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Assessing 2012 To This Point

5 Apr

ATP Overview – Novak’s World

Djokovic is still dominating

  1. Novak Djokovic is indeed still the man in the world of tennis.  His 60 Minutes interview helped introduce him to a broader audience.  He does not have the win-loss record he had at this point in 2011, but Novak has won the biggest event of 2012 and won one of the two other big tournaments of the year.  Also, Novak’s win over Andy Murray in Miami dispels any notions that Murray’s near miss in Australia and win in Dubai signal a change in the landscape of tennis.
  2. Roger Federer is alive and kicking.  Winning Indian Wells, Dubai and Rotterdam demonstrate that Roger can still string together great events.  Indian Wells and Dubai are two of the four biggest events of the year to this point.  Roger has to feel like he could win one of the next three slams.
  3. Andy Murray is still not on par with the three people ahead of him.  Near misses have to take a toll on Murray’s confidence.  I am not sure how he can look at his play in Melbourne, Dubai and Miami and not feel frustrated.  Still, I think Lendl is helping Murray.  As a friend recently stated, Murray just needs to stay sharp and be ready.  At some point, maybe a draw opens up or a player’s form dips.  If Murray is ready to capitalize, he can win.
  4. Nadal is a mystery.  Rafa has played well enough in 2012 to expect him to continue to be Nole’s top rival, but withdrawing from Miami and dropping off of the ATP council just seem odd.
  5. A legitimate fifth top tier contender has yet to emerge.  Milos Raonic has two titles and had one runner-up finish in 2012, but he’s been banged up and not yet won against top competition.  Juan Martin del Potro looks like a top 10 player, but his four losses to Federer and loss to fifth ranked David Ferrer tell me Delpo still needs to traverse a gulf to contend for slams again.  David Ferrer has played well in 2012.  He just lacks the weapons to be on the level of the top four.  Finally, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended 2011 on an upward trend and won Qatar to start 2012.  Since then, he’s been at best sadly uneven.

WTA – Vika’s Rise, Kvitova’s Malaise and Maria’s Near Misses

WTA Execs would like to see more of the above in 2012

  1. Victoria Azarenka has banked a lot of momentum and computer points.  I think Azarenka will finish 2012 number one and likely win a second major before the year ends.
  2. Petra Kvitova has not maintained the level of play that led to her strong finish from 2011.  The WTA needs Azarenka, Kvitova, and maybe Wozniacki to produce big stories in the next few years.  WTA executives would feel better if these big stories started now and not in 2013 or 2014.
  3. Maria Sharapova is struggling to close out events.  In one sense, Maria has had a great 2012.  She has been more consistent than anyone other than Victoria Azarenka.  She has backed up her number two ranking.  However, she has not come close to looking like anything other than second best.  Even when she served well Sharapova lost the Sony Ericsson final in straight sets.  Asking what could have been too many times is not good for a player’s mind.

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Power Ranking for the Week of 3-4-2012 through 3-10-2012

4 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings

for the Week of March 4 through March 10

1.  Novak Djokovic – Novak is still holding the top spot, but his loss to Murray in Dubai is cause for some concern as Murray seems to trouble Nole.

2.  Rafael Nadal – An Australian Open runner-up finish has Nadal holding #2 for now, but Federer’s Dubai title has Fed close to #2.

3. Roger Federer - Fed’s titles in Dubai and Rotterdam have him looking strong.  72 career titles.  Change from last week +1

4. Andy Murray – It is a little harsh to lose a spot after beating the #1 player in the world in straight sets, but Federer does leapfrog Murray because he beat Murray.  Change from last week – 1

5.  David Ferrer – Winning a title in Mexico following his title in Argentina confirms Ferrer’s ATP computer ranking.  Ferrer has to get some attention as a contender in Paris.

6.  Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo let Federer off of the hook in the second set tiebreak, but Delpo is slowly showing he is in the top tier of the game.  To break into the Big Four, he will need a signature win or two.

7.  Nicolas Almagro – Almagro is playing well enough to hold his spot.

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Tsonga is struggling with Delpo, but stays where he is.

9.  Tomas Berdych – He still owes Almagro a handshake, but he has played solidly well in 2012 as well as in late 2011.

10.  Milos Raonic – Kind of a sentimental pick here, but he has played well enough in 2012 to hold this slot in my non-binding rankings.  Two titles and one runner-up finish will keep him at #10.

Youtube Tennis for 2-27-2012 through 3-3-2012

27 Feb

1.  Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in Dubai

2. David Ferrer vs. Nicolas Almagro in Mexico

 3.  Milos Raonic’s Serve in SloMo

4.  Jimmy Connors vs. Ivan Lendl at Wimbledon 1984

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2012 ATP Power Rankings

26 Feb

This is a new feature in which I will combine the overall flow of the ATP Tour for the past 52 weeks with recent trends to arrive at my own current rankings.  Tomorrow, I will have another Youtube Tennis entry up and my GOAT series will resume this week as well.  Much like college basketball has the RPI as well as human polls, I would treat this like my ballot for a press based poll.

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings

for the Week of February 26 through March 3

1.  Novak Djokovic – With all of the precincts reporting Novak Djokovic is in clear command of the ATP Tour.

2.  Rafael Nadal – An Australian Open runner-up finish has Nadal holding #2 for now, but a Murray or Federer title in Dubai might tilt against Rafa.

3.  Andy Murray – My first deviation from the ATP rankings.  Murray like Federer has a 250 point title and an Australian Open semifinal loss, but Murray showed strides down under so he’s #3 for now.

4.  Roger Federer – The title in Rotterdam must make Roger wish there were more important indoor events a la the 1990′s.  Fed’s Davis Cup performance vs. the US has placed Federer below Murray for now.

5.  David Ferrer – A title in Argentina over a strong Nicolas Almagro confirms Ferrer’s ATP computer ranking.

6.  Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo has a title, a runner-up finish and a Grand Slam quarterfinal to his name.  Lost in his one-sided loss to Federer down under was that Delpo had reached his first quarter at a major since 2009.  Brick by brick he is rebuilding.

7.  Nicolas Almagro – Almagro has a title and a runner-up finish over the past two weeks.  He is the third best player from Spain, but that is saying something.

8.  J0-Wilfried Tsonga – Tsonga won Qatar and was a semifinalist this week.  A better Aussie Open would have been nice, but Tsonga is still clearly in the tier just below the top four.

9.  Tomas Berdych – He still owes Almagro a handshake, but he has played solidly well in 2012 as well as in late 2011.

10.  Milos Raonic – Raonic came up short in the Memphis final again.  He still has work to do, but his serve gives him a credible weapon around which to build the rest of his game.  Two titles and one runner-up showing in 2012 earn Raonic a top 10 slot.

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Youtube Tennis for the Week of 2-20-2012

20 Feb

Big Wins for Almagro, Azarenka, Federer and Raonic

1. Roger Federer vs. Juan Martin del Potro Rotterdam 2012 Highlights

Federer wins his 71st career title beating Juan Martin del Potro for the second time in 2012.  Delpo crashed the finals by demolishing Tomas Berdych.

2.  Milos Raonic won his 2nd title of 2012.  Here are some highlights of his win in India earlier this year.  It is a good sign that Raonic defended his title from 2011.

3.  Nicolas Almagro won the Brasil Open yet again.  Here is some video of Almagro practicing.  He has a great ground game.

4.  Victoria Azarenka continues her run as the #1 player in the world with a title in Doha.  Azarenka may finally restore order to the WTA Tour.  Greater predictability helps the sport so hats off to Vika.

5.  A nice interview with Rod Laver.

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Australian Open Day 6 Men’s Picks

20 Jan

Quick Picks

Predicted Winners in Bold

  1. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga already advanced so no need to pick here.
  2. Andy Murray should beat Michael Llodra in straight sets.  Llodra has enough talent to take one set, but I don’t expect Murray to be troubled.
  3. Novak Djokovic should win easily vs. Nicolas Mahut.
  4. David Ferrer should beat Juan Ignacio Chela in 3 or 4 sets.  I expect a lot of rallies.  Ferrer benefits as the match progresses.
  5. Janko Tipsarevic should win in 3 or 4 sets vs. Richard Gasquet.  Janko is playing well, and Gasquet is just not steady enough in my mind to win.
  6. I think Milos Raonic beats Lleyton Hewitt in 4 sets, but if this gets to a 5th set the advantage shifts heavily to Hewitt.
  7. I am picking Mikhail Kukushkin in a mild upset over Gael Monfils.  Kukushkin is solid.  Monfils should have momentum after his runner-up finish in Qatar (not to mention his win over Nadal), but I just think he will play too far behind the baseline to win.
  8. Kei Nishikori and Julien Benneteau are both nice players.  This is a hard one to call, but I think Nishikori wins 4 tight sets against the veteren Frenchmen.

What do you think?

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2012 Australian Open Day 4: Lendl and Murray + Hewitt v. Roddick

19 Jan

6 Quick Hits

  • Petra Kvitova lost a set and Chris Evert stated that she is not yet fully fit and will likely not win this Australian Open.  This is something to follow.
  • Novak Djokovic looks solid, and a showdown with Milos Raonic seems like a great round of 16 match.
  • Kei Nishikori could surprise people in Melbourne despite needing 5 sets to reach the 3rd round.
  • David Ferrer and Janko Tipsarevic are going to be hard outs in the draw.
  • Nicolas Mahut has little chance vs. Djokovic, but his 3rd round entrance helps him not solely be remembered as an answer to a trivia question.
  • Maria Sharapova is destroying people, but I am still skeptical about her second serve.

Ivan Lendl – Game Changer

Ivan Lendl’s tenure as Andy Murray’s coach is either going to be really successful or really short.  Lendl is not going to put up with Murray’s traditional barbs toward his coach/family during matches.  Lendl is still an intimidating figure.  Some critics of Roger Federer complain about Federer giving off an imperious vibe.  Lendl has that vibe too, but it is far less genial than Federer’s.  I like seeing Lendl back, and I think projecting an imperious persona is not bad for Federer or Lendl.  Lendl however seems menacing in a way that will should help Murray.  If Murray is smart enough, he can learn by osmosis.  Lendl struggled to break through at the Grand Slams, but once he did at the French Open in 1984, 1985-1987 were displays of dominance.  Aside from imitating Lendl’s demeanor, Lendl’s toughness may also make Murray fear him more than the expectations of Great Britain or than Nadal’s resolve.  That too can only help Murray.

Roddick 7 – Hewitt 7

After 14 matches, Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt are knotted up at 7-7.  This match was a lot like their French Open match in 2001 in which Roddick also had to retire due to an injury.  It would have been great to see another contentious 5 set grudge match a la Wimbledon 2009, but unfortunately injury struck.  I feel for Roddick who put in a lot of road work during the late portions of 2011.  Lleyton Hewitt, who has undergone 5 surgeries in 4 years, has to feel good about being in the round of 32 at a Grand Slam again.  I doubt that we get to see too many more clashes between these two, but this would be an unsatisfying ending to their rivalry so I hope for at least one more match in a big event.

Roddick has a lot to look forward to in 2012 with the Olympics being on grass.  Still, this injury and loss have to be crushing.  Where do things head from here?  If I were Roddick, I might skip the clay court season and just focus on being optimally prepared for Wimbledon, the Olympic games and the US Open.  I am not sure where his career will go after 2012.  I doubt he will retire at the end of the year, but injuries and a declining ranking put him in a tight spot.

For Hewitt, he got a lot of love from the Australian crowd.  Last year, he lost in 5 sets to another contentious rival in David Nalbandian (Rusty has more than a few rivals on tour I guess).  After the loss to Nalbandian, Darren Cahill speculated that 2011 was likely Hewitt’s final Australian Open.  Here he is in 2012 with a giant challenge in front of him in Milos Raonic.  I think Raonic is likely to win the match, but the young Canadian had best be careful not to let Hewitt push the match to a place where the crowd and experience become factors.  Lleyton Hewitt could beat Raonic.  If he does, his reward is likely to be world #1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic.  Win or lose, I have to admire Hewitt’s desire to fight and compete.  He’s got at least one or two main event fights on his hands, and that is just how Lleyton wants it.

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2012 Australian Open Day 2 – French Advancement, Harrison and Raonic Impress & Stosur Stumbles

17 Jan

The early rounds of Grand Slam play tend to be a lot of sparring and feeling out from the perspective of an avid fan.  Top players typically advance, but form and attitude are things to gauge.  Day 2 Down Under showed that Novak Djokovic looks healthy.  Given how well this surface meshes with his game, a 3rd title seems quite plausible.  Milos Raonic made short work of his first match.  Quick matches and free points make me think Raonic could be there to challenge Djokovic in the round of 16.  Juan Carlos Ferrero looked poised to pull an upset until the tide turned.  These were all stories a fan could absorb on day 2.

  A Tale of Two Losses

Sam Stosur’s 2011 US Open victory made me think she could be a multi-slam winner.  Stosur has a big serve and a strong forehand.  Her biggest weakness has been her mental game.  A breakthrough win might have helped her to play without pressure and pile up even more results.  The jury is still out on that possibility.  A lot of players throw in a dud after winning a first Grand Slam title.  Still, to lose early on her home turf is not a good sign.  Stosur can play quite well on clay (see Paris 2010), but I think a poor French Open likely points toward a one slam career.  In the current climate of women’s tennis, there is no reason she has to settle for one major, but I sadly think that is where this story is headed.

Ryan Harrison pushed Andy Murray hard for 3 sets.  Harrison played well in fending off multiple break points.  He showed good instincts on the court.  He put some fear into Murray’s twitter fans.  The 4th set was not as close, but in Harrison I think the US has a player who will at least be in the top 20 for multiple years.  Harrison’s loss is a moral victory and a positive sign for his career.  He may not have pulled out come from behind 5 set wins like Dologopolov and Tomic did.  He did not mow down an opponent like Raonic did.  However, none of those guys played Murray in the first round. If Ryan can work on channeling some of his negative energy on court, he could have a great hard court season in 2012.

France Moves Forward

France places a lot of players in the top 50.  French players seem to be well adapted to all surfaces.  Still, France has not had as much Grand Slam success as one might expect.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has played great tennis ever since the grass court season of 2011.  Gael Monfils. Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet all joined Tsonga with first round victories.  This surface should benefit Simon.  Monfils overly defensive style also won’t be harmed by a slower hard court.  Outside of Tsonga, I don’t see France producing a credible threat for the final, but I could see several French players in the second week.

Roddick x Hewitt

Godzilla movies started using X instead of versus for movie titles featuring Japan’s radioactive monster taking on some other behemoth.  This will likely be one of if not the last Grand Slam battle between Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt.  Their 2001 US Open battle was memorable for both the tight score line and the bile that was left on the court.  Hewitt upended Roddick in the 2005 Australian Open semifinal round.  That match also got nasty.  At Wimbledon 2009, Hewitt bristled at Roddick’s suggestion that they were two old married guys.  Hewitt lost in 5 sets and then discounted Roddick’s chances vs. Andy Murray in the semifinal round.  This one should be a treat for long time tennis fans.  My head says Roddick in 3 or 4, but I think Rusty will bring something special and this may go 5.  The winner will likely face Raonic’s Godzilla-like power game in the round of 32.

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Milos Raonic Leads a New Wave

12 Jan

Historical Waves

Tennis players tend to arrive in waves.  Pete Sampras was so dominant that his generation, including Andre Agassi, Jim Courier, Sergi Bruguera, Goran Ivanisevic, Thomas Muster, Michael Chang, and Richard Krajicek, more or less eclipsed the next group of promising players.  To be sure, Gustavo Kuerten, Patrick Rafter and Yevgeny Kafelnikov made marks in the historical records, but most others failed to break through on the biggest stages of tennis.  That led to the New Balls generation taking the reigns starting with Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt’s successes in 2000 and 2001.  Guga could be placed with this group as he was part of the promotional campaign, but he was older than most of the featured players.  Juan Carlos Ferrero and Andy Roddick broke through in 2003, but Roger Federer’s 16 major titles set a benchmark for him as the greatest and last champion of the New Balls Era.

The Nadal-Djokovic Era

Federer has had more Grand Slam successes than Sampras did, but he did not crowd out most of the players 4-6 years his junior.  This is mainly due to the preternatural motor that Rafael Nadal possesses.  Nadal led a post New Balls wave of players into the elite levels of tennis starting in 2005.  Novak Djokovic broke through in 2007 and early 2008.  Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have all reached at least one major final.  This generation players just now seem to be sinking their collective teeth into the tour.  Federer is the lone hold out from the previous era who is still a plausible threat.

Raonic’s Brood

Still, that does not keep us from looking ahead.  Last week, tennis fans saw Milos Raonic win a title over a top 10 opponent in a tense final.  Milos impressed Pete Sampras during the off season.  Alexandr Dolgopolov was runner-up at another Australian Open tune-up. Bernard Tomic earned Andy Murray’s praise.  Ryan Harrison has some buzz.  It remains to be seen if this next wave will produce a champion of Sampras, Federer or Nadal’s caliber.  This next wave may end up with players more along the lines of Thomas Enqvist.  Perhaps, a tandem of champions similar to Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg will emerge.  I think the window for piling up majors is broader today than it once was because surfaces are much more uniform.  Would Ivan Lendl have more than 8 majors if the Australian Open had been on a slow hard court for his entire career and Wimbledon had been slowed down?  I think so.

However, I also think tennis has become so physically grueling, in large part due to the slower courts, that the youthful breakthrough wins one saw from Mats Wilander, Boris Becker, and Michael Chang are far less likely.  Of the current players in the new wave, only Raonic seems capable at present of making consistent second week runs in majors because he generates so many free points.  I could see Dolgopolov or Tomic pulling an upset of a top gun, but stamina becomes an issue if beating Federer in 5 sets then means playing Nadal or Djokovic.  All of these younger players are developing that physical toughness needed, but by the time it develops and Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are declining it may only leave a 2-4 year window for winning majors.  I don’t mourn for this new generation, but I do think the mountain facing them is steeper than what many previous generations faced.

Post Script – See This Poll

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