Archive | Pete Sampras RSS feed for this section

My Problem with the Federer Post Mortems

17 May

My Starting Point

I will put my bias out there and state that Roger Federer has been all-time my favorite tennis player to watch since 2003.  I like his game, his balance, his shot making etc.  I also will bluntly say that Roger is not playing near his career best 2006 level, or his 2004-2007 level, or his 2009 level and to this point not near his 2012 level.  Roger has been off in some tournaments this season.  Close losses to Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych are expected of a 31 year old.  Some of his other stumbles have been uncharacteristic.  Add in a reduced schedule and suddenly a tennis crisis emerges.

Overreaction Central

Roger Federer lost as defending champion in Madrid after skipping Monte Carlo and Miami.  Peter Bodo among others pronounced that Federer was slipping and that even his safe haven of grass might come under assault.  In reality, Federer has lost Halle finals to Lleyton Hewitt and Tommy Haas in recent years.  He lost a two set lead to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Wimbledon in 2011.  He lost in straight sets to Andy Murray in the Olympic Gold Medal round in 2012.  All of this happened on grass.  Roger is not running a grass court streak like he had from 2003-Wimbledon 2008.  Federer might lose a few matches on grass in 2013 and that does not mean he is finished anymore than his 2011 loss to Tsonga ended his hopes of winning Wimbledon again.

Similarly, if Roger has a nice event in Rome, it does not mean he is back to his 2009 clay court form.  Today, Roger Federer beat Gilles Simon on clay.  Federer was once 0-2 in his career matches vs. Simon.  He wins 6-1, 6-2 on his worst surface against a man who has troubled him.  Is Federer back (or is this a silly question) after being given last rites on his flight out of Madrid?  One match or one event is just not smart for judging a veteran and legend of the game.  Short term analysis will lead to Federer looking like a yo-yo.

Where Things Stand

 The fact is that Roger Federer is 31 years old.  He undoubtedly has nagging injuries like all players on tour, but his recovery time is likely slowing from what it once was.  He is still ranked in the top 4, but to this point in 2013 is playing as though he is roughly the 6th best player on tour.  Tommy Hass has won two titles in the past 52 weeks, upset the world number one, and made a serious run at a title in Miami.  Federer is four years younger than Haas.  Roger Federer is scheduling himself as though he is not terribly concerned about his ranking.  This may be a mistake as his 2012 form seemed to benefit from  playing with greater frequency than he had in 2010 or 2011.  Then again the benefit of being ranked in the top four only materializes if the other three players do the same.  Federer learned that Nadal is just as deadly in the quarterfinal round as he is during the final weekend of an event.

Nevertheless, Federer seems to be aiming toward being physically at his best heading into the biggest prizes in tennis.  This may or may not result in an 18th Grand Slam title, but I would not doubt the method too much.  Roger Federer is not the force of nature that he once was on tour.  He is still a player capable of winning big matches.  Federer will need circumstances to break his way more than he once did, but so long as his hunger to win big titles is still there he will be relevant in 2013.  His coach Paul Annacone saw Pete Sampras win Wimbledon in 2000 when his draw opened up enough to reach a championship match on a bad leg.*  Sampras also won the 2002 US Open as the 17th seed.  A lot had to go right for Sampras to win those two events, but he was hungry enough to take advantage of the opportunities that did eventually present themselves.  Undoubtedly, Annacone is preaching the same message to Federer who is not yet taking on water to the degree that Sampras was in 2002.  With Nole and Nadal playing so well, it is not as easy to see a draw breaking wide open for Federer, but to say eulogize his career is just giving into sensationalism.

* Gimelstob, Bjorkman, Gambill and Voltchkov were not a murderers row of opponents.

** This sense of overreaction is not limited to Federer.  Nole left Dubai with some wondering if he would duplicate his record setting start to 2011 and post his best year ever.  After Indian Wells and Miami, some felt Djokovic looked worn out.  He then wins Monte Carlo by beating Nadal and a calendar Grand Slam is discussed.  Then he loses to Dimitrov in Madrid.  Is Nole clearly #1 or slipping?  Hyperbole is the name of the game for analysts these days.

Tags: , , , ,

Who Needs a 5th Major?

26 Mar

Four or Five or?

The Indian Wells-Miami section of the tour is a great stretch for tennis fans.  Most of the top players on the ATP and WTA play both events and great matches abound.  It also leads to talk of a “Fifth Major” status for one or the other event.  This talk is not limited to these two locales.  Many people claim the Italian Open or Masters Roma is the fifth major.  During Olympic years, the winner of the gold medal is often discussed as having won the fifth most important event of the year.  What about the World Tour Finals/Masters Cup/ATP World Championships/Masters held at the end of each season?  Is it the fifth most important tournament?  Doesn’t BNP Paribas, who now sponsors Indian Wells, also sponsor and have longer ties with the Bercy in the fall?  Is it then the fifth major?

Does Monte Carlo get Consideration or is it a Masters Emeritus?

Hypothetical Rules for a Permanent 5th Major Designation

  1. The World Tour Finals Despite Offering the Most Computer Points Outside of the Slams is a Different Animal so the WTF is not a Major 
  2. During Olympic Years – The Gold Medalist Holds the 5th Major
  3. During Non-Olympic Years the Tournament with the Best Draw, Best Amenities and Highest Prize Money is the 5th Major
  4. Ignore the Defunct Volvo International and WCT Finals in Dallas Having Once Been Prestigious
  5. Ignore the Growth of Tennis in Asia Despite China having 5th Major Potential

More Trouble than it is Worth

I’d rather listen to “A Fifth of Beethoven” than figure out what is the 5th most important tournament.  The Grand Slams have some normative status.  If a player, like the young Agassi, skipped Wimbledon for several years, it would still be Wimbledon.    Carlos Moya won the Masters Roma title in 2004 and won Masters Cincinnati in 2002.  Moya likely places his Rome title just below his 1998 Roland Garros title and Spain’s 2004 Davis Cup win.  Andy Roddick would likely value his Masters Miami, Canada and Cincinnati titles more than any clay court title outside of the French Open.  Views on the most important titles shift a great deal depending upon a player’s surface preference.

For better or worse, all four Grand Slams have importance that is a given at least since Pete Sampras made breaking Roy Emmerson’s record a public goal.   It is great that Indian Wells is voted as a player favorite venue right now, but that does not confer upon it an added quality to my mind.  It is a great tournament and should just work at staying that way.  Indianapolis was praised in John Feinstein’s book Hard Courts that chronicled the tour in 1990.*  Indianapolis was sponsored by RCA at that time, and players loved the event due to having access to virtual reality and other audio visual prototypes that RCA was developing.  Less than 25 years later, the Indianapolis Tennis Center is now gone, as in plowed under, and a basketball arena sits in its place.  So long as Indian Wells and Key Biscayne/Miami keep holding great tennis events and don’t get plowed under, I will be happy.

Better Days for Tennis in Indianapolis

* – Feinstein referred to Key Biscayne/Miami as the 5th major in 1990.  Therefore if  Indian Wells is now the 5th major, it stands to reason that this title is a short term distinction at best.

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Tennis Impersonations: A History

24 Dec


Alpha?

Omega?

The recent controversy about Caroline Wozniacki’s impersonation of Serena Williams got me thinking about the history of impersonating a player’s ticks or idiosyncrasies.  My mind initially thought that  Jonas Bjorkman was the progenitor of this fad.  His rain delay US Open fodder of lighthearted imitations did indeed pave the way to Djokovic’s 2007 US Open impersonation tour.   However, a more contentious and longer history came into my mind the more I thought about the topic.  It is doubtful that Rod Laver ever impersonated John Newcombe, but since the late 1980′s impersonations have popped up and generally engendered bad feelings.

1988 – Boris Becker Imitates and Gets Imitated by Pat Cash

Boris Becker won Wimbledon in 1985 and 1986.  Pat Cash was the defending champion having claimed the title in 1987.  Their 1988 quarterfinal round battle lived up to the hype, but not because of the tennis.  Becker won the match routinely 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.  Here is how Mitch Album described the memorable events on June 30, 1988:

Well. Let us take you to the second set Wednesday: Becker was leading, 4-1, and Cash came charging, hit a volley winner — and fell over the net.

Fell over the net? Yes. And Becker got so excited, he somersaulted over the net as well. Wheee. Are we having fun, or what? Now we had two guys on the wrong side. Becker was kidding. He offered his hand. Cash was serious. He offered his thoughts.

“What did he say?” someone asked Becker.

“I don’t think I should repeat it,” Becker said. “He taught me some new words in English.”

And the girls screamed. Cash wigs out after losing

But wait. Before you castigate Cash for being a poor sport, let us take you now to the post-game press conference — after Becker had humbled Cash in two hours and 17 minutes. Everyone figured the moody, broody Australian wouldn’t show, right? He had just lost his title.

But here he came, wearing a red punk-rock wig, all spikes and points. The kind that makes you look like Son of Porcupine.

1988 – Agassi Ticks off Connors and McEnroe Simultaneously

Andre Agassi’s first US Open tilt with Jimmy Connors was seen as a passing of the torch as Agassi would assume the mantle as the top US born player.  John McEnroe was watching as well.  At some point during the match, Agassi imitated McEnroe’s serving motion, an act that infuriated Johnny Mac.  Agassi’s post-match comments angered Connors into making a biting paternity joke.  Agassi did win the match 6-2, 7-6, 6-1.

1989 – Boris Becker gets Imitated by McEnroe

Boris Becker defeated John McEnroe in an epic Davis Cup encounter in Hartford, Connecticut in 1987 4-6, 15-13, 8-10, 6-2, 6-2.  Even before that match, McEnroe and Becker had exchanged tense words and stares dating back to their first match.  McEnroe’s autobiography You Cannot Be Serious describes their relationship as generally being that of friendly rivals.  At times, tensions did boil over.  McEnroe saw fit to challenge perceived gamesmanship on Becker’s part during their semifinal encounter at the 1989 Paris Indoor. McEnroe loudly coughed in response to Boris Becker’s characteristic cough.  At a changeover, Becker asked for compassion, and McEnroe retorted that Becker had been sick since 1985.  McEnroe calling Becker out for gamesmanship in this manner did not endear him to the crowd and helped inspire Becker to a 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 victory.  McEnroe even recounted that this event led to a post-match argument with his first wife.

1998 – Andre Agassi Mocks Karol Kucera

Karol Kucera had a great season in 1998.  He reached an Australian Open semifinal and a US open quarterfinal.  Along the way, Kucera dispatched of Andre Agassi in the 1998 US Open round of 16 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 1-6, 6-3.  Kucera’s return of serve and ability to change the pace and direction of the ball during a rally mystified Agassi.  Head games were the only thing that made this match close.  Agassi, irritated by either the scoreline or Kucera’s frequently errant service toss, began to imitate a Kucera.  Agassi timidly approached the service line and mockingly attempted to toss the ball.  Beyond that, Agassi hit moonballs to his upstart opponent.  These tactics unnerved Kucera and helped the match extend to 5 sets.  Personally, this is the lowest moment of tennis imitations that I can remember.  Agassi was simply trying to throw his opponent off through mockery.

The Sampras-Agassi Hit for Haiti Debacle

The first Hit or Haiti was an unqualified success.  Major world athletes threw together an enjoyable charity event without the meddling hands of sponsors and agents.  It was a feel good event.  When Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi were added to the mix for a sequel charity doubles match, things looked great, right?  Who would not want to see all-court maestro’s Roger Federer and Pete Sampras take on two men who revolutionized backcourt tennis in Andre Agassi and Rafael Nadal?  It did not live up to the hype.

“That aint personal.” (?)

Sampras and Agassi already had some bad blood from Agassi’s recently published autobiography Open.  Agassi did not take Sampras’ imitation well and threw out a tasteless imitation implying that Pete is cheap.  Sampras went head hunting, and Agassi still pressed his claim of Sampras’ stinginess.

Lessons?

Boris Becker attempted a funny net dive when playing Pat Cash and was repaid by Cash wearing an ugly red wig?!?!  John McEnroe’s impersonation of Becker helped to inspire his opponent to victory and started an argument with his then wife.  Andre Agassi angered or incited John McEnroe and Karol Kucera with impersonations.  Agassi responded badly to Pete Sampras impersonating him.  This spiraled to a tit for tat impersonation that managed to ruin a fundraiser for a natural disaster.  Caroline Wozniacki, as well as Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic, have made questionable imitations of Serena Williams’ body-type.

My advice is that unless an impersonation serves a purpose and is obviously approved of by the player being mimicked (a la Djokovic’s take on Guga) to not do imitations.  My main reason for saying this is not that charitable events or marriages might be threatened.  My advice for not doing imitations stems from the fact that impersonations have been done to death and are not terribly comical (Gustavo Djokovic aside).  If comedy is not funny, what is it?

The Exception that Proves the Rule? (No Impersonations Unless They are This Funny?)

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Sampras Turns 41 and Federer Turns 31

13 Aug

Familiar Faces

Sampras ushered in a new age in 1990

By some luck for tennis junkies, Pete Sampras was born on August 12, 1971 and Roger Federer was born on August 8, 1981.  The two men are almost exactly 10 years apart in age.  Tennis fans waited from Borg’s retirement to Sampras’ ascendency to see a player win over 10 slams in his career.  From 1990 to present, Sampras, Federer and Nadal have all broken the 10 major count. I’m just going to say that we are fortunate to be witnessing this level of excellence.

This site contains the best breakdown of data comparing the two players.  I must emphasize again check out this site for the quantitative comparison of tennis’ two most decorated Grand Slam champions.  Beyond Grand Slam excellence, each man has claims to fame in terms of the ranking system and World Tour Finals.  Federer recently passed Sampras for the most total weeks ranked #1, but Sampras still holds the record for 6 calendar years finished at #1.  Roger holds 6 World Tour Finals crowns, but Sampras never got to play two out of three set championship matches for the year end event so I’d say Federer’s 6 are roughly equal to Sampras and Ivan Lendl’s 5 year end titles.*

Consider the Following

1.  Of the previous 20 Wimbledon Championships, only 5 did not include either Sampras or Federer as one of the finalists.  Only 6 did not conclude with either Sampras or Federer as champion.

2.   Pete Sampras finished #1 from 1993-1998 and Roger Federer finished #1 from 2004-2007 & 2009.  11 of the past 19 years have had one of the two finish the year ranked #1.  Federer could make it a 60% mark for the tandem if he finishes 2012 at #1.

3.  Pete Sampras and Roger Federer are part of a three way tie for the most Wimbledon crowns ever (Open Era and pre-Open Era) and are part of a 3 way tie for the most US Open titles of the Open Era.

4.  The two combined to contest 42 Grand Slam finals from the US Open 1990 – Present.  They won 31 of these 42 Grand Slam finals.

5.  They shared some common opponents (i.e. Lleyton Hewitt vs Sampras at the 2000 and 2001 US Opens and Lleyton Hewitt vs. Federer at the 2004 and 2005 US Opens), but they only played one time on tour. Roger Federer d. Pete Sampras at Wimbledon 2001 in the round of 16 7-6, 5-7, 6-4, 6-7, 7-5.

A funny LOTR spoof

Comparing Their Years

If Pete Sampras’ career in 1990 was at the same point as Roger Federer’s in 2000, then it is pretty easy to see who had the better year at the same point in his respective career.

  • Sampras would have the early edge as his 1990, 1991, 1992 and 1993 were all better years than Federer 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003.
  • Federer’s 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 would all to my mind be better than Sampras’ 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999  (in many cases by saying better I might as well be saying that winning $2 million is better than winning $1 million.  Both are pretty outstanding).
  • Sampras in 2000 won Wimbledon and was runner-up at the US Open.  I would rank that slightly ahead of Roger’s 2010 wins in Australia and the World Tour Finals.
  • Federer’s 2011 and 2012 are ahead of Pete’s 2001 and 2002.  Since Pete did not play past 2002, anything Roger does beyond this point will also be ahead of what Pete did.  That leaves Roger with 8 superior head-to-head years and Sampras with 5 superior head-to-head years (or you could just look at this graph to compare the quality of their years on tour).

* – In a 2 out of 3 set format Roger would have won the 2005 final he lost to Nalbandian.  Roger only had to go 2 out of 3 sets to win the 2010 and 2011 World Tour Finals as well as a weather shortened final in 2004.

Tags: , , ,

Olympic Tennis Review: 1992 The Women Delivered & The Men Did Not

21 Jul

The 1988 Olympic Games brought tennis back as a medal sport.  Steffi Graf completed a “Golden Slam” in 1988, and the overall success of the tennis events brought about a great deal of excitement for the 1992 games.  These games were held in Barcelona, Spain so Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario looked to be a major factor.  The 1992 Olympics were held between Wimbledon and the US Open so players were looking at transitioning from clay to grass to clay to hard courts from June – early September.  Surface speeds were not as uniform then as they are today so this was not n easy proposition.

The Women’s Event: Great Results

Steffi Graf had been runner-up at the 1992 French Open and had won the 1992 Wimbledon championships in a decisive fashion over Monica Seles.  Graf was an Olympic veteran who won gold in singles and bronze in doubles in 1988 and who won the singles demonstration event at the 1984 games.  Seles could not play due to citizenship issues.  Sanchez-Vicario won the French Open in 1989 upsetting Graf in the final.  She also beat Graf in the 1991 French Open semifinal round and lost a tight 3 set affair at the 1992 French Open to Graf.  On clay and in Arantxa’s backyard, it looked to be an event with two clear favorites.

The tournament did not work out quite as planned, but there was drama to end the event.  Jennifer Capriati beat Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in the semifinal round to set up a gold medal match with Steffi Graf.  Capriati pulled yet another upset with a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Graf who would add a silver to the gold and bronze medals she won in 1988.  Mary Joe Fernandez and Sanchez-Vicario each received bronze medals.  The Spanish fans had to be happy that Arantxa won a second medal in doubles by claiming silver with Conchita Martinez while Mary Joe Fernandez and Gigi Fernandez claimed the gold medal in doubles.

The Men’s Event: Marc Rosset? Jordi Arrese?

Jim Courier won the 1991 and 1992 French Open and looked forward to the 1992 Olympic games being played on clay.  Courier and Pete Sampras won the Italian Open as a doubles tandem early in their careers and the US fielded a team of the #1 and #3 singles players in the world for the doubles event.  Jim Courier bragged that he would stay in the Olympic Village.  The US men’s team that boasted Courier, Sampras and 1989 French Open champion Michael Chang was even compared to the 1992 USA Basketball Dream Team(!).  World #2 Stefan Edberg was in the singles and doubles events as well.  Germany fielded Boris Becker and Michael Stich for singles and doubles.  This was billed by many as the tennis event of the year.  Someone needed to clue the top seeds in to this idea.

Boris Becker, who expressed similar sentiments to those of Jim Courier prior to the 1988 games, ominously said in 1992 something along the lines that he was just looking forward to getting coffee with non-tennis athletes.  Courier decided he did not like the Olympic dorms after all (see below for more).  Stich complained that the courts were rigged to favor Spanish players.  Courier was beaten by Marc Rosset in the round of 16.  Edberg, Sampras, Stich, Chang and Becker all also lost prior to the medal rounds.  Goran Ivanisevic did win bronze medals in singles and doubles with Goran Prpic.  Boris Becker took a short enough coffee break to win the gold in doubles with Michael Stich.  Still, Marc Rosset vs. Jordi Arrese for the gold medal did not exactly project that the best of the best was standing on the medal stand to end the event.

Final Verdict – Men’s Olympic Tennis Took a Step Back

The 1992 games having all matches be 3 out of 5 set affairs on slow clay coming on the heels of Wimbledon and interfering with preparation for the US Open set up an incredibly weak men’s field for the 1996 games.  Jim Courier mentioned that he was fatigued following his four set 1992 US Open quarterfinal victory over Andre Agassi.  He explained that the fatigue was a result of not properly being prepared for the US Open because of the Olympic games.  Women’s tennis continued to place elite players on the medal stands, but by 1996 the prevailing belief on the ATP tour was that the Olympic games hindered Grand Slam prospects.

Post Script – Pete Sampras Remembers the 1992 Olympics

From The Tennis Space (tennisspace.com)

What are your own Olympic memories from the Barcelona Games in 1992? “My memory of 1992, I walked into the Olympic village, I had a cot, and it was 95 degrees. I saw Jim Courier, who was literally two feet away from me in another cot and I said, ‘You know, I might go to the hotel’. So that started off things. It is obviously a very big event, a lot of people, I enjoyed my time there. I didn’t have a chance to see any other events. I lost in one of the early rounds in a tough match. It was a good experience. Tennis, to me, in the Olympics, in my time growing up, it was an exhibition

Tags: , , ,

Who is the Greatest Male Grass Court Player of the Open Era? (POLL)

9 Jul

Martina Navratilova seems to have locked up the female honor here.  Consider the following cases before voting and of course comment below.

  • Bjorn Borg – 5 consecutive Wimbledon titles, 1 Wimbledon runner-up finish, 6 consecutive Wimbledon final rounds reached, 2 Wimbledon quarterfinal finishes
  • Pete Sampras – 7 Wimbledon titles, 7-0 in Wimbledon finals, 1 Wimbledon semifinal finish, 1 Wimbledon quarterfinal finish, 2 Queen’s Club titles, 2 Queen’s Club runner-up finishes
  • Roger Federer – 7 Wimbledon titles, 5 consecutive titles, 6 consecutive Wimbledon final rounds reached, 1 Wimbledon runner-up finish, 3 Wimbledon quarterfinal finishes, 5 Halle titles, 2 Halle runner-up finishes

Does Pete’s 7-0 record out pace Roger’s slightly deeper run on grass?  Does Borg’s success on grass despite not being an all-court player or serve an volley player boost him to the lead?  Are Roger’s 12 titles on grass too much to overcome?

Tags: , , , , ,

What was the Biggest Wimbledon Upset? POLL

1 Jul

Tags: , , , ,

Tennis History: Nadal and Sharapova

14 Jun

A Trip Inside my Unofficial Historical Tennis Rankings

The 2012 French Open is in the books.  Sadly, the quick transition to grass rarely allows for the full impact of this event to be appreciated until later in the year.  Still, Rafael Nadal and Maria Sharapova made a great deal of history.  Here is a quick look at what I think each player’s win meant to each player’s legacy.

Rafael Nadal is At Worst the 3rd Most Decorated Post-Laver Champion

*

Certainly Nadal can be reasonably argued to be ahead of Pete Sampras and Roger Federer in terms of his legacy.  I think one can reasonably argue that Sampras and Federer are ahead of Nadal’s legacy.  I do not think Bjorn Borg is still in this mix.  I already felt Nadal was ahead of Borg due to his 2009 Australian Open title, 2010 US Open title and 2008 Olympic Gold Medal victories all being achieved on hard courts.  Borg did reach 6 consecutive Wimbledon final matches and did win 5 consecutive Wimbledon titles.  Rafa has won 2 Wimbledon titles, been a Wimbledon runner-up 3 times and won the 2008 Queen’s Club title.  Rafa is behind Borg in terms of grass court accomplishments, but he is distinctly ahead on clay and quite far ahead on hard courts.  Admittedly, more hard court opportunities exist today, but I would argue that Nadal’s tennis legacy is now ahead of Borg’s.

Beyond that, Nadal joins Pete Sampras as the only male players of the Open Era to win the same major 7 times.  Nadal’s clay court dominance surpasses’ Sampras’ mastery of grass due to Sampras losing matches at Wimbledon to Goran Ivanisevic and Richard Krajicek during his prime as well as losses at various Queen’s Club outings.  Nadal has owned Paris, Rome, Monte Carlo and Barcelona.

Maria Sharapova Wins a Career Grand Slam

*

The career Grand Slam is slightly more common in women’s tennis than in men’s, but Sharapova winning all 4 majors in her career is big for her legacy.  Her comeback from being ranked outside of the top 100 is more impressive to me than Agassi’s comeback from his 1997 implosion because falling out of the top 100 in the women’s game is harder to do.  Can she win at the rate Agassi did from 1999-2005?  Who knows, but the act of coming back to number 1 after such a long break is a testament to hard work.  Maria’s career slam places her legacy ahead of players such as Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario, Kim Clijsters, and Martina Hingis.  Sharapova is in the mix of the best players in the Post-Graf-Seles Era behind Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Justine Henin.  I think Maria could reasonably pass Venus and Justine’s legacies.  It just depends on how long she plays and how healthy she remains.

* We also find out what Fred Stolle is doing these days

Tags: , , ,

Roland Garros 2012 Men’s Semifinal Predictions

7 Jun

1 Novak Djokovic vs. 3 Roger Federer

I don’t think either man has played near his A level during this event.  To me, that means the player who is most likely to raise his game is the player who will win.  Novak Djokovic is under pressure attempting to complete the Nole Slam.  Roger Federer twice reached the French Open final when holding the other 3 slams.  Rafael Nadal lost in the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinal round while holding the other 3 slams.  Pete Sampras lost in the 1994 French Open quarterfinal round when holding the other 3 slams.  This would be the greatest single achievement in men’s tennis history given the radical surface differences that have existed since 1978 and the increasingly physical nature of professional tennis.  The fact that  Roger beat Novak at this stage of the French Open last year means Novak could lose this match.  I think this takes some pressure off of the Serb.  My conclusion is Novak will play with less pressure and hence play well enough to advance.

Djokovic should advance

My Pick – Novak Djokovic in 4 Sets

2 Rafael Nadal vs. 6 David Ferrer

Rafael Nadal’s complete dominance in Paris makes this section shorter than it should be.  David Ferrer deserves great credit for preventing Andy Murray from reaching his 6th consecutive Grand Slam semifinal.  Ferrer is a great clay court player who deserves to play in the final weekend of the French Open.  Throw in Ferrer and Federer each being 30 years old, and my 36 year old self is happy to think that age does not preclude great tennis.  Ferrer played Rafa tough in Barcelona.  Still, Rafa is almost certain to advance in this match.  Both men are fit and compete like few in tennis have.  Ferrer just does not have enough weapons to win this match.  When Ferrer was close versus Rafa, like he was in Barcelona, he also tightened up mentally.

Ferrer’s run likely ends

My Pick – Rafael Nadal in 3 Sets

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Men Who Stare at Tennis GOATS Part 5 – The Usual Suspects: Rafael Nadal

21 May

Part 1 Laid out Key Questions

Part 2 Looked at Bjorn Borg’s Credentials and the Difficulties of the GOAT Debate

Part 3 Looked at Pete Sampras’ Credentials

Part 4 Looked at Roger Federer’s Credentials

Rafael Nadal

Why Rafael Nadal Might be the GOAT – Rafa’s claim to the GOAT title revolves around three areas of excellence.  I’ll begin with clay.  First, no one has dominated any surface in the manner that Nadal has dominated clay.  Rafa is Borg’s equal in French Open titles, but his ownership of Monte Carlo, the Italian Open and Barcelona along with titles at the Hamburg/Madrid clay court Masters 1000 events is unreal.  Rafa being so far out in front of everyone on that surface gives him a cushion to work with on other surfaces when he is compared to other players.

However, Rafa does not really need that cushion as his second attribute will attest.  Rafa owns big titles on hard courts and grass courts and won his career Grand Slam much earlier in his career than Andre Agassi or Roger Federer did.  Nadal won the 2008 Olympic Gold medal on a hard court.  He won the 2009 Australian Open and 2010 US Open titles.  Throw in multiple titles at Indian Wells and at the Canadian Open along with  his runner-up finishes in New York and Melbourne, and no one can say Rafa is not a great hard court champion.  On grass, Rafa’s case is even stronger.  Rafa owns two Wimbledon titles as well as a title at the Queen’s Club.  Rafa is a three time Wimbledon runner-up.  Nadal has reached more Wimbledon championship matches than Stefan Edberg did!  Rafa knows grass.

Finally, Rafael Nadal holds an 18-10 head-to-head edge over Roger Federer.  A lot has been made of this fact.  I think their age gap along with the surface gap has some implications here, but the numbers are there.  Rafa has beaten Roger in many big matches.  This means something.

Why Rafael Nadal is not the GOAT - The French Open specifically and clay court tennis in general did not gain equal footing with events on faster surfaces until the mid 1980′s.  Rafael Nadal has never won a season ending title and has only reached the season ending event’s final round one time.  Rafael Nadal still trails Bjorn Borg’s 11 majors, Pete Sampras’ 14 majors and Roger Federer’s 16 majors.

You Decide - Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are still moving targets as they keep adding to their career accomplishments.  Consider that Federer and Nadal have combined to win seven titles in 2012 alone (and it is only May!).  Rafa being younger than Roger makes it even harder to know where his career will lead.  I can say with a lot of confidence that Rafa should equal and pass Bjorn Borg’s major totals.  The Spaniard’s hard court wins already have Nadal ahead of Borg in my all-time lists.  Will Rafa get to fourteen or sixteen majors?  That is harder to predict.  If his health holds up and he solves the Djokovic riddle, Nadal has a very good chance of laying claim to the title of GOAT.  If Rafa’s knees go and/or he cannot beat Nole on surfaces other than clay, in my mind he’ll likely end up somewhere among the top three post-Laver players.

Tags: ,

← Older Entries

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 895 other followers