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Tennis Power Ranking 2013: Roland Garros Means Nadal Rises

10 Jun

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #7

Roland Garros Rearranged the Rankings 

This match flipped the top two

1.  Rafael Nadal - His 8th French Open title is a record.  He has won at least one Grand Slam title for 9 consecutive years.  This too is a record.  Nadal is flying high as he has no points to defend for the remainder of the year.  Change since last ranking +1

2.  Novak Djokovic – Nole needs to win either Wimbledon or the US Open to reclaim the top spot.  His 5 set loss to Nadal at Roland Garros may be like Rafa’s 5 set loss to Federer at Wimbledon in 2007.  Waiting one year is a long time for revenge though.  Wimbledon can afford some revenge, but conquering clay will have to wait.  Change since last ranking -1

Ferrer has posted a 24-5 Grand Slam record in the past 5 slams

3.  David Ferrer - The other Spaniard played wonderfully reaching the final at Roland Garros without dropping a set.  He lacks the weapons needed to beat Rafa, Nole, Roger and Andy with any consistency or in the biggest matches, but he is playing great tennis.  Change since last ranking + 3

4.  Andy Murray – He missed the French Open with an injury.  His last match on grass was winning a gold medal.  Can he shine again on grass?  Change since last ranking -1

5.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – He reached a Grand Slam semifinal so gets a boost, but his showing in that semifinal proved that the weight of French expectations can weigh him down.  Change since last ranking + 2

6.  Roger Federer - 2013 has been rather difficult by Roger’s standards.  Halle could ease him into better form.  Change since last ranking – 1

Haas is one of the best stories of 2013

7.  Tommy Haas – He keeps defying father time.  Maybe Roger will pick his brain during their doubles partnership in Halle.  Change since last ranking +3

8.  Stanislas Wawrinka – Stan is playing great tennis this year.  He has a mental block versus Roger and can’t beat Rafa on clay, but otherwise he’s on the rise.  Change since last ranking – unranked

9.  Tomas Berdych – He had a terrible draw, but a first round loss led to a drop in my rankings.  Change since last ranking -5

10.  Richard Gasquet (Tie) – Heart break versus Wawrinka does not diminish a nice season.  Change since last ranking -1

Djokovic taught him a lesson, but he is rising

10.  Grigor Dimitrov (Tie) – Could we finally be seeing a younger player make a move? 

Biggest Mover – Tomas Berdych dropped 5 spots, David Ferrer and Tommy Haas both gained 3 spots

Dropped Out – Juan Martin del Potro (will he ever be healthy enough to make it back to where he was?)

Entered the Rankings – Stanislas Wawrinka

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The Ten Most Tense Grand Slam Matches in the Past 10 Years

7 Jun

Top 10 Tension Filled Grand Slam Matches over the Past 10 Years

  1. Djokovic d. Nadal Australian Open 2012 Final
  2. Nadal d. Federer Wimbledon 2008 Final
  3. Djokovic d. Federer US Open 2010 Semifinal
  4. Federer d. Roddick Wimbledon 2009 Final
  5. JMDP d. Federer US Open 2009 Final
  6. Federer d. Nadal Wimbledon 2007 Final
  7. Nadal d. Verdasco Australian Open 2009 Semifinal
  8. Djokovic d. Murray Australian Open 2012 Semifinal
  9. Nadal d. Djokovic French Open 2013 Semifinal
  10. Djokovic d. Nadal US Open 2011 Final (the only 4 set match on the list)

Honorable Mentions: Agassi d. Blake US Open, 2005 Quarterfinal, Federer d. Del Potro French Open 2009 Semifinal, Federer d. Haas French Open 2009 Round of 16, Safin d. Federer Australian Open 2005 Semifinal, Djokovic d. Federer US Open 2011 Semifinal

Gets Its Own Category: Isner d. Mahut This match had no implications for who would win the event.  Still, it was a unique war.

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Tennis Power Ranking 2013: Indian Wells

17 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #4

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.

2.  Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising.  Change since last Ranking +1

3.  Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings.  Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show.  Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players.  He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it.  Change since last ranking + 2

5.  Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time.  He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2.  My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing.  Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis.  Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5.  Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder.  Change since last ranking +3 

7.  David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013.  Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him.  Change since last ranking – 2

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic

Entered the Rankings – Milos Raonic

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Indian Wells 2013 Championship Predictions

17 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Final

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7)

I think Nadal completes a remarkable comeback by defeating a player who has given him some trouble.  Delpo is obviously on a roll beating Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in succession.  For JMDP to win he will need to serve big so that he holds routinely.  That would give JMDP the opportunity to take big swings and pressure Rafa’s serve.  I don’t think that happens.  Rafa is showing just why he is one of the greatest ever.  He was dominating last Spring and early Summer.  He gets hurt and misses 7 months.  He comes back and is winning at a high rate again.

Final

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8)

Wozniacki is making a move back toward the top 5.  That is a great story, but it is hard for me to pick a player who lives and dies on her opponent’s mistakes.  Sharapova may lose, but her play is going to determine who wins.  I’ll take the agressor to take the title.

 

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March 15, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions or Et tu Tsonga?

15 Mar

Beware the Ides of March

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinal Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) – Et tu Tsonga?  Doubtful.  Nole advances to the semis.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – If Murray is still nuring his Australian Open loss, Delpo has a great chance at an upset.  My guess is Murray is slowly moving toward the Wimbledon-US Open stretch with hopes of a decent run on clay.  Therefore, an unburdened Murray advances.

Semifinal Round

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Maria Kirilenko (13) – Kirilenko could win, but the odds are heavily in favor of Sharapova advancing.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – I see Caro building on her win over Azarenka with a win here.

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March 13, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

13 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Fourth Round

Andy Murray (3) vs. Carlos Berlocq - Murray should win in two easy sets as Berlocq has no weapons to threaten Murray.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Ernests Gulbis - Gulbis is on a hot streak and Nadal is maybe not sure about hard courts.  Still, Rafa is the smart pick.

Gilles Simon (13) vs. Kevin Anderson - Simon has struggled versus Isner who is the best analog for Anderson I can find.  Also, Anderson beat Ferrer who is a good analog for Simon.  I love Gilles’ game, but the big man advances.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Sam Querrey (23) – Sam beat Nole last fall.  Lightening is not going to strike twice.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18) – Stan may seem due to beat Roger , but for the most part this is a one-sided friendly Swiss rivalry.

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Richard Gasquet (10) – Two of the hottest players in 2013 collide.  I think Berdych wins due to having more weapons even if his game is less imaginative than Gasquet’s.

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Delpo already got to beat up on Davydenko and Hewitt.  I think the oldest man in the draw pulls off a mild upset to avenge the other veterans.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – Milos has to breakthrough at some point; why not now?

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March 10, 2013: Indian Wells Match Picks

9 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

STADIUM 1 Start 11:00 am

[32] Mardy Fish (USA) v [Q] Bobby Reynolds (USA)

[3] Andy Murray (GBR) v Evgeny Donskoy (RUS)

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Fabio Fognini (ITA) – This should be entertaining, but Nole should also roll.

[WC] James Blake (USA) v [8] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) - An upset is possible here, but only if Tsonga is off of his game.

STADIUM 2 Start 11:00 am

[12] Marin Cilic (CRO) v Albert Ramos (ESP) – Cilic has made a nice return to the top 20 after his promising 2009 and early 2010.  Ramos is capable of the upset though as Cilic can throw in a bad match from time to time.

Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v [7] Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) – The 2009 World Tour Final  championship match revisited.  JMDP should advance.

[23] Sam Querrey (USA) v [Q] Ivo Karlovic (CRO) – Expect tie-breaks to be played

STADIUM 3 Start 11:00 am

Marinko Matosevic (AUS) v [14] Juan Monaco (ARG) - Monaco has had a quiet 2013.

[11] Nicolas Almagro (ESP) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP) – After his Australian Open collapse, it is possible that Almagro is going to struggle.

[Q] Philipp Petzschner (GER) v [16] Kei Nishikori (JPN) – My first upset pick.

COURT 7 Start 11:00 am

[22] Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Carlos Berlocq (ARG) – Berlocq is match tough after the Latin American swing of the tour.

Pablo Andujar (ESP) v [19] Tommy Haas (GER) – A 50-50 match in my mind.  Haas gets the nod due to the surface, but the old man of the tour should not take Andujar lightly.

[Q] Matthew Ebden (AUS) v [31] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) – Is he due for a breakthrough or not?

COURT 8 Start 11:00 am

[25] Jeremy Chardy (FRA) v Bjorn Phau (GER) – Chardy should beat the diminutive veteran.

Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) v [26] Martin Klizan (SVK)

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Post Paris Power Ranking: David Ferrer’s Leap Forward

5 Nov

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Ranking

Post Paris Edition

  1. Novak Djokovic – Nole posted the best Grand Slam and Masters 1000 records for 2012.  He must feel like he let a slam get away in 2012, but he’s #1 for the year. 
  2. Andy Murray – Murray’s US Open win and Gold Medal change the landscape of tennis, but his 0-9 finish in the Masters 1000 events will have to change if he wishes to reach #1 in 2013.
  3. Roger Federer – The Fed entered the 2003 Masters Cup with 6 titles and a ponytail.  He enters the 2012 World Tour Finals with 6 titles and 2 pre-schoolers.  Changes and constants   
  4. David Ferrer – The “other” Spaniard leads the tour with 7 titles.  Ferrer has a title on all four surfaces in 2012.  Ferrer just won his first Masters 1000 event.  Does he deserve to pass Rafa?  Maybe not, but winning titles on every surface, winning 18 Grand Slam matches, and leading the tour in titles makes Ferrer a top flight player in 2012.   Change from last ranking +1
  5. Rafael Nadal – Rafa’s injury has left him on the shelf since the end of June.  His first 1/2 of 2012 was the best of any player.  Change from last ranking -1  
  6. Juan Martin del Potro – JMDP recently won his 14th and 15th career singles titles.  The big man won a Bronze medal and reached 3 Grand Slam quarterfinal rounds in 2012.  Beating Roger Federer in Basel says a lot about where JMDP is at.  Change from last ranking +3
  7. Tomas Berdych - His US Open showing props up some of his poor results in 2012.  Change from last ranking – 1
  8. Marin Cilic – The Croatian has slowly returned to his 2009 and early 2010 form.  Change from last ranking +1
  9. Richard Gasquet – His recent play earns the enigmatic star a slot in my top 10.  Change from last ranking – 1
  10. Jerzy Janowicz - He probably does not deserve this spot, but just think that this qualifier just banked 600 ranking points that will not come off until next November.  This is a huge relief for a guy scrapping by on tour.  Change from last ranking – not ranked

Biggest Movers – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Entered the Rankings – Jerzy Janowicz

Dropped Out – Tommy Haas

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US Open Day 11 Picks

6 Sep

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinals

Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – Delpo can beat Nole in a big match as he did so at the Olympic games, but Novak should advance in 4 sets.

David Ferrer (4) vs. Janko Tipsarevic (8) – Will Tipsy’s rage fuel an upset?  No.  Ferrer is so solid that I think he wins here and makes Novak work hard on Saturday.

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Pre-US Open Power Ranking

26 Aug

**** Given that Rafael Nadal is not playing the US Open he will not be ranked, but his 2012 position is either 3rd or 4th in my mind.

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Ranking

US Open Edition

  1. Roger Federer – If anyone had told Roger Federer that 2012 would include a Wimbledon title, he likely would have taken that deal.  Throw in 3 Masters 1000 titles, 2 other titles, a Silver Medal, a record-setting return to #1, and two Grand Slam semifinal finishes and 2012 has been a banner year for the 31 year old Swiss.  Roger is likely feeling greedy though and sees a chance to add more history with a 6th US Open title as a real possibility.
  2. Novak Djokovic – Nole has won the previous 3 hard court Grand Slam titles and also won Miami and Montreal this year.  Nole has defended all of his hard court points from the summer season of 2011 as well.  His draw makes him the slight favorite to win the title as his path to the final is easier than Federer’s or Murray’s.
  3. Andy Murray – We have not seen a lot from him since winning Gold in London (not to mention a Silver in mixed doubles).  Still, Murray has to have the best vibes he’s had heading into New York since 2008 or 2009.  
  4. Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo knows what it takes to win in New York.  As always his health is a concern, but the Argentine has some momentum from his Bronze Medal.  I think Delpo will set up a massive quarterfinal with Nole.  
  5. David Ferrer – Ferrer could carve out more for his legacy by making the final weekend at the US Open. He’s won 5 titles this year, and the one player he generally cannot grind down is not in the draw.  On one hand, Ferrer is a great value pick as he is unlikely to beat himself; on the other hand, it is hard to envision him going beyond the quarters or semis.  
  6. John Isner – He’s got a huge weapon in his serve.  He has some momentum with 2 titles this summer. He has wins in 2012 over Nole and Federer.  Still, I think his game has taken a step back from where it stood after Indian Wells and his Davis Cup heroics versus France.  Isner needs to take advantage of this opportunity.  Still, his positioning suggests just how shallow the field looks after Delpo.
  7. Tomas Berdych – Big Berd was having a nice season until his loss to JMDP in Paris.  Since then it has been mostly downhill.  If he gained some momentum from his showing in North Carolina, he could be a threat to go deep.  I would not place too much faith in his chances.
  8. Richard Gasquet – His solid play in Montreal places him at #8 on my list.  The last few months have helped to establish Gasquet as a credible player once again.
  9. Juan Monaco – He is a tough baseliner who won’t beat himself or get tired.  That may be enough to reach the final 8.  
  10. Nicolas Almagro – Nico has more firepower than Ferrer or Monaco.  He has also tended to tighten up in big situations.  Almagro may be the biggest beneficiary of Nadal being out as no matter how well he plays vs. Rafa he tends to tighten up at 4-4 or 5-5 in sets vs. Rafa.

*** Jo-Wilfried Tonga – If he is healthy, insert him ahead of Isner.  I am just not sure how healthy he is.

I also think John Isner is the tennis equivalent of Marvel Comics’ Captain Britain who lost strength the further he got from British soil.  Isner has done so well at places such as Newport, Atlanta, Houston, Winston-Salem, and Indian Wells that his lack of success in Melbourne and London has been strange.  Throw in his solid play at the Olympic games and his stellar Davis Cup results this year and Isner seems to play like a top 10 player in the US or when playing for the US.  When playing overseas outside of Davis Cup or Olympic competition, he looks more like a top 50 player.

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