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Tennis Power Ranking 2013: Indian Wells

17 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #4

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.

2.  Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising.  Change since last Ranking +1

3.  Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings.  Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show.  Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players.  He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it.  Change since last ranking + 2

5.  Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time.  He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2.  My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing.  Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis.  Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5.  Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder.  Change since last ranking +3 

7.  David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013.  Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him.  Change since last ranking – 2

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic

Entered the Rankings – Milos Raonic

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March 13, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

13 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Fourth Round

Andy Murray (3) vs. Carlos Berlocq - Murray should win in two easy sets as Berlocq has no weapons to threaten Murray.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Ernests Gulbis - Gulbis is on a hot streak and Nadal is maybe not sure about hard courts.  Still, Rafa is the smart pick.

Gilles Simon (13) vs. Kevin Anderson - Simon has struggled versus Isner who is the best analog for Anderson I can find.  Also, Anderson beat Ferrer who is a good analog for Simon.  I love Gilles’ game, but the big man advances.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Sam Querrey (23) – Sam beat Nole last fall.  Lightening is not going to strike twice.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18) – Stan may seem due to beat Roger , but for the most part this is a one-sided friendly Swiss rivalry.

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Richard Gasquet (10) – Two of the hottest players in 2013 collide.  I think Berdych wins due to having more weapons even if his game is less imaginative than Gasquet’s.

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Delpo already got to beat up on Davydenko and Hewitt.  I think the oldest man in the draw pulls off a mild upset to avenge the other veterans.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – Milos has to breakthrough at some point; why not now?

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March 12, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

12 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Third Round

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Bjorn Phau - Delpo should win in a straightforward match.

Sam Querrey (23) vs. Marinko Matosevic - USTA, “Help us Sam Querrey.  You’re our only hope.”

Andy Murray (3) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu - Murray wins

Kei Nishikori (16) vs. Carlos Berlocq - On paper, Nishikori should win, but I think Berlocq’s Latin American clay court run has him match tough.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (31) – Nole in 2, but this match is worth the price of admission.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Mardy Fish (32) – Will Tsonga take out Blake and Fish?

Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Almagro should win based on his 2013 Australian Open run, but I think Haas will advance due to a friendly crowd and surface for his game.

Marin Cilic (12) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – This is the most interesting match of the day.  The Croatian versus the Canadian with Serbian roots.  One is reclaiming lost momentum in his career.  The other is trying to move into another tier.  I think Raonic will win because he does have a top 5 serve even if the rest of his game is a work in progress.

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10 Olympic Takeaways

9 Aug
  1. Serena Williams adds to her sublime legacy with decisive gold medals in singles and doubles.  Serena has career Golden Slams in singles and doubles now.  Fodder for a GOAT debate?
  2. Speed Kills – Andy Murray took a huge step by winning 5 straight sets over Djokovic and Federer en route to a gold medal in singles.  Throw in a silver in mixed doubles and Murray has gotten most if not all of the monkey off of his back.  A first Grand Slam title could be coming in New York or Melbourne.
  3. Victoria Azarenka won her first Grand Slam in January.  She has added a bronze medal in singles and a gold medal in mixed doubles to her trophy case for 2012.
  4. Roger Federer finally got a medal in singles after coming so close in 2000.  He achieved a career Silver Slam in London.  Federer seemed to have a good perspective on his 2nd place showing.  Still, the final match reminded me a bit of what Safin and Hewitt did to Sampras in the 2000 and 2001 US Open championship matches.
  5. Juan Martin del Potro helped put on a match for the ages that demonstrated how much Olympic success means to tennis players.  He followed up heartbreak with a win over Djokovic.  This piece by Dan Wetzel summed up the match far better than I can.
  6. Venus Williams could have a great career as a doubles specialist if her illness stymies her singles ambitions.
  7. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic showed heart and nerve in their on court battle.  Maybe they should team to face JMDP and Federer in a charity doubles match.  Tsonga did pick up a silver in doubles.
  8. Color did not hurt the atmosphere at Wimbledon.
  9. Tennis may be huge in Rio, but the shift from grass to clay to hard courts was difficult in 1992.
  10. Maria Sharapova also achieved a career Silver Slam in singles.

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Power Ranking for the Week of June 11 – June 17

11 Jun

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of June 11 through June 17

The French Open Reshapes My Top 10

1.  Rafael Nadal - A French Open title, two Masters 1000 titles and 3 consecutive wins over Nole have Rafa moving into the top spot.  Change from last ranking +1

2.  Novak Djokovic – Nole surrenders the top spot in my non-binding Power Ranking.  Nole should welcome a chance in surfaces.  Change from last ranking – 1 

3. Roger Federer – The Fed has won a lot of matches and tournaments since the 2011 US Open closed.  Still, he is clearly behind two younger players.  His confidence and mental toughness have dipped against Rafa and Nole too.

4.  David Ferrer - A semifinal in Paris was rewarded with a beating from Rafa.  I will be more kind and reward David with a slot in the top 4.  Change from last ranking +1

5.  Juan Martin del Potro - Delpo is looking solid so long as he can remain healthy.  Confidence and health are all the stands between JMDP and the #3 ranking.  Change from last ranking + 2

6.  Tomas Berdych - If you are looking for a Wimbledon dark horse Berdych is a good candidate.  In 2010, he beat Federer and Djokovic at SW19.  Berdych has been solid in 2012 and will benefit from the surface change.  Change from last ranking – 2

7.  Andy Murray - What has happened to Andy’s promising start to 2012?  I am predicting that the Lendl experiment will not last beyond the US Open. 

8.  Nicolas Almagro – He played Nadal as tough as anyone in the first 6 rounds of the French Open.  Almagro’s serve and power give him a shot at a nice hard court season. 

9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Tsonga turned his game on at the start of the 2011 grass court season.  If he uses some momentum from the French Open, Tsonga could have a big remainder to the year.  If he worries about defending points, Tsonga will struggle.  Change from Last Ranking – Not Ranked

10.  Milos Raonic – He played well enough in Paris to think he could have a big summer on surfaces that reward his serve a bit more.  Change from last week – Not Ranked

Biggest Movers – Rafael Nadal moved to number 1 &  Novak Djokovic dropped off of number 1

Dropped Out of the Rankings – Gilles Simon and Janko Tipsarevic

Entered the Rankings – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic

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French Open Predictions for June 2, 2012

1 Jun

Predicted Winners in BOLD

I went 6-2 with my June 1 Picks

2 Rafael Nadal vs. Eduardo Schwank  – Rafa rolls

A big serve during Raonic’s blue period

13 Juan Monaco vs. 19 Milos Raonic – This may be the toughest match for me to predict.  Monaco is a fighter who will spill his guts to win.  Raonic’s serve is the best in the business.  Monaco beat Isner on clay in Houston so he should have some frame of reference.  Still, I am going to pick Raonic in a mild upset.  I don’t think either man can beat Rafa in the round of 16, but I do think each man is unlikely to play frightened if he gets the chance to face Nadal.

12 Nicolas Almagro vs. Leonardo Mayer – In the seco0nd Argentine vs. Spaniard match of the day, I think the Spaniard wins.   Almagro has quietly had a great year to this point, and I think he advances.

29 Julien Benneteau vs. 8 Janko Tipsarevic – I could see this match go either direction, but Tipsy is in the top 10 for a reason.

4 Andy Murray vs. Santiago Giraldo – Murray should win unless his back is in terrible shape.

17 Richard Gasquet vs. Tommy Haas – Gasquet beat the future of one-handed backhands in Grigor.  Haas is the past of one-handed backhand excellence.  I think Gasquet wins even if I have a rule to always doubt Gasquet.

Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. Marcel Granollers – I think if Mathieu has enough left in the tank after his marathon vs. Isner he will win.  Given that Mathieu is a fitness not, I think he will be fine.  Given that Mathieu has an injured (broken?) toe, I think Granollers has a chance.

27 Mikhail Youzhny vs. 6 David Ferrer – This is an intriguing match.  I think Ferrer has to win based on steadiness, fight and fitness.  Youzhny has the game and variety to disrupt Ferrer’s desired metronome-like rhythm for rallying.  Still, in three out of five sets the consistency of Ferrer should prevail.

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Power Ranking for the Week of May 14 – May 20

13 May

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of May 14 through May 20

(a lot of changes from the last few weeks)

1.  Novak Djokovic – Novak is the number one player in the world, but the next few months will be interesting.

2. Roger Federer – Titles in Dubai, Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Madrid have Roger Federer surging in the computer rankings an in my 2012 Power Ranking.  Change from last week +1

3.  Rafael Nadal – Rafa seems very negative in his demeanor and verbiage this season.  I think he can harness anger in the short term to some success, but it does not seem like a formula for long-term success.  Change from last week – 1

4. Juan Martin del Potro – Winning Estoril and making a solid run in Madrid have JMDP moving ahead of Andy Murray in my eyes.  Change from last week + 1

5.  Andy Murray -  Missing Madrid assured a drop.  Change from last week – 1

6. Tomas Berdych – Big Berd crushed Monfils and Verdasco  He then beat JMDP in a cole match before losing a tight final to Federer.  Both Berdych and JMDP have to be considered second tier title contenders in Paris.  Change from last week +2
7.  David Ferrer – Rome offers one more chance to topple the guys ahead of him before Paris.  Change from last week – 1
8.  Nicolas Almagro – He is still not quite a second tier contender on the dirt.  Change from last week – 1

9. Gilles Simon - Solid enough to be #9 on the countdown.

10.  Janko Tipsarevic – Tipsy upset Nole and reached the Madrid semifinal round.  That is enough to enter the top 10.  Change from last week – Not Ranked

Dropped Out – Milos Raonic

Mover of the Week – Tomas Berdych +2

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Power Ranking for the Week of April 29 – May 5, 2012

30 Apr

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of April 29 through May 5

1.  Novak Djokovic – Novak is the number one player in the world, but he will face challenges to remain number one in 2012.

2. Rafael Nadal – A seventh consecutive Barcelona title have Nadal surging.  He is the greatest ever on clay.  No one has dominated a surface like he has.


3.  Roger Federer – Fed’s 2012 titles in Dubai, Rotterdam and Indian Wells have him ranked number three.

4.  Andy Murray -  David Ferrer nearly passed Murray.  Raonic is good and getting better, but that is a match Murray needed to win.

5.  David Ferrer – Near misses are hard to gauge.  Is Ferrer close to a big run or is he forever outside of the top four?

6. Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo has played well prior to the clay court swing, but I think some of his comeback momentum might slow on the soft courts of Europe.

7.  Nicolas Almagro – Almagro holds steady for now despite a loss to Raonic.

8.  Tomas Berdych – Berdych is still in my top eight.

9. Gilles Simon - A solid week in Monte Carlo followed by a title has Simon rising.  Change since last week – Not Ranked

10.  Milos Raonic – The big kid has won two titles in 2012, been runner-up at another and just logged two strong wins on clay before losing a close match to David Ferrer.  If Raoinic plays clay court tennis a la Isner (i.e. serve bombs to hold and take cuts at the slower bounces), he could be a factor in some big matches this year.  Change since last week – Not Ranked

Dropped Out – Juan Monaco and John Isner

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Barcelona, Stuttgart and Bucharest Semifinal Picks

28 Apr

Projected Winners in BOLD

There is a slate of interesting matches for all three events.  Here are my picks:

Barcelona

1 Rafael Nadal vs. 9 Fernando Verdasco – Rafa should win this match in a fairly straightforward manner.  Verdasco did stage a classic with Nadal at the 2009 Australian Open, but I would be shocked if Verdasco offered that much resistance in 2012.

3 David Ferrer vs. 11 Milos Raonic – Milos’ serve is the biggest weapon possessed by the three semifinalists not named Rafa.  It takes weapons to beat Rafa, and I would love to see that final (one in which I would pick Rafa to win), but I think Ferrer advances.

Stuttgart

1 Victoria Azarenka vs. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska – I could say law of averages makes Aga due for a win vs. Vika, but I will stick with the world number one to advance.

 2 Maria Sharapova vs. 3 Petra Kvitova – I think Petra is the more natural athlete and on clay that makes a big difference.

Bucharest

1 Gilles Simon vs. Matthias Bachinger – Simon continues his Monte Carlo form with a win.

Fabio Fognini vs. Attila Balazs – Fognini is a solid clay court player so I expect him to advance.

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Wertheim, Raonic and Other Thoughts

27 Apr

Jon Wertheim’s Mailbag Abides

Jon Wertheim commented on an observation I made about the possible benefits of Rafael Nadal playing slowly in his weekly mailbag.  Here are Jon’s thoughts:

I think Nadal’s slow play does benefit him in one key area. Nadal’s ability to concentrate is a comparative advantage against anyone not named Deep Blue. By lengthening the match, I believe Nadal’s mental focus stays close to 100 percent whereas his opponent can begin to lose some strategic and/or tactical clarity. As you pointed out regarding the Australian Open semifinal matches, a few points can make the difference. I would add that a few bad decisions by the opposition can lead to those very points going Rafa’s way.
– Dan Martin, Park Hills, Ky.

• That’s interesting. And, of course, it’s easy to see how an opponent’s concentration could waver. It’s not simply the extra time. It’s the fact that those extra 10 or 15 seconds are different from conventional rhythms. You can liken this to all sorts of situations. If all of your essay tests in school are an hour, but one teacher gives a 75-minute test, you can see how this could throw off a student. If your match.com date pauses an extra few seconds before answering your questions (“How bad is your commute?” “Do you watch ‘Mad Men?’” “How did people meet before the interweb?”) your whole rap gets thrown off, I suspect.

Krishan of Houston also raised the point that whereas Federer is quick and decisive, Nadal uses this time to recuperate physically and also gather himself mentally for the next point: “If you take that away from him [i.e. "enforce the rules"] he loses a considerable part of his game,” Krishan writes.

Again, a shot clock eliminates this complaint — and a knock on the sport’s top two players — and I don’t really see a downside. It’s another fan-friendly innovation (inasmuch as a device used by other sports for the last half-century innovates.) It’s not prohibitively expensive. And if there were inconsistencies with respect when the chair began the countdown, so what? The players would adjust accordingly.

Milos Raonic Wins a Couple of Big Clay Court Matches

Milos Raonic defeated Nicolas Almagro in straight sets.  That was a nice win on clay.  Today, Raonic who has a top five serve faced a man with a top five return in Andy Murray.  On clay, I would expect this to tilt toward Murray.  However, Raonic beat Murray in straight sets as well.  If Milos can play a bit like Isner does on clay by serving bombs but then also using the extra split second the surface affords to take cracks at returns and groundstrokes, he can be a tough out in 2012.  By 2013 or 2014, who knows.  I like Nadal to win Barcelona, and I think Raonic would be an interesting final opponent for Rafa.

Other Thoughts

  • Part 5 of my GOAT series focusing on Rafa should be up soon
  • Andy Murray is in an odd phase of his new coaching arrangement with Ivan Lendl.  How Murray handles this turbulence will be important.  Can he keep an eye on long term improvement or will losses dent his confidence?
  • I watched some junior tennis players this week and have to say that serve and volley is not just an endangered species on the pro tour.  Everyone I saw more or less played the same heavy baseline game.

 

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