My second to most recent column revolved around Nadal’s seeming invulnerability on clay. All of the sudden, Nadal is pushed hard by Grigor Dimitrov, struggled holding a lead and closing out a match vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets. Now, his solid wins over Ferrer and Almagro in Latin America as well as hardcourt wins over Federer, Berdych and Del Potro seem a little further away. My takeaways are as follows:
Djokovic remains Nadal’s biggest threat on any surface. If Novak is playing near 2011 levels, this clay court season gets a lot more interesting. Last year, Nole went 0-3 vs. Rafa on clay. My column had Djokovic possessing a 20-35% chance of beating Nadal on clay. Monte Carlo makes me think Novak’s floor is 35% and his ceiling versus Nadal on clay in 2013 might be 50%.
A 7 month layoff could have residual impacts on Nadal. Tsonga has weapons and Dimitrov has young legs. Each pushed Nadal. These typres of matches could happen as the clay court season unfolds.
Nadal is still the favorite on clay against everyone in the world except for maybe Djokovic. Until Madrid and Rome are in the books, I will have Rafa as my favorite headed into Roland Garros. If Nole wins another head-to-head meeting, maybe Rafa would be the second most likely to win in Paris, but he is the man on clay until someone beats him multiple times. Rafa vs. Nole in the French Open quarterfinal would be as interesting as it would be terrible for fans.
Can anyone stop a prepared Nadal on clay? That is a question that has been hounding professional tennis since 2005. There are a few scenarios for how Nadal might lose a match on clay, but these scenarios become even less likely when a match moves to a best of five set format. I think for someone to dethrone Nadal on clay, he will need to be a fitness freak and fighter a la Ferrer, have a return game somewhere along the lines of Murray or Nole’s, and be able to take control of points with massive ground strokes. I don’t see that player on tour right now. The junior ranks are where we are most likely to find a physical specimen who has enough of a willingness to fight to have a chance to dethrone Nadal. I hope that we get to see a young lion push Nadal rather than see injuries lead to the close of Rafa’s clay court dictatorship.
Scenarios for a Nadal Loss During The 2013 European Clay Court Season
Don’t Count on Seeing a lot of This
Being the best player in the world on clay does not preclude one or two losses. Here are some scenarios for Nadal losing matches during this European clay court season.
Novak Djokovic has a great day. If Novak gets into enough of Rafa’s service games, even on clay, he can win matches. Odds: 20 to 35%
Del Potro or Berdych follows the Soderling blueprint. Odds: 15% for a 2 out of 3 set match and 10% or less at Roland Garros.
Federer has a day where he does not miss. Not missing on clay versus Nadal is not something we have seen from Federer. At 31, it is less likely. Odds: 2%
Ferrer or another speedy baseliner takes advantage of a health ailment a la Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2008. Odds: 10% or Less
Nadal loses after a long layoff. We saw this happen in Chile earlier this year. The problem for the tour is that Rafa’s team are not fools. He played the Latin American clay court circuit to avoid rust during the European clay court season. Even a rusty Nadal put together an impressive run in Latin America. Odds: N/A as he is not rusty
Blue Clay – Nadal hated blue clay and lost on it last year. Odds: N/A blue clay is no longer a part of the tour
A big server such as Isner or Raonic wins a match with a lot of tiebreaks. This could happen in a two out of three set scenario. It is hard for me to see Nadal lose 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 at Roland Garros. Someone would have to serve out of his mind to pull this strategy off for three sets versus Nadal. Odds: 5 to 10%
A Few Reasons for Nadal’s Clay Court Success
An aggressive game that has a high margin for error. Nadal’s shots aggressively beat up his opponents. Yet, he makes few errors. It is a nice combination that few can achieve.
Fitness and Mental Fight: Nadal will not give in, just ask Coria or Federer about 5 set matches on clay. Despite a history of injuries and knee issues, Nadal seems to have a high energy level during individual matches or tournaments. He may pay the price months later, but that fact does not help people win matches against him in the short term.
His left-handedness is an edge. Most players work their opponent’s backhand. Playing Nadal means reversing the flow of shots one hits 90% of the time. Hitting into Nadal’s forehand is a poor idea. This is especially true on clay.
Movement – Nadal not only plays with a high margin for error, but he can stay in points in which he is not dictating. This forces many players to try for even bigger shots or even more extreme angles. That only ratchets up their error totals and mental duress.
Soft Courts: Nadal loves to compete and concentrates like no other on tour. Clay courts allow for him to utilize these skills with a minimal level of impact on his knees and feet. Rafa has tendonitis and has had two stress fractures in his feet. Clay does not prevent tweaking these conditions, but it minimizes their impact allowing for his competitive spirit and preternatural focus to be more or less uninterrupted by physical distress.
Horacio Zeballos of Argentina won the biggest match of his life by defeating Rafael Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 to win in Vina del Mar, Chile. Zeballos also defeated a cast of solid clay court players to reach the final by dispatching Pablo Andujar, Albert Ramos and Carlos Berlocq in succession. Still, unless he had defeated Jim Courier, Mats Wilander and Bjorn Borg to reach the final round, Zeballos could not match the clay court achievement of defeating Rafael Nadal on clay with 3 other solid wins. The 27 year old from Argentina should treasure this victory. It was Nadal’s first loss on red clay since losing to Novak Djokovic at the 2011 installment of Rome. Zeballos is also the first left-handed player to defeat Nadal on red clay.* His lefty forehand created nice angles against Rafa, and oddly, his one-handed backhand allowed for him to change the pace and spin during rallies in a manner that right-handed players with one-handed backhands have not been able to do against Rafa with any measure of success.
No Need to Panic for Team Rafa
Rafael Nadal won the first seven sets he played after a long time away from competitive tennis. The two sets he lost were both close. Also, the lefty Zeballos’ hitting a forehand from the corner that Nadal normally pins right-handed opponents cannot be underestimated. Closing out sets, matches and tournaments can illicit some nerves from even great players. Rafa will not roar back with a tournament title, but getting four matches under his belt is a good way to reintroduce himself to the tour. Playing the Latin American swing for the first time since 2005 allows for Nadal to work these kinks out prior to Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Paris.
Nadal’s Win over Chardy was Encouraging
Jeremy Chardy entered this event with the momentum of his first Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance. Chardy has a big inside-out forehand and a decent enough serve to win games against most players. I expected Nadal to beat Chardy but by a score of something around 7-5, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-4. Instead Nadal rolled Chardy 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinal round. After Saturday’s results, I was expecting to be writing about Nadal as a force of nature on clay. Instead, a fit and feisty opponent won a tight match against Rafa.
Play Long Points Against Rafa?
With the exception of Nole winning two consecutive matches in 2011, no one has had a consistent winning approach against Rafael Nadal on clay. Obviously, some players will try to follow the JMDP, Soderling, Berdych’s approach of hitting through Nadal. It hasn’t worked often (Soderling at the 2009 French Open), but a tall player has limited options against Nadal on clay. Djokovic’s approach in 2011 was to pressure Rafa’s service game as much as possible. It is a good approach if one returns anywhere near as well as Nole, but even the world number one could not repeat those results in 2012. Maybe Rafa’s knees and other health ailments will encourage defensive players and counter-punchers to try to wear Rafa down and draw unforced errors from Nadal. If a player can keep the score close versus a favorite, scoreboard pressure can also be an asset for the underdog. It is a strategy that worked in February, but my guess is it will be less successful in June.
* Nadal did lose a match on blue clay in 2012 to the left-handed Fernando Verdasco
Why Rafael Nadal Might be the GOAT – Rafa’s claim to the GOAT title revolves around three areas of excellence. I’ll begin with clay. First, no one has dominated any surface in the manner that Nadal has dominated clay. Rafa is Borg’s equal in French Open titles, but his ownership of Monte Carlo, the Italian Open and Barcelona along with titles at the Hamburg/Madrid clay court Masters 1000 events is unreal. Rafa being so far out in front of everyone on that surface gives him a cushion to work with on other surfaces when he is compared to other players.
However, Rafa does not really need that cushion as his second attribute will attest. Rafa owns big titles on hard courts and grass courts and won his career Grand Slam much earlier in his career than Andre Agassi or Roger Federer did. Nadal won the 2008 Olympic Gold medal on a hard court. He won the 2009 Australian Open and 2010 US Open titles. Throw in multiple titles at Indian Wells and at the Canadian Open along with his runner-up finishes in New York and Melbourne, and no one can say Rafa is not a great hard court champion. On grass, Rafa’s case is even stronger. Rafa owns two Wimbledon titles as well as a title at the Queen’s Club. Rafa is a three time Wimbledon runner-up. Nadal has reached more Wimbledon championship matches than Stefan Edberg did! Rafa knows grass.
Finally, Rafael Nadal holds an 18-10 head-to-head edge over Roger Federer. A lot has been made of this fact. I think their age gap along with the surface gap has some implications here, but the numbers are there. Rafa has beaten Roger in many big matches. This means something.
Why Rafael Nadal is not the GOAT - The French Open specifically and clay court tennis in general did not gain equal footing with events on faster surfaces until the mid 1980′s. Rafael Nadal has never won a season ending title and has only reached the season ending event’s final round one time. Rafael Nadal still trails Bjorn Borg’s 11 majors, Pete Sampras’ 14 majors and Roger Federer’s 16 majors.
You Decide - Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are still moving targets as they keep adding to their career accomplishments. Consider that Federer and Nadal have combined to win seven titles in 2012 alone (and it is only May!). Rafa being younger than Roger makes it even harder to know where his career will lead. I can say with a lot of confidence that Rafa should equal and pass Bjorn Borg’s major totals. The Spaniard’s hard court wins already have Nadal ahead of Borg in my all-time lists. Will Rafa get to fourteen or sixteen majors? That is harder to predict. If his health holds up and he solves the Djokovic riddle, Nadal has a very good chance of laying claim to the title of GOAT. If Rafa’s knees go and/or he cannot beat Nole on surfaces other than clay, in my mind he’ll likely end up somewhere among the top three post-Laver players.
Nadal cements his status as the favorite for the French Open in 2012*
Nadal exercises some of his demons vs. Djokovic
Nadal once again is the sole owner of the most Super 9/Masters Series/Masters 1000 titles
Nadal most importantly wins a historically significant title for the 8th consecutive year – I do not see this ever happening again**
2012: Full of Plot Lines
2012 is shaping up to be an interesting year. Djokovic has won the only slam of 2012 as well as one of the three Masters 1000 events. Rafael Nadal just reasserted himself. Roger Federer won three consecutive tournaments. Andy Murray has hinted at some improvements under Ivan Lendl to only seemingly pull back.***
* – Nadal being the favorite heading into the French Open is not all bad news for Djokovic. Nole has a real chance to be the reigning champion at all four slams. This would be the greatest achievement in tennis history to my mind. Going into Paris as an underdog may be good for Djokovic’s stress level. See the University of Kentucky losing the SEC Tournament Final in New Orleans to only return to New Orleans a few weeks later and cut down the NCAA tournament nets.
** – Even if John Isner won 8 consecutive titles in Atalanta, I can’t see that as being on par with winning such a prestigious clay court title eight consecutive times.
*** – Murray’s initial confidence after bringing Lendl on board may have led to unrealistic expectations on the timeline of what Lendl can do for Murray. Now that the new car smell has worn off, Murray will have to work through what Lendl is asking of him. Changing dispositions and habits can and usually does take time. I think we won’t know the trajectory of Lendl’s coaching until this time in 2013 (unless they part ways before then).
As for the best possible Monte Carlo final ever, I think Novak Djokovic will win. It is not an easy pick as Nadal has won every match he has played at this prestigious event for the past eight years. Djokovic is dealing with the loss of a loved one as well. It would not surprise me to see Nadal win and maybe win easily. I think this collision of 7 straight Monte Carlo titles for Nadal with 7 straight wins by Nole over Rafa is epic in scale. I think Novak’s return of serve will be the difference.
Sorry About My Lack of Posts This Week
I had been posting picks for much smaller events last week, and yet this week no predictions? Well, it started with my wife and children being sick. It ended with me being sick the past few days.
The good news is I learned a lot more about WordPress when typing columns and such was not in the cards. There are an incredible number of great tennis sites out there and I reposted some of my favorite entries. I encourage my followers to check out their sites and follow them as well.
I will be back to more regular posts now that all of us are on the mend.
