, but he went through accomplished champions and clay court powers in the process.  Kuerten beat fifth seeded and 1995 French Open champion Thomas Muster in the round of 32.  He beat Andrei Medvedev in the round of 16.  He beat defending champion and third seed Yevgeny Kafelnikov in the quarterfinal round.  These three impressive victories were all five set matches.  Kuerten proved his mettle in that three match stretch.  Kuerten then defeated two-time French Open champion Sergi Bruguera in three routine sets to win his first major title.

Guga won with big shotmaking skills that were still raw and a positive fighting spirit that was only extinguished by injuries later in his career. I recall watching Guga in 1997 and liking him but wondering how a player as thin as a rail was hitting such well placed big serves and big ground strokes to beat Muster, Bruguera and Kafelnikov who had been the top players at Roland Garros.

Marcelo Rios of Chile was the 7th seed at the 1997 French Open.  In early 1998, Rios went on a tear and briefly claimed the #1 ranking.  While Guillermo Vilas launched South American tennis and Andres Gomez among others kept it progressing, Guga and Rios led the first wave of large-scale South American prominence in 1997 and 1998.  That along with Guga’s infectious smile seemed to be his biggest legacy.

1999: He’s Elite

While Guga did not get back into the Grand Slam winner’s circle in 1999, he demonstrated a lot of skill and talent in reaching the quarterfinal round at the 1999 editions of the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open events.  Guga entered the 1999 French Open looking like a more powerful and steady player.  His shotmaking skills and fighting spirit were still present, but he added a more substantial game to the frame of what brought him his first slam title.  Guga won the Rome Masters Series event by defeating Patrick Rafter in the final and entered the French Open as a favorite along with defending champion Carlos Moya.  Guga would have to wait, but his talent was obvious to everyone in 1999.

2000 and 2001: Guga Rules

Juan Carlos Ferrero was on the rise.  Alex Corretja was hungry to win a Grand Slam title.  Magnus Norman had been the breakout player of 1999 and reached a Grand Slam semifinal at the Australian Open in 2000.  None of these players prevented Guga from winning back-to-back French Open titles and setting himself up as one of the greatest clay court players of the Open Era.

Guga needed five sets to defeat Yevgeny Kafelnikov in the quarterfinal round and Juan Carlos Ferrero in the semifinal round.  Magnus Norman beat Guga in Rome in 2000 and set up an interesting French Open final.  With Guga coming off of two five set matches and a loss to Norman in a Masters Series final, it would not have been surprising if he had lost, but like 1997 Guga won the title despite a number of long matches en route to the final.

In 2001, Guga defeated Kafelnikov in the quarterfinal round and Juan Carlos Ferrero in the semifinal round once again, but only dropped one set during the two matches.  Guga did survive a five set scare from Michael Russell in the round of 16.  After the match, he drew a heart in the red clay for the French fans.  Guga entered the 2001 final as the betting and fan favorite.  He posted a four set win over the gritty Alex Corretja to cement his status as an elite player.

Kafelnikov as a Good Luck Charm?

Gustavo Kuerten defeated Yevgeny Kafelnikov in the quarterfinal round of all three of his French Open triumphs.  Kafelnikov described Kuerten as being the Pablo Picasso of tennis. Kuerten to me as a joy to watch because he played exceptionally hard, had powerful sweeping groundstrokes and an ability to hit winners from unexpected positions, and because he engaged the crowd with a friendly demeanor.  His injuries in late 2001 robbed tennis of a great champion, but he did rule the French Open for a period of time.  His genius is not forgotten, but it is missed.  One of my greatest memories was watching from the front rows in Indianapolis in 2001 as Guga battled Goran Ivanisevic and Patrick Rafter.  He was amazing to watch in practice as well as during his matches.  His Brazilian fans were giddy with excitement.  It was an electric day.  Sadly, he retired from the match versus Rafter and his career was never quite the same after these injuries.

I miss watching this guy play

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My Problem with the Federer Post Mortems

17 May

My Starting Point

I will put my bias out there and state that Roger Federer has been all-time my favorite tennis player to watch since 2003.  I like his game, his balance, his shot making etc.  I also will bluntly say that Roger is not playing near his career best 2006 level, or his 2004-2007 level, or his 2009 level and to this point not near his 2012 level.  Roger has been off in some tournaments this season.  Close losses to Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych are expected of a 31 year old.  Some of his other stumbles have been uncharacteristic.  Add in a reduced schedule and suddenly a tennis crisis emerges.

Overreaction Central

Roger Federer lost as defending champion in Madrid after skipping Monte Carlo and Miami.  Peter Bodo among others pronounced that Federer was slipping and that even his safe haven of grass might come under assault.  In reality, Federer has lost Halle finals to Lleyton Hewitt and Tommy Haas in recent years.  He lost a two set lead to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Wimbledon in 2011.  He lost in straight sets to Andy Murray in the Olympic Gold Medal round in 2012.  All of this happened on grass.  Roger is not running a grass court streak like he had from 2003-Wimbledon 2008.  Federer might lose a few matches on grass in 2013 and that does not mean he is finished anymore than his 2011 loss to Tsonga ended his hopes of winning Wimbledon again.

Similarly, if Roger has a nice event in Rome, it does not mean he is back to his 2009 clay court form.  Today, Roger Federer beat Gilles Simon on clay.  Federer was once 0-2 in his career matches vs. Simon.  He wins 6-1, 6-2 on his worst surface against a man who has troubled him.  Is Federer back (or is this a silly question) after being given last rites on his flight out of Madrid?  One match or one event is just not smart for judging a veteran and legend of the game.  Short term analysis will lead to Federer looking like a yo-yo.

Where Things Stand

 The fact is that Roger Federer is 31 years old.  He undoubtedly has nagging injuries like all players on tour, but his recovery time is likely slowing from what it once was.  He is still ranked in the top 4, but to this point in 2013 is playing as though he is roughly the 6th best player on tour.  Tommy Hass has won two titles in the past 52 weeks, upset the world number one, and made a serious run at a title in Miami.  Federer is four years younger than Haas.  Roger Federer is scheduling himself as though he is not terribly concerned about his ranking.  This may be a mistake as his 2012 form seemed to benefit from  playing with greater frequency than he had in 2010 or 2011.  Then again the benefit of being ranked in the top four only materializes if the other three players do the same.  Federer learned that Nadal is just as deadly in the quarterfinal round as he is during the final weekend of an event.

Nevertheless, Federer seems to be aiming toward being physically at his best heading into the biggest prizes in tennis.  This may or may not result in an 18th Grand Slam title, but I would not doubt the method too much.  Roger Federer is not the force of nature that he once was on tour.  He is still a player capable of winning big matches.  Federer will need circumstances to break his way more than he once did, but so long as his hunger to win big titles is still there he will be relevant in 2013.  His coach Paul Annacone saw Pete Sampras win Wimbledon in 2000 when his draw opened up enough to reach a championship match on a bad leg.*  Sampras also won the 2002 US Open as the 17th seed.  A lot had to go right for Sampras to win those two events, but he was hungry enough to take advantage of the opportunities that did eventually present themselves.  Undoubtedly, Annacone is preaching the same message to Federer who is not yet taking on water to the degree that Sampras was in 2002.  With Nole and Nadal playing so well, it is not as easy to see a draw breaking wide open for Federer, but to say eulogize his career is just giving into sensationalism.

* Gimelstob, Bjorkman, Gambill and Voltchkov were not a murderers row of opponents.

** This sense of overreaction is not limited to Federer.  Nole left Dubai with some wondering if he would duplicate his record setting start to 2011 and post his best year ever.  After Indian Wells and Miami, some felt Djokovic looked worn out.  He then wins Monte Carlo by beating Nadal and a calendar Grand Slam is discussed.  Then he loses to Dimitrov in Madrid.  Is Nole clearly #1 or slipping?  Hyperbole is the name of the game for analysts these days.

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Masters Madrid Semifinal Predictions May 11, 2013

10 May

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Semifinals

5 Rafael Nadal vs. Pablo Andujar – If Andujar is ever going to win against Rafa, this is his chance.  Nadal played 2 tough sets and a 3rd set versus Ferrer.  Nadal is also seemingly a little rusty.  The altitude in Madrid has never been to Rafa’s liking.  Still, I don’t think anyone sanely picks an upset here.

6 Tomas Berdych vs. 15 Stanislas Wawrinka – Berdych to this point inb 2013 has outplayed Roger Federer and looks like a top 5 player.  Wawrinka is on a serious roll.  This is close to a 50-50 match, but I think Warinka is currently playing the best tennis of his career.  

Semifinals

1 Serena Williams vs. 7 Sara Errani - Serena seems ripe for an upset, and Errani could do it based upon her runner-up finish at Roland Garros in 2012.  Recent form seems to have little impact on how Serena will play in a given situation.  I think Williams is close enough to the finish line in Madrid to win this semifinal.

2 Maria Sharapova vs. 16 Ana Ivanovic - Ivanovic has put together some decent results at different times since her brief stint at number one.  I hope she gets back to the top five, but I am not going to bank on such a rebound at this stage of her career.

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French Open Memories: Steffi Graf 1987-1989

7 May

My first distinct tennis memories are matches between Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe in the 1982 Wimbledon men’s championship and the 1984 US Open semifinal.  Both were five set thrillers, but I did not start following tennis regularly until Boris Becker won Wimbledon in 1985.  French Open matches did not make much of an impression on me until 1987.  For that, I must thank Steffi Graf.

1987: Boredom with the Big Two

Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova staged a tight three set French Open final in 1986.  At 10 years of age, I was a bit bored by how frequently these two met in big matches.  I recall Steffi Graf pushing Navratiolva hard at the 1986 US Open and thinking this is who I will pull for in women’s tennis.  Graf beat Navratilova 6-3, 6-2 in Miami as she started 1987 off on a tear.  Graf moved to #2 in the rankings pitting Navratilova and Evert against one another in a semifinal rather than a final.  Navratilova beat Evert 6-2, 6-2 to reach the final while reversing two consecutive French Open championship losses to Evert.  Graf beat another new face in Gabriella Sabatini 6-4, 4-6, 7-5.  This set up a match that I hoped would usher in a new queen of women’s tennis and end the dual reigns of Martina and Evert.

Maybe Tiriac had it right – this video feed from the red clay and non-high definition cameras is awful

Half of my wish came true.  Graf won her first Grand Slam title by beating Navratilova 6-4, 4-6, 8-6.  Graf won in large part because of how error prone and nervy Navratilova was in that match.  Graf showed mental fortitude by winning a long third set against a great champion, but this was not a dethroning.  Martina would beat Steffi in straight sets to win both the 1987 Wimbledon and US Open titles.  It was exciting for me as a young fan to see my favorite player win her first major, but I feel a bit silly looking back at my disdain for the excellence that Navratilova and Evert displayed.  Then again I was 10 years old.

1988: Double Bagel

Steffi Graf won the 1988 Australian Open, but beat Evert instead of Navratilova in the final. Graf was ahead on computer points due to playing and winning far more events than her veteran rival, but it was still unclear as to who was the best player on the women’s tour.  Graf owned the #1 ranking and reigned in Melbourne and Paris.  Martina was the titleholder in London and New York.  Navratilova expected to win Paris and said as much.  Instead she was shocked by the former #1 junior player Natalia Zvereva.  The young Russian put off a Graf Navratilova showdown until Wimbledon 1988 by winning 6-3, 7-6. As shocking as the match was, Graf administered a career altering defeat of Zvereva by winning the championship match 6-0, 6-0 in 32 minutes.    Graf now had two legs of the Grand Slam under her belt and the debate about #1 was clearing up to a degree.  Her win over Martina in London one month later cleared up any doubts about who the #1 player in tennis was.

My memories of this final all revolve around how quick the match was.  I was elated to see Steffi win yet another slam.  Zvereva went on to become a highly decorated doubles champion, but this loss seemed to sap the joy out of singles for her for many years.  Zvereva saved two match points in her semifinal win and perhaps a big upset followed by a win and a close loss in the French Open semifinal round would have served her better than being demoralized by Graf who was quite invincible that day.

1989: No One Saw It Coming

Steffi Graf won the Golden Slam in 1988.  She opened 1989 with a convincing defense of her Australian Open title.  Some wondered if she would become bored with tennis due to her dominance.  If Graf was going to be beaten in 1989, people figured it would be her contemporary Gabriella Sabatini via a herculean effort.  This was not to be as Sabatini lost in the round of 16.  Graf played a youngster named Monica Seles in the semifinal round.  I remember in the first set thinking how ridiculous it was that Seles was trying to overpower Graf.  That strategy seemed about as wise as trying to drown the ocean.  Graf won the first set 6-3.  In the second set, the player hitting two-handed backhands and forehands (!) did knock Graf out of her comfort zone and took the set 6-3.  Steffi’s experience pulled her through in the third set with another 6-3 set.  Still, Seles looked like a champion to me.*

Challengers Arise

Graf faced Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario in the final.  Graf was taller, had more weapons and seemed like a lock.  Sanchez-Vicario kept running balls down.  NBC tape-delayed coverage foreshadowed the upset by saying Graf only makes headlines if she loses.  However in the age before widespread internet acces, I had no idea who won the match.  NBC showed the first set won surprisingly by the Spaniard 7-6.  NBC then did a quick summary of the second set won by Graf 6-3.  In the final set, I watched as Graf sprayed a number of errors against her never-say-die opponent.  I was both dismayed and shocked as Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario pulled one of the upsets of the decade in a 7-6, 3-6, 7-5 win over Steffi Graf.

Attacking the net helped the tireless retriever win the match

This match was not the end for Graf, but Seles attacked Graf’s slice with power.  Sanchez-Vicario made jaunts into the net off of Steffi’s backhand as well as drawing errors from her forehand.  There was now a book with several chapters on how to play against the invincible champion.  Steffi from 1987 through 1989 took me as a fan through a ride of challenging the powers that be, to becoming the lone power in women’s tennis and finally to being dethroned in Paris.  Graf would have to wait until 1993 to win the French Open again.  It was a great ride as a fan.  Steffi also provided a few more French Open memories that I will get to in the coming days.

Tyson losing to Douglas was a lot like Graf losing in this situation

* In early 1990 when everyone was hyping Jennifer Captiati, I kept thinking that Seles was the real story.

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French Open Memories: Agassi vs. Courier 1989-1992

4 May

I will be sharing some of my favorite French Open memories between now and the start of the 2013 French Open. My first subject is Andre Agassi versus Jim Courier.  Once upon a time it was rare to see the same players match-up year after year at slams in men’s events.  Jim Courier and Andre Agassi went toe-to-toe in four consecutive French Opens.  The two had a great deal of history and at times disliked one another.  In 1989, 1990 and 1991 Courier felt he had played second fiddle to Agassi.  At their 1992 match in Paris, Agassi seemed unsure of himself as Courier was piling up big wins and holding the number one ranking.  Each man helped to usher in an era of taking the ball early and hitting hard.  Each man saw his success on tour increase as his game rounded out beyond just blasting away.  Courier upped the level of fitness on tour.  Agassi’s long career impacted several generations of junior players.  Agassi also brought a greater use of weight training into tennis despite initial skepticism about this move.  Courier vs. Agassi was a story at Roland Garros over four years.  By the end one man had established dominance in this French Open rivalry, but by 1999 the other would complete a career Grand Slam at Roland Garros.

1989 Bollettieri’s Boys 

Andre Agassi had a huge 1988.  He won six events, finished in the top 5 in the rankings and reached the semifinal round at both Roland Garros and the US Open.  Jim Courier was unknown to casual tennis fans.  Still, the two had grown up together playing at Nick Bollettieri’s tennis boot camp.  Agassi entered the 1989 French Open as a contender.  Courier stood in the way of Agassi reaching the round of 16.  Both players were from the US, were roughly the same age and tried to take the ball early and smack big forehands.  Bollettieri was faced with a choice and sat with Agassi’s camp during their showdown.  Courier proceeded to overpower Agassi over two-days.  The young Floridian announced his presence on tour by winning 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.   Michael Chang stole Courier’s thunder by winning the event even if Sports Illustrated gave Courier some love at the midpoint of the event.  Courier blew a lead in the round of 16 and left Bollettieri’s charge shortly after the event.  Courier -1 Agassi – 0

1990 Strength Pays Off

Andre Agassi entered the 1990 French Open as the favorite in the eyes of many because Ivan Lendl was not playing the event and Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg seemed less imposing on red clay than they did on grass.  Agassi had also embraced weight training and looked thicker than his 1988 and 1989 editions.  The draw pitting Courier and Agassi against one another in the round of 16 was intriguing.  It seemed that if anyone would stop Agassi in Paris in 1990 it would be Courier.  Becker and Edberg lost in the first round to some no-names named Goran Ivanisevic and Sergi Bruguera.  Michael Chang couldn’t beat Andre could he?  Maybe Thomas Muster could stop Agassi, but it appeared that Andre was on his way to his first Grand Slam title.  Courier was the only guy with the power to maybe stem Agassi’s momentum.  The match played out like two heavy hitters trading massive shots in the first set with Courier taking a tiebreak set.  Agassi then bullied Courier around the court for the next three sets.  Agassi was well inside the baseline and sent Courier running mercilessly from side to side.  Agassi won the match 6-7, 6-1, 6-4, 6-0.  Andre would beat Michael Chang in a four set quarterfinal and Jonas Svensson in a four set semifinal.  He lost to Andres Gomez in, you guessed it, four sets.  Agassi – 1 Courier -1

1991 Rain and Pain

If Agassi was favored at the 1990 French Open, he was a huge favorite at the 1991 event.  Andre had taken two Grand Slam championship losses in 1990.  Agassi was strong, he had experienced some bitter near misses, he had the ability to take the ball early and control rallies on clay.  In short, experts felt it was his event to lose.  Andre battered his way to his second consecutive final by roughing up Boris Becker 7-5, 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in the semifinal round.  Jim Courier reached the final by taking out top seed Stefan Edberg in the quarterfinal round 6-4, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4.  He beat the never to beard of again Michael Stich 6-2, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 to set up a third Roland Garros meeting with Agaasi.

This match was my favorite of their four French Open clashes.  Courier had beaten Agassi at Indian Wells in 1991.  He followed that momentum with an Indian Wells title and a title at Key Biscayne to enter the top 10 in the world.  Courier had also made a nice showing at the 1991 Australian Open by pushing Stefan Edberg to five tough sets.  Agassi was still the favorite as he had won four of their six professional meetings to that point and was seeded fourth to Courier’s ninth.  The dynamic of each man growing up together and not liking each other very much was still present.

Agassi took the first set in what looked like a continuation of their 1990 match.  Courier was good, but Agassi’s ability to see the ball so well and take the ball so early looked to be too much for Courier. Agassi jumped to an early break lead in the second set.  Rain delays and coaching made a big difference in this match.  Andre Agassi claimed in his autobiography Open that Bollettieri said nothing during the rain delays.  Courier’s coach Jose Higueres, who worked with Michael Chang in 1989, advised his charge to stand further back during serve returns to make sure he placed a deep return of serve and pushed Andre Agassi deeper into the court.  Higueres had also worked with Courier on mixing placements and spins and not simply trying hit the ball as hard as possible on every point.  Courier managed to win the match 3-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-1, 6-4.  Popular perception saw Courier’s fitness regiment, his growing sense of tennis strategy and his professionalism as superior to Agassi’s emphasis on weight training, eating who knows what and Bollettieri inspired blast away mentality.  This trope proved to not be completely accurate, but it was how the rivalry was cast over the next two years.    Courier -2 Agassi-1

1992 Courier in Command

Both men worked their way to the semifinal round of the 1992 French Open to see the other in his path.  Courier followed up his 1991 French Open title with a US Open runner-up finish and 1992 Australian Open title.  Courier achieved the #1 ranking and held two Grand Slam titles entering this match.  Agassi had yet to win a major and whispers were growing that he might never win a major.  Courier struggled a bit with the pressures of being number one in the early portions of 1992, but he was firmly number one after winning three consecutive events entering the 1992 French Open.  Courier’s 1992 run to the title included wins over an impressive array of opponents.  He beat Andrei Medvedev, Aleberto Mancini, Thomas Muster, Goran Ivanisevic, Andre Agassi and Petr Korda in succession to take the title. Agassi entered this match with a lot of talent, but not a lot of confidence.  Courier hammered Agassi 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in a match that failed to live up to the hype.  Anyone watching saw a player with a bigger serve, greater fitness, a better grasp of strategy, and a higher level of mental fortitude methodically take apart his opponent.  Agassi would of course take his first Grand Slam title one month later at Wimbledon.  Courier then beat Agassi in a testy four set US Open quarterfinal in 1992 in a match featuring the two Grand Slam champions to that point in 1992.  Courier – 3 Agassi 1

Final Thought

Courier and Agassi are now friends who play exhibitions on a frequent basis.  The notions that Courier would be another Jimmy Connors playing deep into his thirties never materialized.  Agassi’s superior hand-eye coordination along with his growing sense of tennis strategy and tactics led to him having the longer career of the two. Nick Bollettieri also shed the image that he knew nothing about tennis and could not coach by guiding a myriad of players to success.

I rooted for Courier in all four of these clashes.  I was thrilled to see Courier breakthrough in 1989 (I had heard of him prior to this match), to see him rally in 1991 and to see him dominate Agassi in 1992.  I also watched in horor as Agassi laid a beating on Courier in 1990.  The great thing about a rivalry that produces a lot of matches is that a fan can pick a side and enjoy.  I also played junior tennis during the height of this rivalry so I got to see how average players embraced aspects of Agassi and Courier’s games and habits.  I have never seen as many baseball caps on a tennis court as I did at the 1991 Joe Creason USTA Southern qualifying event in Louisville, Kentucky that took place at the same time as the 1991 French Open.

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Nadal’s Reign: Unrelenting Supremacy

18 Apr

King Rafa 2005 – ?

Can anyone stop a prepared Nadal on clay?  That is a question that has been hounding professional tennis since 2005.  There are a few scenarios for how Nadal might lose a match on clay, but these scenarios become even less likely when a match moves to a best of five set format.  I think for someone to dethrone Nadal on clay, he will need to be a fitness freak and fighter a la Ferrer, have a return game somewhere along the lines of Murray or Nole’s, and be able to take control of points with massive ground strokes.  I don’t see that player on tour right now.   The junior ranks are where we are most likely to find a physical specimen who has enough of a willingness to fight to have a chance to dethrone Nadal.  I hope that we get to see a young lion push Nadal rather than see injuries lead to the close of Rafa’s clay court dictatorship.

Scenarios for a Nadal Loss During The 2013 European Clay Court Season

Don’t Count on Seeing a lot of This

Being the best player in the world on clay does not preclude one or two losses.  Here are some scenarios for Nadal losing matches during this European clay court season.

  1. Novak Djokovic has a great day.  If Novak gets into enough of Rafa’s service games, even on clay, he can win matches.  Odds: 20 to 35%
  2. Del Potro or Berdych follows the Soderling blueprint.  Odds: 15% for a 2 out of 3 set match and 10% or less at Roland Garros.
  3. Federer has a day where he does not miss.  Not missing on clay versus Nadal is not something we have seen from Federer.  At 31, it is less likely.  Odds: 2%
  4. Ferrer or another speedy baseliner takes advantage of a health ailment a la Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2008.  Odds: 10% or Less
  5. Nadal loses after a long layoff.  We saw this happen in Chile earlier this year.  The problem for the tour is that Rafa’s team are not fools.  He played the Latin American clay court circuit to avoid rust during the European clay court season. Even a rusty Nadal put together an impressive run in Latin America.  Odds: N/A as he is not rusty
  6. Blue Clay – Nadal hated blue clay and lost on it last year.  Odds: N/A blue clay is no longer a part of the tour
  7. A big server such as Isner or Raonic wins a match with a lot of tiebreaks.  This could happen in a two out of three set scenario.  It is hard for me to see Nadal lose 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 at Roland Garros.  Someone would have to serve out of his mind to pull this strategy off for three sets versus Nadal.  Odds: 5 to 10%

A Few Reasons for Nadal’s Clay Court Success

  1. An aggressive game that has a high margin for error.  Nadal’s shots aggressively beat up his opponents.  Yet, he makes few errors.  It is a nice combination that few can achieve.  
  2. Fitness and Mental Fight: Nadal will not give in, just ask Coria or Federer about 5 set matches on clay.  Despite a history of injuries and knee issues, Nadal seems to have a high energy level during individual matches or tournaments.  He may pay the price months later, but that fact does not help people win matches against him in the short term.
  3. His left-handedness is an edge.  Most players work their opponent’s backhand.  Playing Nadal means reversing the flow of shots one hits 90% of the time.  Hitting into Nadal’s forehand is a poor idea.  This is especially true on clay.
  4. Movement – Nadal not only plays with a high margin for error, but he can stay in points in which he is not dictating.  This forces many players to try for even bigger shots or even more extreme angles.  That only ratchets up their error totals and mental duress.
  5. Soft Courts: Nadal loves to compete and concentrates like no other on tour.  Clay courts allow for him to utilize these skills with a minimal level of impact on his knees and feet.  Rafa has tendonitis and has had two stress fractures in his feet.  Clay does not prevent tweaking these conditions, but it minimizes their impact allowing for his competitive spirit and preternatural focus to be more or less uninterrupted by physical distress.

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Tennis History: Nadal and Sharapova

14 Jun

A Trip Inside my Unofficial Historical Tennis Rankings

The 2012 French Open is in the books.  Sadly, the quick transition to grass rarely allows for the full impact of this event to be appreciated until later in the year.  Still, Rafael Nadal and Maria Sharapova made a great deal of history.  Here is a quick look at what I think each player’s win meant to each player’s legacy.

Rafael Nadal is At Worst the 3rd Most Decorated Post-Laver Champion

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Certainly Nadal can be reasonably argued to be ahead of Pete Sampras and Roger Federer in terms of his legacy.  I think one can reasonably argue that Sampras and Federer are ahead of Nadal’s legacy.  I do not think Bjorn Borg is still in this mix.  I already felt Nadal was ahead of Borg due to his 2009 Australian Open title, 2010 US Open title and 2008 Olympic Gold Medal victories all being achieved on hard courts.  Borg did reach 6 consecutive Wimbledon final matches and did win 5 consecutive Wimbledon titles.  Rafa has won 2 Wimbledon titles, been a Wimbledon runner-up 3 times and won the 2008 Queen’s Club title.  Rafa is behind Borg in terms of grass court accomplishments, but he is distinctly ahead on clay and quite far ahead on hard courts.  Admittedly, more hard court opportunities exist today, but I would argue that Nadal’s tennis legacy is now ahead of Borg’s.

Beyond that, Nadal joins Pete Sampras as the only male players of the Open Era to win the same major 7 times.  Nadal’s clay court dominance surpasses’ Sampras’ mastery of grass due to Sampras losing matches at Wimbledon to Goran Ivanisevic and Richard Krajicek during his prime as well as losses at various Queen’s Club outings.  Nadal has owned Paris, Rome, Monte Carlo and Barcelona.

Maria Sharapova Wins a Career Grand Slam

*

The career Grand Slam is slightly more common in women’s tennis than in men’s, but Sharapova winning all 4 majors in her career is big for her legacy.  Her comeback from being ranked outside of the top 100 is more impressive to me than Agassi’s comeback from his 1997 implosion because falling out of the top 100 in the women’s game is harder to do.  Can she win at the rate Agassi did from 1999-2005?  Who knows, but the act of coming back to number 1 after such a long break is a testament to hard work.  Maria’s career slam places her legacy ahead of players such as Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario, Kim Clijsters, and Martina Hingis.  Sharapova is in the mix of the best players in the Post-Graf-Seles Era behind Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Justine Henin.  I think Maria could reasonably pass Venus and Justine’s legacies.  It just depends on how long she plays and how healthy she remains.

* We also find out what Fred Stolle is doing these days

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Power Ranking for the Week of June 11 – June 17

11 Jun

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of June 11 through June 17

The French Open Reshapes My Top 10

1.  Rafael Nadal - A French Open title, two Masters 1000 titles and 3 consecutive wins over Nole have Rafa moving into the top spot.  Change from last ranking +1

2.  Novak Djokovic – Nole surrenders the top spot in my non-binding Power Ranking.  Nole should welcome a chance in surfaces.  Change from last ranking – 1 

3. Roger Federer – The Fed has won a lot of matches and tournaments since the 2011 US Open closed.  Still, he is clearly behind two younger players.  His confidence and mental toughness have dipped against Rafa and Nole too.

4.  David Ferrer - A semifinal in Paris was rewarded with a beating from Rafa.  I will be more kind and reward David with a slot in the top 4.  Change from last ranking +1

5.  Juan Martin del Potro - Delpo is looking solid so long as he can remain healthy.  Confidence and health are all the stands between JMDP and the #3 ranking.  Change from last ranking + 2

6.  Tomas Berdych - If you are looking for a Wimbledon dark horse Berdych is a good candidate.  In 2010, he beat Federer and Djokovic at SW19.  Berdych has been solid in 2012 and will benefit from the surface change.  Change from last ranking – 2

7.  Andy Murray - What has happened to Andy’s promising start to 2012?  I am predicting that the Lendl experiment will not last beyond the US Open. 

8.  Nicolas Almagro – He played Nadal as tough as anyone in the first 6 rounds of the French Open.  Almagro’s serve and power give him a shot at a nice hard court season. 

9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Tsonga turned his game on at the start of the 2011 grass court season.  If he uses some momentum from the French Open, Tsonga could have a big remainder to the year.  If he worries about defending points, Tsonga will struggle.  Change from Last Ranking – Not Ranked

10.  Milos Raonic – He played well enough in Paris to think he could have a big summer on surfaces that reward his serve a bit more.  Change from last week – Not Ranked

Biggest Movers – Rafael Nadal moved to number 1 &  Novak Djokovic dropped off of number 1

Dropped Out of the Rankings – Gilles Simon and Janko Tipsarevic

Entered the Rankings – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic

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2012 Men’s French Open Final: #1 Novak Djokovic versus #2 Rafael Nadal – Can Godzilla Be Stopped?

9 Jun
  

This match is what every tennis fan has been wanting since the conclusion of the 2012 Australian Open.  Nadal pushed Djokovic for nearly 6 hours (6 hours!) in Melbourne.  Can Rafa reverse the tide of 3 consecutive Grand Slam final losses to Novak?  If Monte Carlo and Rome’s results are to be taken seriously, the answer is yes.  If Nadal’s history in Paris is considered, the answer is yes.  In fact, Nadal is the clear favorite in this match despite Nole’s 27 consecutive Grand Slam match wins and 3-0 record versus Rafa in slams during that stretch.

History: Rafa vs. Borg & Nole vs. Laver

Eclipsed?  A commentator on NBC mentioned Rafa having a chance to eclipse Bjorn Borg if he wins the French Open.  This seems kind of like saying a Siberian Tiger eclipses a Bengal Tiger in size.  Still, Nadal owning the most French Open crowns is a unique opportunity for Rafa.

I think Novak Djokovic being the reigning champion at all 4 majors would be there greatest accomplishment in tennis history.  That is all Nole has on the line during the final.

Beyond all of this, Novak can complete a career Grand Slam.  Novak has joined Rod Laver and Andre Agassi for stringing together 4 consecutive Grand Slam finals.  Rafael Nadal is in sole possession of the 3rd best streak of Grand Slam finals with 5 consecutive.  Roger Federer still owns the best streak of 10 and second best streak of 8 consecutive Grand Slam finals.

Why Novak Could Win: Does He Have an Oxygen Destroyer?

I tweeted this at the outset of the French Open,  ”Beating Nadal on clay is like beating Godzilla.  Sure someone might invent an oxygen destroyer, but the odds are against it.”  If anyone has the tennis equivalent of an oxygen destroyer it is Novak.  I think Nole can win if he serves bigger than Rafa and then is willing to pay the price and play a lot of long points.  The reason I say this is that Novak is still the best returner of serve in the world.  This is an edge he could exploit and break serve often enough to win the match.

Why Rafa Could Win: Clay Court GOAT

I am not sure I need to answer this.  Rafa destroyed Juan Monaco who is a top flight clay court player.  Rafa dominated David Ferrer the #6 player in the world.  Rafa is dismantling people on clay this year.  He is also the greatest clay court player of all time.

 Who Wins?

I am going out on a limb here and picking Novak Djokovic.  If he is willing to pay the price, he can win this match.  I think Novak has been pointing toward this opportunity since winning the Australian Open.  I am not going to read anything into Novak’s 2012 losses to Andy Murray and John Isner.  I think Rafa soundly beat Novak in Monte Carlo and Rome.  My pick is based upon the idea that Novak knew he only has one clay court war in his body.  I think he has saved it for this match.  That does not mean Novak will win, but I do think this will be more of a war than Rome or Monte Carlo were.  Logic says that Rafa wins, but I am a nut for tennis history and may be clouded by my desire for seeing something sublime occur.

My Pick Novak Djokovic in 4 Sets

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Update – Women’s Final Breakdown & Men’s Final Preview

9 Jun

I will have both of these up later today.  As an aside, my 23 month old son is quite captivated by tennis.  He is mimicking the Sharapova and Errani as I type.

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