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Serena Williams’ Legacy Grows

7 Jul

Serena Williams fought of a game Agnieeszka Radwanska to win her 5th Wimbledon singles title 6-1, 5-7, 6-2. Serena’s first two service games of the 3rd set were crucial to determining the winner.  Williams’ serve had abandoned at the close of the 2nd set.  Aga had her teeth in the match.  Serena failed to convert break points at 1-1 in the 3rd set and fell behind 1-2.  Serena responded in the most dominant and intimidating manner that she could by serving 4 consecutive bombs.  The match was never the same after Serena asserted her greatness.

Serena’s Place on the All-Time List

I will go into this more fully at a later date, but I am not going to Jon Wertheim route from a few years ago.  I do not see Serena as the GOAT and her path to achieve that status would be challenging.  Steffi Graf and Martina Navratilova both seem to me to be comfortably out in front of Serena for the time being.  Still, I think this victory helps Serena in debates against Monica Seles and Chris Evert.  Seles is the hardest all-time great to rank because her tragic stabbing altered the course of a career that was on a trajectory to challenge almost every record in singles.  I somewhat hesitantly place Serena in front of Seles.  Evert may have more singles slams than Serena, but I think Serena’s doubles excellence places her ahead of Evert.  My top 5 without giving it more thought (future deep thought post forthcoming) would be Graf, Navratilova, Serena Williams, Monica Seles and then Chris Evert.  I realize Graf did not dominate in doubles either, but I think the Golden Slam has to count for something.

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The Pyrenees Are No More – Spain’s Domination of Roland Garros

25 May

Louis XIV once said, “The Pyrenees are no more.”  This sparked military conflict as the prospect of Spain and France being ruled by the same person was intolerable for the rest of Europe.  Starting in 1993, Spain reversed King Louis’ notions and erased the Pyrenees in favor of Spanish rule.

Wertheim’s Mailbag

Jon Wertheim’s mailbag this week included a question regarding why French fans are slow to cheer for Nadal despite his stellar play.  Wertheim offered a number of potential reasons for this phenomenon that all seem plausible.  His answers range from Uncle Toni taking a shot or two at French fans to the banana choking incident in 2006 to the French just loving an underdog.  I’d like to add that the neighborly rivalry between France and Spain has a lot of French tennis fans wondering why and how Spain has produced so many Grand Slam champions in the men’s event while France has not had a male Grand Slam winner since 1983.

The Reign of Spain

Arantxa Sanchez Vicario is a part of this story, but Amelie Mauresmo’s much more recent two Grand Slam singles titles make the female balance tilt toward France.  So I will nod toward Arantxa’s improbable 1989 French Open crown, two other French Open titles as well as the facilities built for the 1992 Barcelona Olympics as sparking a tennis revolution in Spain.  Still, Spain’s reign on the male side of the draw began in 1993.

Consider the following:

1993 – Sergi Bruguera Roland Garros Champion

1994 – Sergi Bruguera Roland Garros Champion, Alberto Berasategui – Finalist

1997 – Sergi Bruguera – Finalist

1998 – Carlos Moya – Roland Garros Champion, Alex Corretja – Finalist

2001 – Alex Corretja – Finalist

2002 – Albert Costa – Roland Garros Champion, Juan Carlos Ferrero – Finalist

2003 – Juan Carlos Ferrero – Roland Garros Champion

2005 – 2008, 2010, 2011 Rafael Nadal – Roland Garros Champion

From 1993 – 2011 Spain has produced 11 French Open Champions in the Men’s Event

From 1993-2011 Spain has produced 5 French Open second place finishes as well

France in that time has not produced a single male finalist.  Gael Monfils’ 2008 four set loss to a less than sharp Roger Federer is about as good as it has been for France during Spain’s conquest (Yes, Cedric Pioline reached the semifinal round in 1998, but the other three semifinalists were Spanish).  I think this contributes to Nadal not being embraced.  Then again, I have never been one to root for a player based upon nationality so it could have nothing to do with this phenomenon.

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Wertheim, Raonic and Other Thoughts

27 Apr

Jon Wertheim’s Mailbag Abides

Jon Wertheim commented on an observation I made about the possible benefits of Rafael Nadal playing slowly in his weekly mailbag.  Here are Jon’s thoughts:

I think Nadal’s slow play does benefit him in one key area. Nadal’s ability to concentrate is a comparative advantage against anyone not named Deep Blue. By lengthening the match, I believe Nadal’s mental focus stays close to 100 percent whereas his opponent can begin to lose some strategic and/or tactical clarity. As you pointed out regarding the Australian Open semifinal matches, a few points can make the difference. I would add that a few bad decisions by the opposition can lead to those very points going Rafa’s way.
– Dan Martin, Park Hills, Ky.

• That’s interesting. And, of course, it’s easy to see how an opponent’s concentration could waver. It’s not simply the extra time. It’s the fact that those extra 10 or 15 seconds are different from conventional rhythms. You can liken this to all sorts of situations. If all of your essay tests in school are an hour, but one teacher gives a 75-minute test, you can see how this could throw off a student. If your match.com date pauses an extra few seconds before answering your questions (“How bad is your commute?” “Do you watch ‘Mad Men?’” “How did people meet before the interweb?”) your whole rap gets thrown off, I suspect.

Krishan of Houston also raised the point that whereas Federer is quick and decisive, Nadal uses this time to recuperate physically and also gather himself mentally for the next point: “If you take that away from him [i.e. "enforce the rules"] he loses a considerable part of his game,” Krishan writes.

Again, a shot clock eliminates this complaint — and a knock on the sport’s top two players — and I don’t really see a downside. It’s another fan-friendly innovation (inasmuch as a device used by other sports for the last half-century innovates.) It’s not prohibitively expensive. And if there were inconsistencies with respect when the chair began the countdown, so what? The players would adjust accordingly.

Milos Raonic Wins a Couple of Big Clay Court Matches

Milos Raonic defeated Nicolas Almagro in straight sets.  That was a nice win on clay.  Today, Raonic who has a top five serve faced a man with a top five return in Andy Murray.  On clay, I would expect this to tilt toward Murray.  However, Raonic beat Murray in straight sets as well.  If Milos can play a bit like Isner does on clay by serving bombs but then also using the extra split second the surface affords to take cracks at returns and groundstrokes, he can be a tough out in 2012.  By 2013 or 2014, who knows.  I like Nadal to win Barcelona, and I think Raonic would be an interesting final opponent for Rafa.

Other Thoughts

  • Part 5 of my GOAT series focusing on Rafa should be up soon
  • Andy Murray is in an odd phase of his new coaching arrangement with Ivan Lendl.  How Murray handles this turbulence will be important.  Can he keep an eye on long term improvement or will losses dent his confidence?
  • I watched some junior tennis players this week and have to say that serve and volley is not just an endangered species on the pro tour.  Everyone I saw more or less played the same heavy baseline game.

 

Sam Stosur and the GOAT Debate (Steffi and Serena)

18 Sep

Graf-esque (esque and fjord need more uses)

Samantha Stosur put together a comprehensive win against the most dominant female player since the Graf-Seles Era.  She did it by hitting big forehands and serves, moving well, being fit, and slicing her backhand.  Sound like anyone else?  Sure Sam can hit a two handed topspin drive, but she sliced the ball a lot to keep it low and take pace off of the ball in a match between arguably the two most powerful players in women’s tennis.  However, her game had a Steffi Graf flavor to it versus Serena Williams in her 6-2, 6-3 victory.

GOAT – Wertheim 15 Months Later

I will make it clear that Jon Wertheim is my favorite current tennis writer and his work on a weekly basis is a great service to tennis fans.  He correctly divides any GOAT debate into two separate but related questions regarding qualitative and quantitative results.  Wertheim admitted that Serena trailed many players in accomplishments, but that Serena was qualitatively the GOAT for women’s tennis.

I think the qualitative argument can be made about any solid number 1 in the men’s game.  One would have to update for advances in off court training, sports medicine, and equipment to allow champions from the past to compete with today’s top players.  Is the same true for Serena Williams?

To Be Blunt – No

Serena Williams is one of the top tier female players of all-time.   However, quantitatively she still trails Graf, Navratilova, Evert and Court.  If doubles gets a serious nod, Serena gains some on Graf and Evert,  but she falls further behind Navratilova, Court and King.  Still, the qualitative argument runs into a problem when one considers how Sam Stosur beat Serena Williams.

If Stosur could defeat Serena with clutch serving, a big forehand, good movement, strong fitness and a slice backhand, couldn’t Steffi Graf in her prime execute that same strategy versus Serena Williams?  It might take Steffi some time to adjust to Serena’s power, but Steffi had Olympic sprinter speed during her prime.  Steffi also developed a strong serve after her 1987 Wimbledon final loss to Navratilova.  Steffi was mentally tougher during her prime than any player Serena currently faces in women’s tennis.  That adds up in my mind to Steffi being able to play a higher level of qualitative tennis than Serena Williams has reached.

Counter Factual Time – An Updated Graf

Even if Steffi Graf without any updating likely played at a level better than Serena, what would Steffi’s game look like if she played now?  If Steffi Graf’s knees and thumb were given today’s advances in surgical techniques and physical therapy, she likely would have maintained her top speed and stamina deeper into her career.  If Steffi had today’s strings, her slice backhand might be used less often as generating topspin would be easier.  Mixing up her backhand spins would make the famous Steffi-slice more effective as a player could not bank on seeing it 95% of the time.  Finally, Steffi’s serve and forehand would benefit from today’s major string advances and modest racket advances.  All in all, Steffi with today’s technology would be a dominating number 1 because of her skill set, her athleticism and her dedication to tennis.  Steffi would not take breaks in her focus and that would allow for her to put up similar numbers to those she put up in the 80′s and 90′s.  This is no slight to Serena who is a legitimate top pantheon champion in tennis history, but Steffi Graf is the GOAT unless doubles gets serious consideration.

Post Script – Stosur Going Forward

I am hesitant to predict big things for Stosur because many first time slam winners in the women’s game look poised to be consistent performers on tour only to fade back into the pack for one reason or another.  However, Stosur is fit and strong.  She is not super young at 27, but aside from Serena, is there a power player who moves or serves as well as Stosur?  Her biggest drawback has been mental toughness.  This is a big IF in my mind, but if Stosur plays with fewer nerves than she did prior to winning a major, she can win several more slams.  I think Stosur is the favorite at next year’s French Open and should be among the favorites at the other three slams in 2012.  Stosur should win at least one slam in 2012 so long as success reduces her nerves while not causing her to lose motivation.

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