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Who Needs a 5th Major?

26 Mar

Four or Five or?

The Indian Wells-Miami section of the tour is a great stretch for tennis fans.  Most of the top players on the ATP and WTA play both events and great matches abound.  It also leads to talk of a “Fifth Major” status for one or the other event.  This talk is not limited to these two locales.  Many people claim the Italian Open or Masters Roma is the fifth major.  During Olympic years, the winner of the gold medal is often discussed as having won the fifth most important event of the year.  What about the World Tour Finals/Masters Cup/ATP World Championships/Masters held at the end of each season?  Is it the fifth most important tournament?  Doesn’t BNP Paribas, who now sponsors Indian Wells, also sponsor and have longer ties with the Bercy in the fall?  Is it then the fifth major?

Does Monte Carlo get Consideration or is it a Masters Emeritus?

Hypothetical Rules for a Permanent 5th Major Designation

  1. The World Tour Finals Despite Offering the Most Computer Points Outside of the Slams is a Different Animal so the WTF is not a Major 
  2. During Olympic Years – The Gold Medalist Holds the 5th Major
  3. During Non-Olympic Years the Tournament with the Best Draw, Best Amenities and Highest Prize Money is the 5th Major
  4. Ignore the Defunct Volvo International and WCT Finals in Dallas Having Once Been Prestigious
  5. Ignore the Growth of Tennis in Asia Despite China having 5th Major Potential

More Trouble than it is Worth

I’d rather listen to “A Fifth of Beethoven” than figure out what is the 5th most important tournament.  The Grand Slams have some normative status.  If a player, like the young Agassi, skipped Wimbledon for several years, it would still be Wimbledon.    Carlos Moya won the Masters Roma title in 2004 and won Masters Cincinnati in 2002.  Moya likely places his Rome title just below his 1998 Roland Garros title and Spain’s 2004 Davis Cup win.  Andy Roddick would likely value his Masters Miami, Canada and Cincinnati titles more than any clay court title outside of the French Open.  Views on the most important titles shift a great deal depending upon a player’s surface preference.

For better or worse, all four Grand Slams have importance that is a given at least since Pete Sampras made breaking Roy Emmerson’s record a public goal.   It is great that Indian Wells is voted as a player favorite venue right now, but that does not confer upon it an added quality to my mind.  It is a great tournament and should just work at staying that way.  Indianapolis was praised in John Feinstein’s book Hard Courts that chronicled the tour in 1990.*  Indianapolis was sponsored by RCA at that time, and players loved the event due to having access to virtual reality and other audio visual prototypes that RCA was developing.  Less than 25 years later, the Indianapolis Tennis Center is now gone, as in plowed under, and a basketball arena sits in its place.  So long as Indian Wells and Key Biscayne/Miami keep holding great tennis events and don’t get plowed under, I will be happy.

Better Days for Tennis in Indianapolis

* – Feinstein referred to Key Biscayne/Miami as the 5th major in 1990.  Therefore if  Indian Wells is now the 5th major, it stands to reason that this title is a short term distinction at best.

Tennis Power Ranking 2013: Indian Wells

17 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #4

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.

2.  Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising.  Change since last Ranking +1

3.  Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings.  Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show.  Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players.  He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it.  Change since last ranking + 2

5.  Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time.  He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2.  My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing.  Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis.  Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5.  Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder.  Change since last ranking +3 

7.  David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013.  Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him.  Change since last ranking – 2

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic

Entered the Rankings – Milos Raonic

March 15, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions or Et tu Tsonga?

15 Mar

Beware the Ides of March

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinal Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) – Et tu Tsonga?  Doubtful.  Nole advances to the semis.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – If Murray is still nuring his Australian Open loss, Delpo has a great chance at an upset.  My guess is Murray is slowly moving toward the Wimbledon-US Open stretch with hopes of a decent run on clay.  Therefore, an unburdened Murray advances.

Semifinal Round

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Maria Kirilenko (13) – Kirilenko could win, but the odds are heavily in favor of Sharapova advancing.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – I see Caro building on her win over Azarenka with a win here.

March 14, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

14 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinals

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Kevin Anderson - Kevin Anderson has had a great tournament.  Beating David Ferrer and Gilles Simon is no small task.  Still, Berdych will be able to hold serve more easily than Simon or Ferrer could.  The Big Czech will likely advance due to having a stronger ground game and due to having been in this situation more frequently.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) - Federer’s 2013 form has been a little dodgy.  Rafa is riding a winning streak.  This could go either way as Roger beat Rafa at Indian Wells last year.  Still, Federer does not seem quite right at this point in the year.

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – If Caro wants to get back to #1, she will need to win matches such as this one.  Azarenka has 2 slams to her name and collected two Olympic medals last year.  Wozniacki will need to add hardware such as that if her career is to be remembered as more than a rankings anomaly.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Samantha Stosur (7) – Kerber seems the less likely to blink if this match gets close.

March 13, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

13 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Fourth Round

Andy Murray (3) vs. Carlos Berlocq - Murray should win in two easy sets as Berlocq has no weapons to threaten Murray.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Ernests Gulbis - Gulbis is on a hot streak and Nadal is maybe not sure about hard courts.  Still, Rafa is the smart pick.

Gilles Simon (13) vs. Kevin Anderson - Simon has struggled versus Isner who is the best analog for Anderson I can find.  Also, Anderson beat Ferrer who is a good analog for Simon.  I love Gilles’ game, but the big man advances.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Sam Querrey (23) – Sam beat Nole last fall.  Lightening is not going to strike twice.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18) – Stan may seem due to beat Roger , but for the most part this is a one-sided friendly Swiss rivalry.

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Richard Gasquet (10) – Two of the hottest players in 2013 collide.  I think Berdych wins due to having more weapons even if his game is less imaginative than Gasquet’s.

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Delpo already got to beat up on Davydenko and Hewitt.  I think the oldest man in the draw pulls off a mild upset to avenge the other veterans.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – Milos has to breakthrough at some point; why not now?

March 12, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

12 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Third Round

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Bjorn Phau - Delpo should win in a straightforward match.

Sam Querrey (23) vs. Marinko Matosevic - USTA, “Help us Sam Querrey.  You’re our only hope.”

Andy Murray (3) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu - Murray wins

Kei Nishikori (16) vs. Carlos Berlocq - On paper, Nishikori should win, but I think Berlocq’s Latin American clay court run has him match tough.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (31) – Nole in 2, but this match is worth the price of admission.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Mardy Fish (32) – Will Tsonga take out Blake and Fish?

Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Almagro should win based on his 2013 Australian Open run, but I think Haas will advance due to a friendly crowd and surface for his game.

Marin Cilic (12) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – This is the most interesting match of the day.  The Croatian versus the Canadian with Serbian roots.  One is reclaiming lost momentum in his career.  The other is trying to move into another tier.  I think Raonic will win because he does have a top 5 serve even if the rest of his game is a work in progress.

March 11, 2013: Indian Wells Match Picks

10 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

[5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Leonardo Mayer (ARG) – Rafa rolls

Ivan Dodig (CRO) v [2] Roger Federer (SUI) – Federer wins

Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) v [18] Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) – Call me nostalgic, but I think Rusty wins unless Stan returns well.

Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) v Kevin Anderson (RSA) – The big server beats the veteran.

[20] Andreas Seppi (ITA) v [Q] Ernests Gulbis (LAT) – Gulbis is en feugo

[6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) v [27] Florian Mayer (GER) – Berdych is one to watch in 2013.

[24] Jerzy Janowicz (POL) v [10] Richard Gasquet (FRA) – This is a tough one to call.  Jerzy has a massive serve (and a massive temper).  Gasquet has won two events in 2013.  I’ll take Gasquet and go against my previous policy of always picking against Gasquet.

[13] Gilles Simon (FRA) v Benoit Paire (FRA) – Simon wins a French Civil War.

March 10, 2013: Indian Wells Match Picks

9 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

STADIUM 1 Start 11:00 am

[32] Mardy Fish (USA) v [Q] Bobby Reynolds (USA)

[3] Andy Murray (GBR) v Evgeny Donskoy (RUS)

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Fabio Fognini (ITA) – This should be entertaining, but Nole should also roll.

[WC] James Blake (USA) v [8] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) - An upset is possible here, but only if Tsonga is off of his game.

STADIUM 2 Start 11:00 am

[12] Marin Cilic (CRO) v Albert Ramos (ESP) – Cilic has made a nice return to the top 20 after his promising 2009 and early 2010.  Ramos is capable of the upset though as Cilic can throw in a bad match from time to time.

Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v [7] Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) – The 2009 World Tour Final  championship match revisited.  JMDP should advance.

[23] Sam Querrey (USA) v [Q] Ivo Karlovic (CRO) – Expect tie-breaks to be played

STADIUM 3 Start 11:00 am

Marinko Matosevic (AUS) v [14] Juan Monaco (ARG) - Monaco has had a quiet 2013.

[11] Nicolas Almagro (ESP) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP) – After his Australian Open collapse, it is possible that Almagro is going to struggle.

[Q] Philipp Petzschner (GER) v [16] Kei Nishikori (JPN) – My first upset pick.

COURT 7 Start 11:00 am

[22] Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Carlos Berlocq (ARG) – Berlocq is match tough after the Latin American swing of the tour.

Pablo Andujar (ESP) v [19] Tommy Haas (GER) – A 50-50 match in my mind.  Haas gets the nod due to the surface, but the old man of the tour should not take Andujar lightly.

[Q] Matthew Ebden (AUS) v [31] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) – Is he due for a breakthrough or not?

COURT 8 Start 11:00 am

[25] Jeremy Chardy (FRA) v Bjorn Phau (GER) – Chardy should beat the diminutive veteran.

Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) v [26] Martin Klizan (SVK)

Indian Wells Final Sunday Predictions

18 Mar

Final Round – Predicted Winners in BOLD

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Maria Sharapova (2) – Maria may be due to beat Azarenka, but Vika is undefeated in 2012.  I have said in my other picks that until someone beats Vika I am going to keep picking her.  I think Azarenka wins in straight sets.  She can do what Kirilenko did to Sharapova defensively speaking and has a great deal more offense than Kirilenko.  Azarenka is a bad match-up for Sharapova.

Roger Federer (3) vs. John Isner (11) – This match is much harder to predict.  Isner won his most recent match against Federer and just beat the number one player in the world.  With his serve, I would expect a lot of close sets.  I am basing my pick on Federer’s recent winning streak and the fact that he lost to Isner.  It will be hard for Isner to beat Federer twice in a row.

Indian Wells Picks 3-17-2012

17 Mar

Projected Winner in BOLD

Semifinals
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. John Isner (11) – John Isner is on the cusp of becoming a top 10 player.  He is at worst the second hardest player on tour to break.  Still, Novak should win this match.  It is by no means a certainty because if a player holds serve most of the time he has a chance to win.  Novak will likely win due to being the number one returner on tour along with his superior play in points that last longer than two or three shots.

 

Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Roger Federer (3) – Roger is playing great tennis and can certainly win this match.  However, his recent struggles versus Thomaz Bellucci should highlight just how bad of a match-up a left-handed heavy top spin player is for Roger.  Rafael Nadal is much better than Bellucci.  Also, Nadal has been pointing for this event since the end of the Australian Open.

 

PS – My NCAA Basketball Bracket was in great shapw after day 1.  I picked 14 of 16 games correctly.  Missouri and Duke losing yesterday cost me a final four and elite eight 8 pick.  Madness

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