Quarterfinals Kei Nishikori (14) vs. Pablo Andujar - A great match for tennis lovers, but I think Andujar will be more fresh and as I said earlier I love Pablo’s game.
Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6) – I think clay helps Berdych here. He can hit through the court whereas Murray’s shots may sit up more.
David Ferrer (4) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Numero uno en Espana es Rafa! This will be closer than Acapulco was though.
Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori - Federer has had a mediocre 2013 by his standards. He also has points to defend. I expect Roger to advance, but a loss would not be shocking.
Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon - In 2008, Simon looked like Murray’s mini-me. This could go either way on clay. I still think Murray advances.
David Ferrer vs. Tommy Haas - A rematch of their Miami semifinal. Haas just won a tournament, but Ferrer on clay in Spain has to be the pick.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco - My first upset pick for May 9th’s slate of matches. Tsonga nearly beat Nole at Roland Garros last year and pushed Rafa in Monte Carlo this year. Still, clay favors Verdasco who needs a signature win.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov - This match is worth the price of admission. Wawrinka just won a tournament beating #4 David Ferrer in the final. Dimitrov took a set off of Rafa at Monte Carlo and beat Djokovic in Madrid. I think Wawrinka’s momentum helps him hold off Dimitrov, but the youngster is making waves.
1. Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.
2. Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising. Change since last Ranking +1
3. Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings. Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show. Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray. Change since last ranking – 1
4. Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players. He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it. Change since last ranking + 2
5. Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time. He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2. My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing. Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis. Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013. Change since last ranking – 1
6. Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5. Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder. Change since last ranking +3
7. David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013. Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him. Change since last ranking – 2
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady
9. Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year. Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer. Change since last ranking -2
10.Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot. Change since last ranking – unranked
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) – Et tu Tsonga? Doubtful. Nole advances to the semis.
Andy Murray (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – If Murray is still nuring his Australian Open loss, Delpo has a great chance at an upset. My guess is Murray is slowly moving toward the Wimbledon-US Open stretch with hopes of a decent run on clay. Therefore, an unburdened Murray advances.
Semifinal Round
Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Maria Kirilenko (13) – Kirilenko could win, but the odds are heavily in favor of Sharapova advancing.
Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – I see Caro building on her win over Azarenka with a win here.
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Fabio Fognini (ITA) – This should be entertaining, but Nole should also roll.
[WC] James Blake (USA) v [8] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) - An upset is possible here, but only if Tsonga is off of his game.
STADIUM 2 Start 11:00 am
[12] Marin Cilic (CRO) v Albert Ramos (ESP) – Cilic has made a nice return to the top 20 after his promising 2009 and early 2010. Ramos is capable of the upset though as Cilic can throw in a bad match from time to time.
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v [7] Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) – The 2009 World Tour Final championship match revisited. JMDP should advance.
[23] Sam Querrey (USA) v [Q] Ivo Karlovic (CRO) – Expect tie-breaks to be played
STADIUM 3 Start 11:00 am
Marinko Matosevic (AUS) v [14] Juan Monaco (ARG) - Monaco has had a quiet 2013.
[11] Nicolas Almagro (ESP) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP) – After his Australian Open collapse, it is possible that Almagro is going to struggle.
[Q] Philipp Petzschner (GER) v [16] Kei Nishikori (JPN) – My first upset pick.
COURT 7 Start 11:00 am
[22] Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Carlos Berlocq (ARG) – Berlocq is match tough after the Latin American swing of the tour.
Pablo Andujar (ESP) v [19] Tommy Haas (GER) – A 50-50 match in my mind. Haas gets the nod due to the surface, but the old man of the tour should not take Andujar lightly.
[Q] Matthew Ebden (AUS) v [31] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) – Is he due for a breakthrough or not?
COURT 8 Start 11:00 am
[25] Jeremy Chardy (FRA) v Bjorn Phau (GER) – Chardy should beat the diminutive veteran.
[7] J Tsonga (FRA) v [2] R Federer (SUI) – Tsongahas beaten Roger in three big matches. Still, I think it would be unwise to pick against Roger. Federer has yet to drop a set and may be setting his 31 year old body up for a two match sprint to the title versus his top foes. Federer is sharp enough to be favored in this match.
J Chardy (FRA) v [3] A Murray (GBR) – Murray has a chance to be number one everywhere but on the computer if he takes this title. To do so by avenging his 2010 runner-up finish to Federer and 2011 runner-up loss to Djokovic (not to mention his 2012 semifinal loss to Djokovic) would be doubly sweet. Chardy has played well to get to this point. He could take a set off of Murray who seems to be itching for a tough match. Chardy is unlikely to advance.
Serena Williams adds to her sublime legacy with decisive gold medals in singles and doubles. Serena has career Golden Slams in singles and doubles now. Fodder for a GOAT debate?
Speed Kills – Andy Murray took a huge step by winning 5 straight sets over Djokovic and Federer en route to a gold medal in singles. Throw in a silver in mixed doubles and Murray has gotten most if not all of the monkey off of his back. A first Grand Slam title could be coming in New York or Melbourne.
Victoria Azarenka won her first Grand Slam in January. She has added a bronze medal in singles and a gold medal in mixed doubles to her trophy case for 2012.
Roger Federer finally got a medal in singles after coming so close in 2000. He achieved a career Silver Slam in London. Federer seemed to have a good perspective on his 2nd place showing. Still, the final match reminded me a bit of what Safin and Hewitt did to Sampras in the 2000 and 2001 US Open championship matches.
Venus Williams could have a great career as a doubles specialist if her illness stymies her singles ambitions.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic showed heart and nerve in their on court battle. Maybe they should team to face JMDP and Federer in a charity doubles match. Tsonga did pick up a silver in doubles.
Color did not hurt the atmosphere at Wimbledon.
Tennis may be huge in Rio, but the shift from grass to clay to hard courts was difficult in 1992.
Maria Sharapova also achieved a career Silver Slam in singles.
1. Roger Federer – His Wimbledon win means Roger Federer has a tour leading 5 titles for 2012. Like Rafa, Roger also has two Masters 1000 titles this year. Change from last ranking + 2
2. Novak Djokovic – A Wimbledon semifinal finish helps Nole maintain his #2 spot.
3. Rafael Nadal - Rafa like Roger has a slam, two 1000 series titles and one 500 series title in 2012. The bad news is that Nadal lost in the 2nd round to the #100 player in the world. Change from last ranking – 2
4. Andy Murray -Andy lost the Wimbledon final, but he showed a lot of metal in successive wins vs. Karlovic, Baghdatis, Cilic, Ferrer and Tsonga. He played his best Grand Slam final ever as well. Andy made it clear that he belongs in the top 4. He also has room to grow so his fans should take heart. Change from last ranking +3
5. David Ferrer – Ferrer shrugged off the beating he took at Roland Garros with a grass court title and a Wimbledon quarterfinal appearance. His wins over Roddick and del Potro give him credentials off of clay. He played Murray tough as well. Change from last ranking – 1
6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Tsonga is the player in the best position to challenge the top 4. He nearly beat Nole in Paris and made a solid semifinal showing at Wimbledon. Change from last ranking +3
7. Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo played well in his first three Wimbledon matches, but was dominated by Ferrer. Concerns about the big man’s knees are real. Change from last ranking – 2
8. Philipp Kohlschreiber – His quarterfinal showing and solid play in Halle make Kohlschreiber a legitimate threat to medal at the 2012 Olympic games. He gets grass court tennis. Change from last ranking – newcomer
9. Mardy Fish - Fish overcame a massive health issue and reached the round of 16 at SW19. Change from last ranking – newcomer
10.Marin Cilic – Combining his victory at Queen’s Club with his gritty performance to reach the round of 16 at Wimbledon means Cilic may be reclaiming some of his promise from 2009 and early 2010. Change from last ranking – newcomer
New Comers – Philipp Kohlschreiber, Mardy Fish and Marin Cilic
Dropped Out – Tomas Berdych, Nicolas Almagro, and Tommy Haas
Biggest Movers – Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +3
Things have worked out well for Roger since the 2011 US Open ended. He is 2 matches away from the number 1 ranking. Federer can win this match. However, Nole is in a spot to solidify number 1 for the year and to win his 2nd consecutive Wimbledon title. If Nole wins this event, the tennis landscape looks a lot like it did from 2005-2007. If Federer wins this match, then a sprint for number 1 is on regardless of who wins this title. (more on this match in my next post)
4 Andy Murray vs. 5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
In a match that has so many potential side stories and outside influences, I just want to look at the single most tangible thing I have. The 2011 Queen’s Club final saw Andy Murray win a close match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. I think this match will be close. Obviously, Tsonga has less pressure on him and this could make the difference. If Murray serves well, I think his return game and counter punching will be enough to advance.
