In 2006, these two men staged one of the best matches of their rivalry in Rome.  Nadal prevailed in 5 electrifying sets.  In 2013, the two meet again in Rome in the championship match.  They have played enough times that we roughly know what to expect.  Federer will need to serve well, and he has served well this week.  Annacone might have added a wrinkle or two  in terms of returning Nadal’s serve up the line a little more frequently, but this match will come down to how well Roger’s backhand holds up to Nadal’s high bounding topspin and unrelenting consistency.  Roger has had a great week and more or less proven that the tales of his career winding down were premature.  Still, if I am to predict this match, I will pick Nadal in straight sets.  Given their history (particularly one-sided on clay) and given their 2013 form, Nadal winning somewhere along the lines of 6-4, 6-3  seems like the logical pick.

Women’s Semifinal Matches

1Serena Williams  vs. Simona Halep - I am not sure I need to explain anything about this prediction.

3Victoria Azarenka vs. 7Sara Errani - Based on clay court form, I’d take Errani, but I think the 2013 Australian Open champion and the World #1 are on a collision course.  Azarenka in 2 close sets is my pick.

Men’s Semifinal Matches

2Roger Federer  vs. Benoit Paire - Federer beat Paire easily in Madrid.  I think this match will be closer, but Roger should advance in 2 close sets.

5Rafael Nadal vs. 6Tomas Berdych - This is the match of the day.  Nadal should win.  Still, Nadal has lost two matches on clay in 2013 and has dropped 2 sets to Ferrer and 1 set to Gulbis over the past two events.  I have been bullish on Berdych’s form throughout 2013.  I think Nadal will win in straight sets, but if any of these four matches is going to be an gem it is this one.

This match is pretty straight forward to predict.  If things go according to form, Nadal should win.  Wawrinka is riding a big winning streak and playing the best tennis of his life.  Here are 3 keys to Wawrinka pulling an upset.

1. Stan must serve well.  The altitude in Madrid benefits the server and Wawrinka getting free points is a must.
2. Stan’s backhand has to hold up to pressure.  Rafa has won a lot of big matches against one-handed players by forcing high bounding shots into the backhand wing over and over again.
3. Stan will have to weather some storms.  He overcame Tsonga saving 3 match points and forcing a 3rd set.  He held up under pressure versus Berdych as well.  Rafa is going to have good runs during this match.  Stan has to bend but not break in these portions of the match.

Having said all of that I pick Rafa to win 7-5, 6-4 – Either way Stan will enter the top 10 in my next Power Ranking

Semifinals

5 Rafael Nadal vs. Pablo Andujar – If Andujar is ever going to win against Rafa, this is his chance.  Nadal played 2 tough sets and a 3rd set versus Ferrer.  Nadal is also seemingly a little rusty.  The altitude in Madrid has never been to Rafa’s liking.  Still, I don’t think anyone sanely picks an upset here.

6 Tomas Berdych vs. 15 Stanislas Wawrinka – Berdych to this point inb 2013 has outplayed Roger Federer and looks like a top 5 player.  Wawrinka is on a serious roll.  This is close to a 50-50 match, but I think Warinka is currently playing the best tennis of his career.  

Semifinals

1 Serena Williams vs. 7 Sara Errani - Serena seems ripe for an upset, and Errani could do it based upon her runner-up finish at Roland Garros in 2012.  Recent form seems to have little impact on how Serena will play in a given situation.  I think Williams is close enough to the finish line in Madrid to win this semifinal.

2 Maria Sharapova vs. 16 Ana Ivanovic - Ivanovic has put together some decent results at different times since her brief stint at number one.  I hope she gets back to the top five, but I am not going to bank on such a rebound at this stage of her career.

Quarterfinals
Kei Nishikori (14) vs. Pablo Andujar - A great match for tennis lovers, but I think Andujar will be more fresh and as I said earlier I love Pablo’s game.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6) – I think clay helps Berdych here.  He can hit through the court whereas Murray’s shots may sit up more.

David Ferrer (4) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Numero uno en Espana es Rafa!  This will be closer than Acapulco was though.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (15) – Stan is on a roll.

Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori - Federer has had a mediocre 2013 by his standards.  He also has points to defend.  I expect Roger to advance, but a loss would not be shocking.

Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon - In 2008, Simon looked like Murray’s mini-me.  This could go either  way on clay.  I still think Murray advances.

David Ferrer vs. Tommy Haas - A rematch of their Miami semifinal.  Haas just won a tournament, but Ferrer on clay in Spain has to be the pick.

Rafael Nadal vs. Mikhail Youzhny - In 2006 at the US Open, I’d pick the Russian.  Rafa advances

Tomas Berdych vs. Kevin Anderson - The big Czech should win on clay.  Still, Anderson keeps winning matches.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco - My first upset pick for May 9th’s slate of matches.  Tsonga nearly beat Nole at Roland Garros last year and pushed Rafa in Monte Carlo this year.  Still, clay favors Verdasco who needs a signature win.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov - This match is worth the price of admission.  Wawrinka just won a tournament beating #4 David Ferrer in the final.  Dimitrov took a set off of Rafa at Monte Carlo and beat Djokovic in Madrid.  I think Wawrinka’s momentum helps him hold off Dimitrov, but the youngster is making waves.

Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs. Pablo Andujar - I love Pablo.

Andy Murray and David Ferrer had a pair of intense matches at the 2012 French Open and Wimbledon events.  Each man took a hard earned four set victory on his preferred surface.  Since that time, Murray has won an Olympic Gold Medal and a US Open title.  Ferrer led the tour in tournament victories in 2012 and won his first Masters 1000 crown.  Both have had some tough losses as well.  Novak Djokovic made Andy Murray into a three-time Australian Open runner-up.  Ferrer got smashed by Djokovic in Australia and by Nadal in Acapulco.  The winner will leave the first portion of 2013 with momentum.

Ferrer Deserves Credit

David Ferrer reached his first French Open semifinal in 2012 only to be crushed by Rafael Nadal.  He followed that with a grass court title, a victory over Andy Roddick on grass, and a tough Wimbledon quarterfinal loss to Andy Murray.  Ferrer reached the 2012 US Open and 2013 Australian Open semifinal rounds.   Novak Djokovic then laid a beating on Ferrer.  All David did was go win Buenos Aires and reach the final in Acapulco.  Once again he took a one-sided beating at the hands of one of his superiors on tour (this time Nadal).  All David has done is reach a Masters 1000 final in Miami.  Ferrer is undeterred by some harsh reminders that he lacks the weapons generally needed to claim tennis’ biggest prizes.  If he wins Miami, he’ll add that to his Paris title from 2012 and various Davis Cup victories.

Andy Murray is at Home

Miami is a training ground for Andy Murray.  He has played quite well at this Masters event.  Miami’s slow hard courts are ideally suited for his return game.  Murray won Miami in 2009 and was runner-up in 2012.  These factors would seemingly bode well for him versus Ferrer.  Murray has a 6-5 head-to-head  record versus Ferrer.  He is 5-1 on hard courts in their rivalry.  Still, the 2011 Australian Open semifinal went 4 sets, and Ferrer has had more success versus Murray than any of the other members of the big 4.  All of this leads me to predict a close victory for Murray.  I think Murray wins his second title in Miami 7-5, 7-5.

Semifinals

Gasquet Posted a Huge QF Win

Andy Murray (2) vs. Richard Gasquet (8) – Gasquet is re-establishing himself in a big way, but I think Murray is going to win in an entertaining match.

Haas has Beaten Djokovic and Federer Over the Past 52 Weeks

David Ferrer (3) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – I picked against Haas twice, I won’t do it this time.  I think Haas can dictate play versus Ferrer is he is zoning, and he appears to be zoning.

Quarterfinals
David Ferrer (3) vs. Jurgen Melzer - Jurgen could win, but Ferrer is a guy who tends to win the matches he is supposed to win.

Gilles Simon (11) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – Simon is the player who may be fatigued.  Haas beat Federer at Halle last year and Nole in Miami this year.  Not bad for a guy in my age range.  Still, I think Gilles will grind out a 3 set win.

Quarterfinals

Maria Sharapova (3) vs. Sara Errani (8) – A rematch of the 2012 French Open final will likely produce the same result.

Roberta Vinci (15) vs. Jelena Jankovic (22) – JJ is just not someone I will pick very often in later rounds at this stage of her career.

Fourth Round

Albert Ramos vs. Jurgen Melzer - I love Melzer, but I think the slow hard courts will benefit Ramos more.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – Nole should win, but Tommy Haas’ resurgence has been a nice story over the past 15 months.

Andy Murray (2) vs. Andreas Seppi (16) – Murray will win in one of his adopted home towns.

David Ferrer (3) vs. Kei Nishikori (13)

Tomas Berdych (4) vs. Sam Querrey (17) – Big man tennis here, but Berdych just has more game.  His backhand and return game are better than Querrey’s.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6) vs. Marin Cilic (9) – The Croatian pulls off a mild upset.

Janko Tipsarevic (7) vs. Gilles Simon (11) – Simon is sneaky good and Tipsy has struggled in recent months.

Richard Gasquet (8) vs. Nicolas Almagro (10) – This is a 50-50 match, but the court speed favors Almagro’s game.