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March 10, 2013: Indian Wells Match Picks

9 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

STADIUM 1 Start 11:00 am

[32] Mardy Fish (USA) v [Q] Bobby Reynolds (USA)

[3] Andy Murray (GBR) v Evgeny Donskoy (RUS)

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v Fabio Fognini (ITA) – This should be entertaining, but Nole should also roll.

[WC] James Blake (USA) v [8] Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) - An upset is possible here, but only if Tsonga is off of his game.

STADIUM 2 Start 11:00 am

[12] Marin Cilic (CRO) v Albert Ramos (ESP) – Cilic has made a nice return to the top 20 after his promising 2009 and early 2010.  Ramos is capable of the upset though as Cilic can throw in a bad match from time to time.

Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v [7] Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) – The 2009 World Tour Final  championship match revisited.  JMDP should advance.

[23] Sam Querrey (USA) v [Q] Ivo Karlovic (CRO) – Expect tie-breaks to be played

STADIUM 3 Start 11:00 am

Marinko Matosevic (AUS) v [14] Juan Monaco (ARG) - Monaco has had a quiet 2013.

[11] Nicolas Almagro (ESP) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP) – After his Australian Open collapse, it is possible that Almagro is going to struggle.

[Q] Philipp Petzschner (GER) v [16] Kei Nishikori (JPN) – My first upset pick.

COURT 7 Start 11:00 am

[22] Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Carlos Berlocq (ARG) – Berlocq is match tough after the Latin American swing of the tour.

Pablo Andujar (ESP) v [19] Tommy Haas (GER) – A 50-50 match in my mind.  Haas gets the nod due to the surface, but the old man of the tour should not take Andujar lightly.

[Q] Matthew Ebden (AUS) v [31] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) – Is he due for a breakthrough or not?

COURT 8 Start 11:00 am

[25] Jeremy Chardy (FRA) v Bjorn Phau (GER) – Chardy should beat the diminutive veteran.

Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) v [26] Martin Klizan (SVK)

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Tennis 2013 Power Ranking: Dubai and Acapulco

3 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #3

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, and his strong showing in Dubai only underscores that point.

2.  Andy Murray - 2013 has brought Andy a Grand Slam runner-up finish and a 250 point title.  Still, it will be nice to see him in action again.

3.  Rafael Nadal - Rafa’s back-to-back titles coupled with Federer’s thus far shaky 2013 have him moving up the power ranking.   Change since last ranking +2

4.  Roger Federer – Roger does not seem like himself to this point in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

5.  David Ferrer – His loss to Rafa at Acapulco was like a continuation of his 2012 Roland Garros beating.  On the bright side, Ferrer reached two consecutive finals and won his first title of the year.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Tomas Berdych - A runner-up finish in Dubai has the Czech moving toward the top 5.  Change since last ranking +2

7.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -1 

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Juan Martin del Potro – He won Rotterdam and reached the semis at Dubai.  Nole seems to be his nemesis. Change since last ranking – unranked  

10.  Marin Cilic - He has had a nice 2013.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Movers – Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych +2

Dropped Out – Jeremy Chardy and Horacio Zeballos

Entered the Rankings – Juan Martin del Potro and Marin Cilic 

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Tennis Power Rankings 2013: Chile and Beyond

11 Feb

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #2 

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is still in control.

2.  Andy Murray - He’s posted a 19-2 match record at the 3 most recent Grand Slam events.

3.  Roger Federer – Will Rotterdam move Federer into a tie for career titles with John McEnroe?

4.  David Ferrer – Horacio Zeballos preserved Ferrer’s #4 ranking.

5.  Rafael Nadal – A runner-up finish in his first event back on tour has Nadal in a holding pattern.  He did not look rusty, but he lost for only the 5th time in a clay court final.

6.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Change since last ranking +2

7.  Tomas Berdych – He did nothing wrong, but the big man had to make room for Gasquet.  Change since last ranking – 1

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – See #7.  Change since last ranking – 1 

9.  Horacio Zeballos - Anyone who beats Nadal in a clay court final gets some love.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

10.  Jeremy Chardy – His quarterfinal showing in Melbourne and semifinal in Chile land him in the top 10, but I would not bank on Chardy or Zeballos staying in my top 10 for long.  Marin Cilic could easily occupy the 9 0r 10 slot for this ranking.

Biggest Mover – Richard Gasquet +2

Dropped Out – Juan Martin del Potro

Entered the Rankings – Horacio Zeballos 

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First Power Ranking of 2013

29 Jan

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #1 

Post Australian Open Ranking

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole won the Australian Open in convincing style to pick up where he left off in my rankings.

2.  Andy Murray – He is playing quite well, just not quite well enough to have won the first major of the year.  Change since last ranking +1

3.  Roger Federer – The semifinal round down under has been a tough one for Roger.  He’s lost in that spot to Marat Safin in 2005, to Djokovic in 2008 and 2011, to Nadal in 2012 and to Andy Murray in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  David Ferrer – He’s doing all of the right things, but Ferrer was outclassed in the Australian Open semifinal.

5.  Rafael Nadal – The biggest x-factor for the 2013 season.  He could be pushing Djokovic for tour supremacy or he could be slow to work his way back into form.

6.  Tomas Berdych – The big man might have had a chance after Nole went 5 sets with Wawrinka, but a 4 set loss was his reward.

7.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – A 5 set quarterfinal loss leaves Tsonga looking to move up in 2013.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

8.  Richard Gasquet – He won a tune-up for the Australian Open and reached the round of 16 down under.  Change since last ranking +1

9.  Juan Martin del Potro – Not a great start to 2013 for JMDP.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Jeremy Chardy – His quarterfinal showing in Melbourne helps him to break into the top 10.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro -2 

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic and Radek Stepanek

Entered the Rankings – Jeremy Chardy and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

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Who is the Best Australian Open Champion? POLL

28 Jan

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Novak’s Reign

27 Jan

Owning an Event

For a player to pile up a lot of major title, he tends to need to own one event.  Jimmy Connors won 5 US Open titles, Bjorn Borg won 6 French Open titles and 5 Wimbledon titles, Andre Agassi won 4 Australian Open titles, Pete Sampras won 7 Wimbledon and 5 US Open titles, Roger Federer has 7 Wimbledon titles, 5 US Open titles, and 4 Australian Open titles, Rafael Nadal has 7 French Open titles.  Novak Djokovic has now joined Agassi and Federer with 4 Australian Open titles.

The surface in Melbourne so perfectly matches Novak’s game that it is conceivable that he will win several more.  Andy Murray is the only other player who benefits nearly as much from the conditions at Rod Laver Arena.  Murray has posted a 23-4 record over the past 4 Australian Opens.  Djokovic has been the man to eliminate Murray in 3 consecutive years.  Djokovic has a great chance to match or surpass Agassi and Connors’ career totals of 8 major titles.  If he is to get to 10 majors or more, my guess is that at least 6 titles will have to come in Melbourne.  Regardless of the future, it is clear that Novak Djokovic clearly owns the Australin Open right now.

Andy Murray is #2

The computers will say otherwise, but Andy Murray is currently the second best player in the world.  So long as this loss does not drag him down, Murray should be Djokovic’s most compelling rival in 2013.  I hope coach Lendl can keep Murray moving forward.  After all, Murray’s first serve and variety might be more well received at Wimbledon and the US Open than they were in Melbourne.  The difficult thing for Murray fans to consider is just how close he came to being up one set and one break early in the second set.

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Australian Open Final Prediction Murray vs. Djokovic

26 Jan

2013 Australian Open Men’s Final

#3 Andy Murray vs. #1 Novak Djokovic

We have a lot of data to draw upon for this match.  In 2012 alone the two met seven times.  Novak Djokovic defeated Andy Murray in Melbourne, Miami, Shanghai and London.  Andy Murray defeated Novak Djokovic in Dubai, at the Olympic Games, and in New York.  Novak Djokovic is perfectly suited for the courts in Melbourne.  His win in 2008 was a sign of things to come.  The ease with which he won in 2011 and the grit he showed in fending off Murray and Nadal in back-to-back five set matches in 2012 all speak to how hard it is to dethrone Nole.  In 2013, Nole has shown aspects of what led to both his 2011 and 2012 titles.  Djokovic humbled world #4 David Ferrer and also gritted his way past Stanislas Wawrinka.  On paper, Djokovic should win this match.  He bested Murray in their two most recent matches, he bested Murray in 2011 and 2012 at the Australian Open, he had an extra day of rest, and he is playing on a court that is ideal for his game.

Will Novak win?  That is a different question than the on paper analysis.  Prior to the tournament starting, Andy Murray was the only player in the draw who I would give a 40% chance of beating Nole.  After winning five straight set matches and finally beating Roger Federer at a Grand Slam (and overcoming some 4th set failures), I give Andy Murray a 45% chance of winning this match on paper.  Both men return exceptionally well.  This surface favors returners more than the hard courts at the US Open do.  Recently, Murray’s first serve has been a bit of a bigger weapon than Nole’s, but Nole’s second serve is more historically solid than Murray’s.

My head says that Djokovic wins in 4 or 5 sets.  My gut says that Murray pulls of the upset in 4 sets.  I hope that the final is of the same quality as their 2012 Australian Open semifinal.

My Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. Andy Murray 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6

 

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Who Will Win Murray or Djokovic? (POLL)

25 Jan

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Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs. David Ferrer Pick

23 Jan

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Singles – Semifinal

[1] N Djokovic (SRB) v [4] D Ferrer (ESP)

The three-time champion, two-time defending champion and world number one enters this semifinal as a heavy favorite.  As well as Ferrer has played in the past 12-15 months, this is a mismatch on paper.  Ferrer did manage to win a set versus Djokovic in the 2012 US Open semifinal round during heavy wind.  Nole’s ability to take the ball early means that he will make/let Ferrer run a lot.  Ferrer has a great return game, but so does Nole.  As a matter of fact, Djokovic likely has a better return game than Ferrer.  Djokovic also has a better serve than Ferrer.  Both guys are going to have to work to hold, but Djokovic has a comparative advantage here.  Djokovic has great defensive skills that will allow him to steal a few points when Ferrer is controlling court position.  However, Djokovic is going to be making Ferrer make use of his sublime defensive skills for most of the match.  I think sheer willpower may earn Ferrer a set, but Djokovic will win in three or four sets.  Both men are going to work hard on court as Ferrer will not go quietly.

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Australian Open Day 9 Men’s Picks

21 Jan

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinals

David Ferrer (4) vs. Nicolas Almagro (10) – David Ferrer could reach his 3rd slam semifinal in the past 52 weeks.  He led the tour with 7 titles in 2012.  He also picked up his first 1000 series title after adding French and US Open semifinal runs to his career achievements.  Ferrer is 12-0 vs. Almagro.  12-0!  Almagro has the shots to win this match, but consistency, fitness and confidence should take Ferrer to the Final Four.  If Almagro does win, he can dust of Vitas’ old line and say, “No one beats Almagro 13 times in a row!”

Novak Djokovic (1)  vs. Tomas Berdych (5) – Berdych’s biggest career wins came at the 2010 Wimbledon championships where he beat Roger Federer in the quarterfinal round and Novak Djokovic in the semifinal round.  Berdych can win a big match versus Djokovic.  Berdych also helpd the Czech Republic win the 2012 Davis Cup.  Djokovic just played a draining 5 hour match.  It all sounds like a good blueprint for an upset.  I am not buying though.  Berdych does have the ability to hit through the court on any surface, but this surface is ideally suited to Djokovic’s game.  Novak recovered from a brutal semifinal versus Andy Murray to win the most brutal match I have ever seen versus Nadal in last year’s Australian Open final.  Stanislas Wawrinka does not play the grinding style of Murray.  Novak should be fresh enough to win and advance.

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