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Tennis Power Ranking 2013: Indian Wells

17 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #4

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.

2.  Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising.  Change since last Ranking +1

3.  Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings.  Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show.  Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players.  He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it.  Change since last ranking + 2

5.  Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time.  He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2.  My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing.  Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis.  Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5.  Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder.  Change since last ranking +3 

7.  David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013.  Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him.  Change since last ranking – 2

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic

Entered the Rankings – Milos Raonic

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March 12, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

12 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Third Round

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Bjorn Phau - Delpo should win in a straightforward match.

Sam Querrey (23) vs. Marinko Matosevic - USTA, “Help us Sam Querrey.  You’re our only hope.”

Andy Murray (3) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu - Murray wins

Kei Nishikori (16) vs. Carlos Berlocq - On paper, Nishikori should win, but I think Berlocq’s Latin American clay court run has him match tough.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (31) – Nole in 2, but this match is worth the price of admission.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Mardy Fish (32) – Will Tsonga take out Blake and Fish?

Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Almagro should win based on his 2013 Australian Open run, but I think Haas will advance due to a friendly crowd and surface for his game.

Marin Cilic (12) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – This is the most interesting match of the day.  The Croatian versus the Canadian with Serbian roots.  One is reclaiming lost momentum in his career.  The other is trying to move into another tier.  I think Raonic will win because he does have a top 5 serve even if the rest of his game is a work in progress.

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Tennis Power Rankings 2013: Chile and Beyond

11 Feb

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #2 

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is still in control.

2.  Andy Murray - He’s posted a 19-2 match record at the 3 most recent Grand Slam events.

3.  Roger Federer – Will Rotterdam move Federer into a tie for career titles with John McEnroe?

4.  David Ferrer – Horacio Zeballos preserved Ferrer’s #4 ranking.

5.  Rafael Nadal – A runner-up finish in his first event back on tour has Nadal in a holding pattern.  He did not look rusty, but he lost for only the 5th time in a clay court final.

6.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Change since last ranking +2

7.  Tomas Berdych – He did nothing wrong, but the big man had to make room for Gasquet.  Change since last ranking – 1

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – See #7.  Change since last ranking – 1 

9.  Horacio Zeballos - Anyone who beats Nadal in a clay court final gets some love.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

10.  Jeremy Chardy – His quarterfinal showing in Melbourne and semifinal in Chile land him in the top 10, but I would not bank on Chardy or Zeballos staying in my top 10 for long.  Marin Cilic could easily occupy the 9 0r 10 slot for this ranking.

Biggest Mover – Richard Gasquet +2

Dropped Out – Juan Martin del Potro

Entered the Rankings – Horacio Zeballos 

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Newport, Stuttgart, Umag and Bastad Predictions

14 Jul

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Hall of Fame Tennis Championships

Newport, RI Surface – Grass

1 John Isner vs. Lleyton Hewitt

Defending champion John Isner has played well to reach the final.  Ivo Karlovic has troubled Lleyton Hewitt in the past.  Still, this grass court season has favored veteran players.  I think that trend continues and Hewitt caps a magical week.  Lleyton will be getting inducted into the Hall of Fame at some point in the future so getting a win here and now will smooth that transition.

Mercedes Cup

Stuttgart, Germany Surface – Clay 

2 Juan Monaco vs. 1 Janko Tipsarevic

I think Janko has more talent than Monaco, but that Monaco is more steady.  On clay, I think steady beats talent so Monaco grinds out another title.  I have to give Monaco credit for pushing along and continuing to fight.  He took two of the most one-sided beatings I have ever seen at the 2011 US Open vs. Roger Federer and the 2012 French Open vs Rafael Nadal.  Monaco’s ranking and winning percentage are solid.

Studena Croatia Open

Umag, Croatia Surface – Clay

Marcel Granollers vs. 2 Marin Cilic

Cilic has been playing much better tennis as of late.  I think a win here could help push Cilic toward fulfilling at least some of the promise he showed at the 2009 US Open and 2010 Australian Open.  Granollers is a tough competitor, and he could take this title.  However, Cilic on home soil should build on recent momentum and win another title.

SkiStar Swedish Open

Bastad, Sweden Surface – Clay

2 Nicolas Almagro vs. 1 David Ferrer

 I love Almagro’s game and he did give Nadal his second toughest match at Roland Garros.  Ferrer is the percentage pick here. David reached the semifinal round at Roland Garros, won a grass court tune-up and then pushed Andy Murray hard in the Wimbledon quarterfinal round.  Ferrer winning another title would help to push him closer and closer to the big 4.

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Tennis Abides Podcast Number 1

18 Jun

Just click on the link and listen to the first Tennis Abides podcast

- Dan

Listen to this episode

PS – You can even download the file if you would like

Download this episode (right click and save)

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Cilic Wins while Nalbandian Makes News; Haas Defeats Federer

17 Jun

Marin Cilic and Tommy Haas win the two most important Wimbledon tune-up events.  Marin Cilic won his 8th career title and is moving toward a return to the top 10.  Tommy Haas beat an all time great grass court champion to win his 2nd title at Halle while capping an inspiring return from injuries.  Roger Federer lost at Halle.  All of these would be worthy stories were it not for this:

The day’s line will read Haas d. Federer 7-6, 6-4 & Cilic d. Nalbandian 7-6, 4-3

The real story may be the return of the stereotype of tennis players being spoiled and temperamental.  I am not trying to bash Nalbandian by laying at his feet the reputation of the entire sport, but I think Roger, Rafa and Nole have gone a long way to diminish the old way of viewing tennis pros.  The Trivalry built upon the good work of Guga, Carlos Moya, and Pat Rafter.   Obviously, every player has had a few moments he or she regrets, but this one in an era of youtube and twitter is not going to be easy for Nalbandian to forget.  The video says it all.

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Nalbandian vs. Cilic – Queen’s Club Final Prediction

16 Jun

David Nalbandian is a great ball striker who has had injury and fitness issues dampen his career.  Marin Cilic is a talented player who looked to be on the verge of the top 5 in early 2010.  The two have already gained momentum for Wimbledon, but the winner may be a spoiler capable of knocking out a top 10 seed.

My Prediction

Cilic’s win over a resurgent Sam Querrey, Sam deserves credit for battling back into main tour form, sets him up nicely.  Cilic has a great serve and big forehand.  Nalbandian has a great ability to change the direction of the ball.  I think Cilic will win this match in 3 sets.

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Halle Final Prediction – Federer vs. Haas

16 Jun

Quick Transition from Clay to Grass

As I mentioned earlier this week, it is hard to appreciate the French Open results for too long because a brand new season begins on grass courts.  At the close of the French Open, Roger Federer seemed to have fallen further behind Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.  Now, Federer is in his 5th tournament final of the year.  Nadal lost in his second grass court singles match.  I would not read too much into Nadal’s loss, but if Federer wins Halle, he may very well be part of the trivalry on faster courts.

30 and Over Affair

Give Tommy Haas a ton of credit.  He has gotten relatively healthy again and played admirably well throughout 2012.  At 34, Haas has overcome so many injuries that his play is inspirational  (heck, I am only 36).  I think Haas has a reasonable shot at pulling the upset.  He has to be pumped up to be playing so well.  Andy Roddick mentioned that among guys who broke through when he did that only Federer is really still going strong.  Roddick’s assessment is a tad dismissive of Lleyton Hewitt, David Ferrer and Juan Carlos Ferrero’s efforts on tour.  Even Nalbandian is still winning matches here and there.  Haas is 5 years older than Roddick!

Prediction:

This match could be played on Jim Courier’s Champion’s Tour.  I think Roger wins in 2 tight sets.  Haas has a chance, but the youthful Federer should win his 5th title of 2012.

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French Open Predictions for June 1, 2012

31 May

Predicted Winners in BOLD

1 Novak Djokovic vs. Nicolas Devilder – Faustian bargain or not for Nicolas, I think Djokovic will overcome the diminutive Devilder in 3 sets.

22 Andreas Seppi vs. 14 Fernando Verdasco – I think Verdasco is favored, but Verdasco, like Gasquet, can lose when no one would expect it.  Seppi is good enough to hang around and grind out a win unless Verdasco is mentally sharp.

11 Gilles Simon vs. 18 Stanislas Wawrinka – I think Simon in France finds a way.  Wawrinka could overpower Gilles, but my guess is Simon grinds and retrieves enough shots to draw out errors from the #2 Swiss.

Fabio Fognini vs. 5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – It is odd for Tsonga to be seeded so highly, but he really piled up points from the outset of the grass court season in 2011 through the season finale in London.  I am torn as I think Tsonga could lose here.

3 Roger Federer vs. Nicolas Mahut – Fed’s draw to the round of 16 looked somewhat tough, but the path has cleared.  Federer wins in a routine match.

David Goffin vs. Lukasz Kubot – (Honestly, did anyone pick these two to meet?) I was going to pick Goffin here, but he did play the qualifying draw and his legs may be shot.  Both have a great chance to reach the final 16.

9 Juan Martin del Potro vs. 21 Marin Cilic – As I said earlier, Delpo has a mental edge against Cilic.

31 Kevin Anderson vs. 7 Tomas Berdych – Outside of the top 3 seeds, Berdych and Delpo are the next most likely players to hold the trophy when the clay settles.

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Big Man Tennis: JMDP vs. Cilic & Berdych vs. Anderson

31 May

Big Man Bracket

We know that at least one of the eight quarterfinalists at the 2012 French Open will be at least 6’5″ or 196 cm tall.  Juan Martin del Potro faces Marin Cilic in the round of 32.  Both Delpo and Cilic are 6’6″ or 198 cm tall.  This looked like a promising rivalry after the 2009 US Open and 2010 Australian Open in which each man eliminated the other.  Delpo got hurt, and 2010 became a wash for him.  His solid 2011 results helped to re-establish Delpo as a threat on tour, and 2012 has continued his comeback story.  Cilic has been an enigma.  His game seems quite sound, but the second half of 2010 and all of 2011 were pretty mediocre for the Croatian.  Cilic has shown signs of life in 2012.  This rivalry has not become Wilt vs. Russell for tennis, but it still has potential to be good.  My guess is Delpo advances to the round of 16 with a four set win.  Juan Martin del Potro is one of the most mentally tough players on tour, and that should be enough to advance versus Cilic.

Kevin Anderson is 6’8″ or 203 cm tall.  He will face the diminutive 6’5″ 0r 195 cm Tomas Berdych.  Anderson has done quite well to reach the third round on a slow surface as he plays the most overtly aggressive style of tennis of these four big men.  Still, Berdych is playing maybe the fourth or fifth best clay court tennis in the world at the moment.  I expect Berdych will advances to face Delpo in a red rematch of their blue Madrid semifinal.

Based on form, Berdych will reach the quarterfinal round with a win over Juan Martin del Potro.  Still, I want to see their form in their round of 32 matches before giving a definitive pick for the round of 16.

While the big man takeover that some predicted after the 2009 US Open has never taken place, it is interesting to note that Anderson is the lowest ranked of this foursome as the world’s 34th best player.  John Isner has had some big Davis Cup moments in 2012.  Maybe the ideal height for tennis is shifting upward even if it has not done so in the dramatic fashion many expected after 2009.

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