[5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Leonardo Mayer (ARG) – Rafa rolls
Ivan Dodig (CRO) v [2] Roger Federer (SUI) – Federer wins
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) v [18] Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) – Call me nostalgic, but I think Rusty wins unless Stan returns well.
Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) v Kevin Anderson (RSA) – The big server beats the veteran.
[20] Andreas Seppi (ITA) v [Q] Ernests Gulbis (LAT) – Gulbis is en feugo
[6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) v [27] Florian Mayer (GER) – Berdych is one to watch in 2013.
[24] Jerzy Janowicz (POL) v [10] Richard Gasquet (FRA) – This is a tough one to call. Jerzy has a massive serve (and a massive temper). Gasquet has won two events in 2013. I’ll take Gasquet and go against my previous policy of always picking against Gasquet.
[13] Gilles Simon (FRA) v Benoit Paire (FRA) – Simon wins a French Civil War.
I first heard of Andy Roddick during the 2000 US Open final when the announcers mentioned the winners of the junior US Open events. I saw Andy Roddick’s final match as he lost to Juan Martin del Potro. I will miss seeing Roddick in major draws. It became apparent after some health issues scuttled a promising start to 2010 that Andy Roddick was no longer an outside threat to win majors. Roddick kept plugging away and won in Memphis in 2011 and at Eastbourne and Atlanta in 2012. Roddick winning at least one title per year for 12 years and finishing 9 consecutive years in the top 10 are among his best marks on the tour. His US Open title and year end finish at #1 in 2003 are his other great accomplishments.
Roddick Reached His Goals
Andy Roddick set out four goals when he became a tennis pro. He wanted to win the US Open and Wimbledon titles, he wanted to reach #1 in the world rankings and he wanted to win a Davis Cup title for the United States. Roddick won the US Open and reached the #1 ranking during the 2003 season. In 2007, Roddick helped the US win the Davis Cup title. Wimbledon was not to be, but Roddick was a runner-up in 2004, 2005 and 2009.
Roddick was an Australian Open semifinalist in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009. He reached two other Australian Open quarterfinal rounds in 2004 and 2010. His Australian Open results alone outstrip the Grand Slam results of James Blake, John Isner and Mardy Fish combined. His 3 Wimbledon runner-up finishes were joined by a semifinal finish in 2003 and a quarterfinal finish in 2007. At the US Open Roddick added a runner-up finish in 2006 as well as quarterfinal finishes in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to his 2003 title. US tennis had a consistent second week performer in Andy Roddick. A replacement is not on the horizon.
Did Not Become a National Sports Figure
After Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open and was soon on the Best Damn Sports Show Period laughing it up with retired professional athletes. Roddick may yet become a national sports figure by pursuing his career in Sports Radio. He has been a regular guest of Dan Patrick and already has a radio show. Roddick never got to be a national sports figure for casual tennis fans because Roger Federer frankly blunted his drives for success from 2004-2007 when Roddick had chances to increase his Grand Slam haul. Roddick had the personality to engage the average US sports fan’s psyche, but he needed more elite results to cross-over. It just did not happen. He may have a last laugh in that he beat Roger Federer in their final head-to-head match earlier this year, but Federer will always be linked to Roddick’s career.
My Memories
I first remember how heavy Roddick’s second serve seemed when he played some clay court events in the US in 2001.
I thought Roddick looked positively awesome in the early rounds of the 2004 US Open (including a shellacking of a young Rafa Nadal) only to lose in the quarters.
He had a lot of high profile coaching changes, but Larry Stefanki seemed to be the right man for his late career.
I am a Federer fan, but I was gutted to see his composure and pain after the 2009 Wimbledon final.
His 2010 win in Miami beating Nadal in the semifinal round and Berdych in the championship match was his last super high point.
He won his final head-to-head match with Roger Federer and lost his last Australian Open match to Lleyton Hewitt.
Defending champion John Isner has played well to reach the final. Ivo Karlovic has troubled Lleyton Hewitt in the past. Still, this grass court season has favored veteran players. I think that trend continues and Hewitt caps a magical week. Lleyton will be getting inducted into the Hall of Fame at some point in the future so getting a win here and now will smooth that transition.
Mercedes Cup
Stuttgart, Germany Surface – Clay
2 Juan Monaco vs. 1 Janko Tipsarevic
I think Janko has more talent than Monaco, but that Monaco is more steady. On clay, I think steady beats talent so Monaco grinds out another title. I have to give Monaco credit for pushing along and continuing to fight. He took two of the most one-sided beatings I have ever seen at the 2011 US Open vs. Roger Federer and the 2012 French Open vs Rafael Nadal. Monaco’s ranking and winning percentage are solid.
Studena Croatia Open
Umag, Croatia Surface – Clay
Marcel Granollers vs. 2 Marin Cilic
Cilic has been playing much better tennis as of late. I think a win here could help push Cilic toward fulfilling at least some of the promise he showed at the 2009 US Open and 2010 Australian Open. Granollers is a tough competitor, and he could take this title. However, Cilic on home soil should build on recent momentum and win another title.
SkiStar Swedish Open
Bastad, Sweden Surface – Clay
2 Nicolas Almagro vs. 1 David Ferrer
I love Almagro’s game and he did give Nadal his second toughest match at Roland Garros. Ferrer is the percentage pick here. David reached the semifinal round at Roland Garros, won a grass court tune-up and then pushed Andy Murray hard in the Wimbledon quarterfinal round. Ferrer winning another title would help to push him closer and closer to the big 4.
John Isner has stopped some of his recent bleeding by winning some matches in Rhode Island, but I sense that the big man is just not playing very well. He has accomplished one goal in terms of getting more match play on grass courts prior to the Olympic games in London. Isner’s second goal of defending computer points and momentum that he earned in winning this title last year may be harder to achieve because Harrison is a talented foe. I think Harrison is hungry and capable of pulling off a minor upset here to reach the final round.
Lleyton Hewitt vs. Rajeev Ram
Both men have won at least one title on grass. Hewitt’s 2002 Wimbledon title is a far bigger accomplishment than Ram’s 2009 title in Newport. Hewitt also has 6 other titles on grass including wins at Queen’s Club over Pete Sampras and Tim Henman in the final round as well as a win at Halle over Roger Federer in the final round. Still, both men have winning experience on this surface. Ram’s best memories as a player are at Newport, RI as he improbably won both the singles and doubles events in 2009. Hewitt should be inspired by seeing Gustavo Kuerten the man he battled for the #1 ranking in 2001 being enshrined in the International Tennis Hall of Fame. My guess is Lleyton wins the semifinal setting up a potentially lively final with Harrison.
Roger Federer’s 6-2, 5-7, 6-1 win over Juan Carlos Ferrero got me thinking about an earlier match between the two in which far more was at stake
2004 Federer vs. Ferrero in Melbourne
It is easy to forget how well Juan Carlos Ferrero played in 2003. At the end of the 2003 season, a split decision existed. Andy Roddick was number one in the computers and put together a huge run of North American events to get there. Roger Federer surged to number two after winning all five of his Masters Cup matches including straight set wins over Roddick and Juan Carlos Ferrero. The Spaniard ranked third to end 2003, but he won Roland Garros and was the runner-up at the US Open. In fact, Ferrero won the most Grand Slam matches (20 in total) in 2003. The Spaniard, unlike Federer, held the number one ranking for part of the year. A three horse race was in place to start 2004.
Andy Roddick entered the 2004 Australian Open as the top seed, but was beaten by a resurgent Marat Safin in the quarterfinal round. Roger Federer and Juan Carlos Ferrero met in the semifinal round with the number one ranking squarely on the line. If Ferrero reached his second consecutive hard court major final, he’d be viewed as taking the tour by the horns. Roger Federer winning would mean that his masterful season ending form had carried over into 2004.
Federer beat Ferrero relatively easily. Roger went on to defeat Marat Safin in the final round. Those two wins combined with Federer’s 2004 Australian Open wins over Lleyton Hewitt and David Nalbandian confirmed that Roger was the best of his generation. He re-affirmed this by defeating Hewitt and Roddick at Wimbledon 2004. Ferrero on the other hand suffered from some serious illnesses and never returned to the heights he occupied from Roland Garros 2003 through Melbourne 2004.
Various Firewalls Failed to Stop the Fed
Still, the match between Roger and Juan Carlos at the 2004 Australian Open was Juan Carlos’ best chance to establish himself as a peer to Federer. Each man in that generation had a match or two that could have changed the nature of their one-sided relationship with Federer. Juan Carlos’ came in January 2004. Andy Roddick had a number of big matches versus Roger, but his 2004 Wimbledon final loss shifted that rivalry. Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt each made push backs against Roger that met with limited success. Safin played Federer tough at the 2004 Masters Cup and followed that up with a five set win over Roger en route to an Australian Open title in 2005. Hewitt reached back-to-back major finals between the 2004 US Open and 2005 Australian Open. Each of these push backs was thwarted during the 2005 grass court season. Federer won a tight three set final over Marat Safin at Halle. He then went on to defeat Hewitt in straight sets in the semifinal round of Wimbledon 2005.
Roger was simply better than his contemporaries, and he likely would have reigned for several years even with a few extra losses in big matches. However, Roddick, Hewitt, Safin or Ferrero may have been emboldened by one or two more wins in these pivotal matches. That may have helped them mentally snag one or two additional wins. Also, Roger’s confidence may not have grown quite so much, and he may have thrown in a few more losses prior to the final weekend of majors.
Post Script: A Challenge Did Arise
Throw in a straight set win over Andy Roddick in the 2005 Wimbledon final, and Federer had cleared out his generation. When the grass court season closed in 2005, Federer had won five major titles leaving Hewitt and Safin’s two majors in the rear view mirror. Of course, 2005 saw the emergence of someone who did truly push back against Roger’s reign. Rafael Nadal lost a five set final in Miami to Roger after squandering a two set lead. Nadal did not make the same mistakes in Paris, and a new rivalry was born at roughly the same time Roger was completing his conquest of his contemporaries. A great deal has happened between 2005 and 2012, but these two men are still making headlines and history.
Why Roger Federer might be the GOAT - Roger Federer has a compelling case to make on both fronts of the GOAT argument. He holds many of tennis’ most important records and is close to the leader in the records that he does not (yet?) hold. He fills Sampras’ requirement for GOAT by holding the most Grand Slam singles titles. Therefore, he has probably the strongest answer to the question of who has accomplished the most as a male tennis player. Federer’s sixteen Grand Slam singles titles and career Grand Slam seem to separate him from even the great Pete Sampras.
In terms of who has played the best tennis ever, Federer’s game is quite adaptable to all surfaces. His style of play has an aesthetic quality to it that may turn off some but has won the allegiance of many fans. Federer’s success indoors and stroke mechanics make it easy to envision adapting his game to previous eras with faster courts and less advanced string technology. Rafael Nadal is an incredible competitor and athlete so he likely would have had success in other eras as well, but his game would need to be radically rebuilt to succeed in the past.
Federer’s strongest argument comes from his streaks. He has not only set records, but he has generally obliterated the previous or second place marks. Here are a few of the highlights:
Federer reached Ten consecutive Grand Slam Finals (a record) followed by his own a streak of eight consecutive Grand Slam Finals (Agassi, Laver and Nadal are in third place with four consecutive Grand Slam final appearances)
Federer won eight consecutive non-clay court Grand Slam titles from Wimbledon 2005 through the US Open 2007
Federer has reached the final round of each Grand Slam event at least five times (His record in these finals: Wimbledon 6-1, US Open 5-1, Australian Open 4-1, French Open 1-4)
Federer has won a record sixteen Grand Slam singles titles and reached a record twenty-three Grand Slam singles final rounds
Federer made twenty-three consecutive Grand Slam semifinal appearances. That translates to 5.75 years of placing no worse than the top four at tennis’ biggest events. I bolded this because I think this is his greatest achievement.
Federer has an active streak of thirty-one consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances. That translates 7.75 years of finishing no worse than the top eight at tennis’ biggest events.
Federer, like Bjorn Borg, won five consecutive Wimbledon titles and reached six consecutive Wimbledon finals. Unlike Borg, Federer added a sixth title and seventh consecutive championship appearance to his collection in 2009.
Federer also won a record twenty-four consecutive championship matches when reaching the final of a tournament.
One could go on, but beyond Federer now holding the most season ending championships, I think the biggest accomplishments have been named. These records are so gaudy that it may take a decade or two after Federer’s retirement to fully grasp what they represent.
Why Roger Federer is not the GOAT – Two arguments are frequently cited in debating Federer’s status. The first is that Federer did not face stiff competition in setting his records. This seems like a hollow argument as Rafael Nadal first became a credible Grand Slam threat in June 2005 and Federer won twelve of his sixteen majors after this point. Also, consider the 2004 Australian Open in which Federer defeated Lleyton Hewitt, David Nalbandian, Juan-Carlos Ferrero and Marat Safin in succession.
The other typical argument against Federer’s GOAT status has more heft. Roger Federer has a poor head-to-head record against his main rival in Rafael Nadal. Federer is 9-18 versus Nadal. This feeds into the second question relevant to GOAT debates regarding who has played the best tennis or held the highest standard of tennis. Some of this can be contextualized. Namely, during Federer’s best years he was reaching the final round of clay court events only to face Nadal, but Nadal did not often return the favor on faster hard courts and indoor courts. Still, Federer’s head-to-head record versus Nadal is a real number that impacts this debate.
You Decide - Federer has unquestionably been more consistently excellent than any other player in the Open era. Outside of Novak Djokovic, Federer has handed Nadal his biggest defeats by topping Nadal twice in the Wimbledon final, four times at the Masters Cup/World Tour Finals, and in the final round of three Masters 1000 events. Federer still leads his non-clay court head-to-head with Nadal seven to five. To be sure, Nadal has more frequently inflicted big losses on Federer, but it is not as if Roger has never drawn blood in this rivalry. Is Federer’s preternatural talent and consistent excellence enough to earn GOAT status or does Nadal’s record over Federer throw the debate into chaos?
As much as I love the early rounds of Grand Slams, the matches that lay ahead of us all look to be of a high quality. Grand Slam events are set up a lot like the NCAA college basketball tournament. Rather than wait for a sweet 16 in March, we have one in January. I was 5-2 with my picks yesterday so I decided to take a crack at the next 8 matches.
Men’s Picks (My projected winners in bold)
1 Novak Djokovic vs. Lleyton Hewitt – I expect Novak to win in 3 sets, but Lleyton could make this close. After 5 surgeries in 4 years, Hewitt deserves a ton of credit for getting back to a Grand Slam round of 16.
17 Richard Gasquet vs. 5 David Ferrer – I am tempted to pick Gasquet as he has weapons and flare. I thought Janko Tipsarevic would beat him, but I think Ferrer is unlikely to no show like Tipsarevic was and on a slower court I think Ferrer wins in a close match.
4 Andy Murray vs. Mikhail Kukushkin – Prior to hiring Ivan Lendl this might have been an upset special. Kukushkin is a solid player who won’t beat himself, but Murray in 3 or 4 is my call.
24 Kei Nishikori vs. 6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – I’d love to pick Nishikori here as he has a great game, but Tsonga since Queen’s Club 2011 has been close to cracking into the elite ranks of the sport. Tsonga winning Qatar in addition to being runner-up at the Word Tour Finals makes me pick Tsonga in 4.
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. 11 Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo is my second favorite player as a fan, but I don’t see Juan Martin del Potro playing quite at the level he needs to. Kohlschreiber has a great deal of variety in his game abd can keep the ball low. That will be enough to win a close match.
Bernard Tomic vs. 3 Roger Federer – I think Tomic actually has a 30-35% chance to win this match. His game is subtle. If he can keep Roger off balance enough and get some good Aussie vibes going, Tomic has a chance. Still, Roger Federer should win in 3 or 4 sets.
7 Tomas Berdych vs. 10 Nicolas Almagro – This is a huge opportunity for both players. Berdych had a breakout year in 2010, and played well everywhere except for the Grand Slams in 2011. He has been solid to this point in the event and might present Nadal a tough quarterfinal opponent.
18 Feliciano Lopez vs. 2 Rafael Nadal – Nadal wins easily. I just can’t see Lopez getting enough quality returns in play to break Nadal. Rafa will beat up his backhand. Lopez will have to serve huge to make this interesting. I just can’t see that happening for more than 1 set.
My Women’s Picks Will Be Coming Up Once the Quarterfinal Round Occurs – I do pick Kim Clijsters to beat Na Li again.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga already advanced so no need to pick here.
Andy Murray should beat Michael Llodra in straight sets. Llodra has enough talent to take one set, but I don’t expect Murray to be troubled.
Novak Djokovic should win easily vs. Nicolas Mahut.
David Ferrer should beat Juan Ignacio Chela in 3 or 4 sets. I expect a lot of rallies. Ferrer benefits as the match progresses.
Janko Tipsarevic should win in 3 or 4 sets vs. Richard Gasquet. Janko is playing well, and Gasquet is just not steady enough in my mind to win.
I think Milos Raonic beats Lleyton Hewitt in 4 sets, but if this gets to a 5th set the advantage shifts heavily to Hewitt.
I am picking Mikhail Kukushkin in a mild upset over Gael Monfils. Kukushkin is solid. Monfils should have momentum after his runner-up finish in Qatar (not to mention his win over Nadal), but I just think he will play too far behind the baseline to win.
Kei Nishikori and Julien Benneteau are both nice players. This is a hard one to call, but I think Nishikori wins 4 tight sets against the veteren Frenchmen.
Petra Kvitova lost a set and Chris Evert stated that she is not yet fully fit and will likely not win this Australian Open. This is something to follow.
Novak Djokovic looks solid, and a showdown with Milos Raonic seems like a great round of 16 match.
Kei Nishikori could surprise people in Melbourne despite needing 5 sets to reach the 3rd round.
David Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic are going to be hard outs in the draw.
Nicolas Mahut has little chance vs. Djokovic, but his 3rd round entrance helps him not solely be remembered as an answer to a trivia question.
Maria Sharapova is destroying people, but I am still skeptical about her second serve.
Ivan Lendl – Game Changer
Ivan Lendl’s tenure as Andy Murray’s coach is either going to be really successful or really short. Lendl is not going to put up with Murray’s traditional barbs toward his coach/family during matches. Lendl is still an intimidating figure. Some critics of Roger Federer complain about Federer giving off an imperious vibe. Lendl has that vibe too, but it is far less genial than Federer’s. I like seeing Lendl back, and I think projecting an imperious persona is not bad for Federer or Lendl. Lendl however seems menacing in a way that will should help Murray. If Murray is smart enough, he can learn by osmosis. Lendl struggled to break through at the Grand Slams, but once he did at the French Open in 1984, 1985-1987 were displays of dominance. Aside from imitating Lendl’s demeanor, Lendl’s toughness may also make Murray fear him more than the expectations of Great Britain or than Nadal’s resolve. That too can only help Murray.
Roddick 7 – Hewitt 7
After 14 matches, Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt are knotted up at 7-7. This match was a lot like their French Open match in 2001 in which Roddick also had to retire due to an injury. It would have been great to see another contentious 5 set grudge match a la Wimbledon 2009, but unfortunately injury struck. I feel for Roddick who put in a lot of road work during the late portions of 2011. Lleyton Hewitt, who has undergone 5 surgeries in 4 years, has to feel good about being in the round of 32 at a Grand Slam again. I doubt that we get to see too many more clashes between these two, but this would be an unsatisfying ending to their rivalry so I hope for at least one more match in a big event.
Roddick has a lot to look forward to in 2012 with the Olympics being on grass. Still, this injury and loss have to be crushing. Where do things head from here? If I were Roddick, I might skip the clay court season and just focus on being optimally prepared for Wimbledon, the Olympic games and the US Open. I am not sure where his career will go after 2012. I doubt he will retire at the end of the year, but injuries and a declining ranking put him in a tight spot.
For Hewitt, he got a lot of love from the Australian crowd. Last year, he lost in 5 sets to another contentious rival in David Nalbandian (Rusty has more than a few rivals on tour I guess). After the loss to Nalbandian, Darren Cahill speculated that 2011 was likely Hewitt’s final Australian Open. Here he is in 2012 with a giant challenge in front of him in Milos Raonic. I think Raonic is likely to win the match, but the young Canadian had best be careful not to let Hewitt push the match to a place where the crowd and experience become factors. Lleyton Hewitt could beat Raonic. If he does, his reward is likely to be world #1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic. Win or lose, I have to admire Hewitt’s desire to fight and compete. He’s got at least one or two main event fights on his hands, and that is just how Lleyton wants it.
The early rounds of Grand Slam play tend to be a lot of sparring and feeling out from the perspective of an avid fan. Top players typically advance, but form and attitude are things to gauge. Day 2 Down Under showed that Novak Djokovic looks healthy. Given how well this surface meshes with his game, a 3rd title seems quite plausible. Milos Raonic made short work of his first match. Quick matches and free points make me think Raonic could be there to challenge Djokovic in the round of 16. Juan Carlos Ferrero looked poised to pull an upset until the tide turned. These were all stories a fan could absorb on day 2.
A Tale of Two Losses
Sam Stosur’s 2011 US Open victory made me think she could be a multi-slam winner. Stosur has a big serve and a strong forehand. Her biggest weakness has been her mental game. A breakthrough win might have helped her to play without pressure and pile up even more results. The jury is still out on that possibility. A lot of players throw in a dud after winning a first Grand Slam title. Still, to lose early on her home turf is not a good sign. Stosur can play quite well on clay (see Paris 2010), but I think a poor French Open likely points toward a one slam career. In the current climate of women’s tennis, there is no reason she has to settle for one major, but I sadly think that is where this story is headed.
Ryan Harrison pushed Andy Murray hard for 3 sets. Harrison played well in fending off multiple break points. He showed good instincts on the court. He put some fear into Murray’s twitter fans. The 4th set was not as close, but in Harrison I think the US has a player who will at least be in the top 20 for multiple years. Harrison’s loss is a moral victory and a positive sign for his career. He may not have pulled out come from behind 5 set wins like Dologopolov and Tomic did. He did not mow down an opponent like Raonic did. However, none of those guys played Murray in the first round. If Ryan can work on channeling some of his negative energy on court, he could have a great hard court season in 2012.
France Moves Forward
France places a lot of players in the top 50. French players seem to be well adapted to all surfaces. Still, France has not had as much Grand Slam success as one might expect. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has played great tennis ever since the grass court season of 2011. Gael Monfils. Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet all joined Tsonga with first round victories. This surface should benefit Simon. Monfils overly defensive style also won’t be harmed by a slower hard court. Outside of Tsonga, I don’t see France producing a credible threat for the final, but I could see several French players in the second week.
Roddick x Hewitt
Godzilla movies started using X instead of versus for movie titles featuring Japan’s radioactive monster taking on some other behemoth. This will likely be one of if not the last Grand Slam battle between Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt. Their 2001 US Open battle was memorable for both the tight score line and the bile that was left on the court. Hewitt upended Roddick in the 2005 Australian Open semifinal round. That match also got nasty. At Wimbledon 2009, Hewitt bristled at Roddick’s suggestion that they were two old married guys. Hewitt lost in 5 sets and then discounted Roddick’s chances vs. Andy Murray in the semifinal round. This one should be a treat for long time tennis fans. My head says Roddick in 3 or 4, but I think Rusty will bring something special and this may go 5. The winner will likely face Raonic’s Godzilla-like power game in the round of 32.
