Archive | Rafael Nadal RSS feed for this section

The State of US Men’s Tennis

8 Apr

 The Big Four Help

The US Open is obviously a Grand Slam event.  One third of the ATP’s Masters 1000 events reside inside of the United States.  The Wimbledon and French Open championship start times are designed to get access to some of the television market in the US.  Yet, the US does not currently have a male player ranked within the top 15 in the world.  Under ordinary circumstances, this would mean casual tennis fans would tune out inside the US.  Luckily, Roger Federer has been an incredible ambassador for tennis since 2004.  Rafael Nadal has won over many fans with a different style than Roger’s.  Novak Djokovic has brought a different personality and style of play that has made its way into the US sporting consciousness.  Andy Murray’s Olympic Gold and US Open title in 2012 helped him to make strides as well.  Federer reached his first major final in 2003, Nadal in 2005, Djokovic in 2007 and Murray in 2008.  Their consistency and general affability, along with Andy Roddick’s results, have helped keep tennis relevant for general fans of sports inside the US.

Where Have You Gone Andy Roddick or Aaron Krickstein?

Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open and was runner-up at four other Grand Slam events.  Andy Roddick reached at least a Grand Slam semifinal round on ten different occasions.  His contemporaries James Blake and Mardy Fish have combined for a handful of Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances, but neither has yet reached the final four of a slam.  Younger US  players have combined for a total of one Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance.  John Isner lost in the 2011 US Open quarterfinal round.  Sam Querrey, the highest ranked US player, along with Jack Sock, Ryan Harrison, and Denis Kudla have yet to reach a quarter at a major.

Todd Martin (no relation) was runner-up at both the 1994 Australian Open and the 1999 US Open. Mal Washington was runner-up at the 1996 Wimbledon Championships due in part to defeating Todd Martin in five sets in the semifinal round.  Aaron Krickstein reached a US Open semifinal in 1989 and an Australian Open semifinal in 1995.  David Wheaton reached the 1991 Wimbledon semifinals.  Robby Ginepri’s 2005 US Open semifinal run is the only comprable story in recent years.*

Where Things Stand

No country can ever bank on producing record setting champions such as Andre Agassi, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Pete Sampras.  To this point, the current crop of US players has not come close to producing results along the lines of what great players such as Michael Chang, Jim Courier, Vitas Gerulaitus or Andy Roddick achieved.  Few tennis fans remember Todd Martin or Mal Washington as key US players during the 1990s.  However, a male US citizen becoming a Grand Slam finalist would be a welcome site for the USTA.

Silver Linings

Mardy Fish won a silver medal in 2004.  James Blake and Mardy Fish have each appeared in Masters 1000 championship matches.  Blake contested a classic match against Andre Agassi at the 2005 US Open.  We’ve seen Isner compete in a historic marathon while also carving out a lot of success on faster courts and in Davis Cup.  Sam Querrey has rebounded nicely from an injury.  Finally, the very group of uber consistent Europeans known as the Big Four have made second week Grand Slam efforts harder to muster.

The US is becoming increasingly diverse.  A top ten dominated by players from Europe, South America and Asia will find prospective fans living in various parts of the US.  Beyond that, advances in broadcast quality have made tennis easier and easier to appreciate.  A US citizen won at least one slam on the men’s tour from 1989-2003.  Yet, tennis has been enjoying a popularity spike within the US that began in 2006?  Maybe things are not as gloomy as they appear.

In 10 Years?

In a decade Roger Federer will be 41.  Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray will each likely be out of tennis as well.  If the US does not produce a few top ten players over the next decade, I cannot imagine that tennis will be as popular as it is today in my home country.  Federer and Nadal are transcendent champions.  Novak Djokovic has done ballroom dancing en route to an Australian Open title.  Nole is close to joining the ranks of tennis’ pantheon.  Regardless of who the US produces, tennis will need to find some exceptional players to fill the void that the Big Four will leave.  Still, a few US players making runs can only help keep the profile of the sport high.  That is vital for tennis given the events that are held on US soil and the importance of the US television market.

* Since Ginepri is still out there grinding away on tour, he is the only active US citizen on the ATP Tour with a Grand Slam semifinal appearance to his name.

Tags: , , , , , ,

Tennis Power Ranking 2013: Indian Wells

17 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #4

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.

2.  Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising.  Change since last Ranking +1

3.  Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings.  Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show.  Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray.  Change since last ranking – 1

4.  Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players.  He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it.  Change since last ranking + 2

5.  Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time.  He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2.  My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing.  Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis.  Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5.  Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder.  Change since last ranking +3 

7.  David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013.  Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him.  Change since last ranking – 2

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -2

10.  Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Mover – Juan Martin del Potro +3

Dropped Out – Marin Cilic

Entered the Rankings – Milos Raonic

Tags: , , , , ,

Indian Wells 2013 Championship Predictions

17 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Final

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7)

I think Nadal completes a remarkable comeback by defeating a player who has given him some trouble.  Delpo is obviously on a roll beating Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in succession.  For JMDP to win he will need to serve big so that he holds routinely.  That would give JMDP the opportunity to take big swings and pressure Rafa’s serve.  I don’t think that happens.  Rafa is showing just why he is one of the greatest ever.  He was dominating last Spring and early Summer.  He gets hurt and misses 7 months.  He comes back and is winning at a high rate again.

Final

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8)

Wozniacki is making a move back toward the top 5.  That is a great story, but it is hard for me to pick a player who lives and dies on her opponent’s mistakes.  Sharapova may lose, but her play is going to determine who wins.  I’ll take the agressor to take the title.

 

Tags: , , , , ,

March 14, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

14 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinals

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Kevin Anderson - Kevin Anderson has had a great tournament.  Beating David Ferrer and Gilles Simon is no small task.  Still, Berdych will be able to hold serve more easily than Simon or Ferrer could.  The Big Czech will likely advance due to having a stronger ground game and due to having been in this situation more frequently.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) - Federer’s 2013 form has been a little dodgy.  Rafa is riding a winning streak.  This could go either way as Roger beat Rafa at Indian Wells last year.  Still, Federer does not seem quite right at this point in the year.

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – If Caro wants to get back to #1, she will need to win matches such as this one.  Azarenka has 2 slams to her name and collected two Olympic medals last year.  Wozniacki will need to add hardware such as that if her career is to be remembered as more than a rankings anomaly.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Samantha Stosur (7) – Kerber seems the less likely to blink if this match gets close.

Tags: , , , , ,

March 13, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

13 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Fourth Round

Andy Murray (3) vs. Carlos Berlocq - Murray should win in two easy sets as Berlocq has no weapons to threaten Murray.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Ernests Gulbis - Gulbis is on a hot streak and Nadal is maybe not sure about hard courts.  Still, Rafa is the smart pick.

Gilles Simon (13) vs. Kevin Anderson - Simon has struggled versus Isner who is the best analog for Anderson I can find.  Also, Anderson beat Ferrer who is a good analog for Simon.  I love Gilles’ game, but the big man advances.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Sam Querrey (23) – Sam beat Nole last fall.  Lightening is not going to strike twice.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18) – Stan may seem due to beat Roger , but for the most part this is a one-sided friendly Swiss rivalry.

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Richard Gasquet (10) – Two of the hottest players in 2013 collide.  I think Berdych wins due to having more weapons even if his game is less imaginative than Gasquet’s.

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Delpo already got to beat up on Davydenko and Hewitt.  I think the oldest man in the draw pulls off a mild upset to avenge the other veterans.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – Milos has to breakthrough at some point; why not now?

Tags: , , , , , ,

March 11, 2013: Indian Wells Match Picks

10 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

[5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Leonardo Mayer (ARG) – Rafa rolls

Ivan Dodig (CRO) v [2] Roger Federer (SUI) – Federer wins

Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) v [18] Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) – Call me nostalgic, but I think Rusty wins unless Stan returns well.

Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) v Kevin Anderson (RSA) – The big server beats the veteran.

[20] Andreas Seppi (ITA) v [Q] Ernests Gulbis (LAT) – Gulbis is en feugo

[6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) v [27] Florian Mayer (GER) – Berdych is one to watch in 2013.

[24] Jerzy Janowicz (POL) v [10] Richard Gasquet (FRA) – This is a tough one to call.  Jerzy has a massive serve (and a massive temper).  Gasquet has won two events in 2013.  I’ll take Gasquet and go against my previous policy of always picking against Gasquet.

[13] Gilles Simon (FRA) v Benoit Paire (FRA) – Simon wins a French Civil War.

Tags: , , , , , ,

Tennis 2013 Power Ranking: Dubai and Acapulco

3 Mar

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #3

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, and his strong showing in Dubai only underscores that point.

2.  Andy Murray - 2013 has brought Andy a Grand Slam runner-up finish and a 250 point title.  Still, it will be nice to see him in action again.

3.  Rafael Nadal - Rafa’s back-to-back titles coupled with Federer’s thus far shaky 2013 have him moving up the power ranking.   Change since last ranking +2

4.  Roger Federer – Roger does not seem like himself to this point in 2013.  Change since last ranking – 1

5.  David Ferrer – His loss to Rafa at Acapulco was like a continuation of his 2012 Roland Garros beating.  On the bright side, Ferrer reached two consecutive finals and won his first title of the year.  Change since last ranking – 1

6.  Tomas Berdych - A runner-up finish in Dubai has the Czech moving toward the top 5.  Change since last ranking +2

7.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer.  Change since last ranking -1 

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady

9.  Juan Martin del Potro – He won Rotterdam and reached the semis at Dubai.  Nole seems to be his nemesis. Change since last ranking – unranked  

10.  Marin Cilic - He has had a nice 2013.  Change since last ranking – unranked

Biggest Movers – Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych +2

Dropped Out – Jeremy Chardy and Horacio Zeballos

Entered the Rankings – Juan Martin del Potro and Marin Cilic 

Tags: , , , , ,

Tennis Power Rankings 2013: Chile and Beyond

11 Feb

Dan Martin’s 2013 Power Ranking #2 

1.  Novak Djokovic – Nole is still in control.

2.  Andy Murray - He’s posted a 19-2 match record at the 3 most recent Grand Slam events.

3.  Roger Federer – Will Rotterdam move Federer into a tie for career titles with John McEnroe?

4.  David Ferrer – Horacio Zeballos preserved Ferrer’s #4 ranking.

5.  Rafael Nadal – A runner-up finish in his first event back on tour has Nadal in a holding pattern.  He did not look rusty, but he lost for only the 5th time in a clay court final.

6.  Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year.  Change since last ranking +2

7.  Tomas Berdych – He did nothing wrong, but the big man had to make room for Gasquet.  Change since last ranking – 1

8.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – See #7.  Change since last ranking – 1 

9.  Horacio Zeballos - Anyone who beats Nadal in a clay court final gets some love.  Change since last ranking – Unranked

10.  Jeremy Chardy – His quarterfinal showing in Melbourne and semifinal in Chile land him in the top 10, but I would not bank on Chardy or Zeballos staying in my top 10 for long.  Marin Cilic could easily occupy the 9 0r 10 slot for this ranking.

Biggest Mover – Richard Gasquet +2

Dropped Out – Juan Martin del Potro

Entered the Rankings – Horacio Zeballos 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Rafael Nadal’s Comeback is Still On Track But Just Not the Fast Track

10 Feb

Credit Zeballos

Horacio Zeballos of Argentina won the biggest match of his life by defeating Rafael Nadal 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 to win in Vina del Mar, Chile.  Zeballos also defeated a cast of solid clay court players to reach the final by dispatching Pablo Andujar, Albert Ramos and Carlos Berlocq in succession.  Still, unless he had defeated Jim Courier, Mats Wilander and Bjorn Borg to reach the final round, Zeballos could not match the clay court achievement of defeating Rafael Nadal on clay with 3 other solid wins.  The 27 year old from Argentina should treasure this victory.  It was Nadal’s first loss on red clay since losing to Novak Djokovic at the 2011 installment of  Rome.  Zeballos is also the first left-handed player to defeat Nadal on red clay.*  His lefty forehand created nice angles against Rafa, and oddly, his one-handed backhand allowed for him to change the pace and spin during rallies in a manner that right-handed players with one-handed backhands have not been able to do against Rafa with any measure of success.

No Need to Panic for Team Rafa

Rafael Nadal won the first seven sets he played after a long time away from competitive tennis.  The two sets he lost were both close.  Also, the lefty Zeballos’ hitting a forehand from the corner that Nadal normally pins right-handed opponents cannot be underestimated.  Closing out sets, matches and tournaments can illicit some nerves from even great players.  Rafa will not roar back with a tournament title, but getting four matches under his belt is a good way to reintroduce himself to the tour.  Playing the Latin American swing for the first time since 2005 allows for Nadal to work these kinks out prior to Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Paris.

Nadal’s Win over Chardy was Encouraging

Jeremy Chardy entered this event with the momentum of his first Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance.  Chardy has a big inside-out forehand and a decent enough serve to win games against most players.  I expected Nadal to beat Chardy but by a score of something around 7-5, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-4.  Instead Nadal rolled Chardy 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinal round.  After Saturday’s results, I was expecting to be writing about Nadal as a force of nature on clay.  Instead, a fit and feisty opponent won a tight match against Rafa.

Play Long Points Against Rafa?

With the exception of Nole winning two consecutive matches in 2011, no one has had a consistent winning approach against Rafael Nadal on clay.  Obviously, some players will try to follow the JMDP, Soderling, Berdych’s approach of hitting through Nadal.  It hasn’t worked often (Soderling at the 2009 French Open), but a tall player has limited options against Nadal on clay.  Djokovic’s approach in 2011 was to pressure Rafa’s service game as much as possible.  It is a good approach if one returns anywhere near as well as Nole, but even the world number one could not repeat those results in 2012.  Maybe Rafa’s knees and other health ailments will encourage defensive players and counter-punchers to try to wear Rafa down and draw unforced errors from Nadal.  If a player can keep the score close versus a favorite, scoreboard pressure can also be an asset for the underdog.  It is a strategy that worked in February, but my guess is it will be less successful in June.

* Nadal did lose a match on blue clay in 2012 to the left-handed Fernando Verdasco

Tags: , , ,

Rafael Nadal to Miss 2013 Australian Open?

29 Dec

No Repeat of 2009 in 2013

There should be no question mark in the title as Nadal has announced he won’t be playing.  Still, at least two major questions are raised by this announcement. 

  1. If this is simply a matter of illness and not practicing, why announce on December 28 when the Australian Open does not start for 2 more weeks?
  2. Where does this leave Nadal going forward?

1.  I am not a physician.  I must think that a 26 year old athlete could mend from a stomach virus and play his way into form during the first week of the event.  The Australian Open provides days off between rounds.  If Nadal could recover and practice some over the next two weeks and grind through 2 matches, he’d have almost 3 weeks before facing a seeded opponent.  Rafa won the Australian Open in 2009 and was runner-up in 2012.  This is an event he should be playing unless he simply can’t.

I have to think the virus is only part of the thought process by Nadal.  3 out of 5 sets on slowish hard courts in Australian heat might be the wrong way to test out his knees.  Given that Rafa is playing the Latin American clay court circuit, I think we may see fewer and fewer hard court events from him in the future.  Only he knows how bad his knees are.  Maybe they are recovered, but he feels like another issue like he had in 2012 will spell the end of his career.

2.  I am not breaking any news here when I say that Nadal will make every effort to win the 2013 French Open.  I just think missing 2 consecutive Grand Slam events, the Olympic games and the World Tour Finals means that Nadal and his team are quite concerned about his career.  Nadal is super fit, fast, strong and determined.  He projects a toughness on court few have ever approached.  In contrast to his image, stands the reality of Nadal missing big events.  Consider that:

  • Nadal Missed the 2004 French Open with a Stress Fracture
  • Nadal Missed the 2005 World Tour Finals with a Stress Fracture
  • Nadal Missed the 2006 Australian Open with a Stress Fracture
  • Nadal Missed the 2008 World Tour Finals
  • Nadal Missed the 2009 Wimbledon Championships with Tendinitis of the Knee
  • Nadal Missed the 2012 Olympic Games, US Open and World Tour Finals with Knee Problems
  • Nadal Will Miss the 2013 Australian Open as the Result of a Stomach Virus

Rafael Nadal is a freakish athlete when healthy.  Maintaining his health has not been easy throughout his career.  He is only 26, but he has had serious injuries since 2004 and has been a top 5 player since 2005.  Nadal is an old 26 by the tour’s standards.  He has not had the down periods that helped Andre Agassi recharge from time to time.  He has not been blasting aces and playing short points a la Pete Sampras.  He has played 8 years in the top tier of the sport by grinding out long points through hustle and concentration.  I hope he can continue.  No one should second guess his approach to tennis as he has 11 major titles and a gold medal to his name.   The only thing I can say is that the most consistent player in tennis is at a spot where predicting his future results  is impossible.

Tags: ,

← Older Entries
Newer Entries →

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 895 other followers