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Masters Rome: Semifinal Predictions

17 May

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Women’s Semifinal Matches

1Serena Williams  vs. Simona Halep - I am not sure I need to explain anything about this prediction.

3Victoria Azarenka vs. 7Sara Errani - Based on clay court form, I’d take Errani, but I think the 2013 Australian Open champion and the World #1 are on a collision course.  Azarenka in 2 close sets is my pick.

Men’s Semifinal Matches

2Roger Federer  vs. Benoit Paire - Federer beat Paire easily in Madrid.  I think this match will be closer, but Roger should advance in 2 close sets.

5Rafael Nadal vs. 6Tomas Berdych - This is the match of the day.  Nadal should win.  Still, Nadal has lost two matches on clay in 2013 and has dropped 2 sets to Ferrer and 1 set to Gulbis over the past two events.  I have been bullish on Berdych’s form throughout 2013.  I think Nadal will win in straight sets, but if any of these four matches is going to be an gem it is this one.

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March 14, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

14 Mar

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinals

Tomas Berdych (6) vs. Kevin Anderson - Kevin Anderson has had a great tournament.  Beating David Ferrer and Gilles Simon is no small task.  Still, Berdych will be able to hold serve more easily than Simon or Ferrer could.  The Big Czech will likely advance due to having a stronger ground game and due to having been in this situation more frequently.

Roger Federer (2) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) - Federer’s 2013 form has been a little dodgy.  Rafa is riding a winning streak.  This could go either way as Roger beat Rafa at Indian Wells last year.  Still, Federer does not seem quite right at this point in the year.

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – If Caro wants to get back to #1, she will need to win matches such as this one.  Azarenka has 2 slams to her name and collected two Olympic medals last year.  Wozniacki will need to add hardware such as that if her career is to be remembered as more than a rankings anomaly.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Samantha Stosur (7) – Kerber seems the less likely to blink if this match gets close.

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Australian Open Women’s Final Pick Li vs. Azarenka

25 Jan

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [1]
v
Na Li (CHN) [6]

WARNING: I have picked against Na Li in the past two rounds and been spectacularly wrong.  Each player enters the third Grand Slam final of her career.  I think Li has more variety than Azarenka and a better serve.  Those two factors give Li more than a passing chance at victory.  The reason I think Azarenka will win is that she moves well and has a great ground game.  She is the number one player in the world and is the defending champion.  Yet, most of this event has focused on Maria Sharapova’s early dominance and Serena Williams’ chances at a calendar Grand Slam.  Vika has a chance to let everyone know that the matches not the press decide how trophies and prize money are distributed.  I think Azarenka has a 55-60% chance of victory.

My prediction is Azarenka d. Li 7-5, 6-2.

 

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Australian Open Day 10 Women’s Picks

22 Jan

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Women’s Singles – Quarterfinals

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [1] v Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) – Kuznetsova has a chance.  Still, the defending champion and world #1 has a method for ceasing to be an afterthought – beat people.  I think Vika wins in 2 tight sets.

Serena Williams (USA) [3] v Sloane Stephens (USA) [29] – Great result for Stephens, but the road ends here.  Serena is looking determined and Sharapova’s steamrolling likely motivates Serena for a top level showdown to decide the title.

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Australian Open Day 8 Women’s Picks

20 Jan

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Fourth Round

Sloane Stephens (29) vs. Bojana Jovanovski - I think Stephens keeps moving up the ranks.

Serena Williams (3) vs. Maria Kierilenko (14) – Kirilenko is a sound player.  Still, Serena is on a roll.

Caroline Wozniacki (10) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - Kuzy beat Wozniacki in a tune-up.  This is a possible upset.  I just think Wozniacki will be steady enough, as she was at the 2010 US Open, to grind out a close win.  I am almost certain that this match will go 3 sets.

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Elena Vesnina - Azarenka is the 3rd wheel on the Sharapova-Serena storyline emerging.

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Who Will Win the 2013 Women’s Australian Open? POLL

12 Jan

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Top Accomplishment by a Female Player in 2012 (POLL)

20 Dec

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US Open Super Saturday Match Previews and Picks

8 Sep

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Women’s Final

 Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Serena Williams (4)

Victoria Azarenka has had a great, and I mean great, 2012.  She won her first Grand Slam final in Melbourne in convincing fashion.  That victory led to her becoming #1 in the world in a manner that Jankovic, Safina and Wozniacki never did.  She had a great winning streak.  Vika won a Gold Medal in mixed doubles and a Bronze Medal in singles to add to her trophy case.

She now has an opportunity.  Right now Vika is the #2 player in the world in my mind and in the minds of most tennis fans and pundits.  A win today would mean 2 slams, 2 Olympic medals and control of the destiny of the WTA.  In 2011, Vika played Serena tough losing 1-6, 6-7.  At Wimbledon 2012, Vika lost 3-6, 6-7.  Their Olympic match was a thrashing, but Azarenka was the one player in this draw that I thought had a realistic shot at beating Serena.*

Will she win?  I don’t think so.  Sernea is clearly #1 on grass courts.  I think Serena is #1 everywhere else as well.  I expect the match to be reasonably close, but Serena’s serve, ability to go from defense to offense and will to win set her apart in most of these big occasions.  For Vika to win, she will need to force Sernea to play defensive tennis when possible, shift from defense to offense when possible and play great defense herself.  Those are a lot of “ifs” needed for victory so I will pick the consensus favorite to take her 4th US Open title.  Prediction: Serena Williams d. Victoria Azarenka 6-4, 6-3.

* – Kim Clijsters lengthy winning streak at the US Open made me think she had a miraculous shot at winning the title as well.

Semifinals

Novak Djokovic (2) vs. David Ferrer (4)

We saw this same match in the 2007 US Open semifinal round.  The good news for David Ferrer is he is playing much better than he did in 2007.  The bad news is that Novak Djokovic is playing much better as well.  Novak is 32-1 in his 5 most recent hard court Grand Slam events.  Ferrer has played magnificent tennis in 2012 and especially here in New York.  I think Ferrer will earn a set vs. Nole, but Novak is going to his 3rd consecutive US Open final.  The deciding factor is Nole’s return and serve are both stronger than Ferrer’s.  That is too much real estate to surrender and expect to win a 3 out of 5 set match.  Prediction: Novak Djokovic d. David Ferrer 6-3, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6)

Berdych has beaten Murray on clay and could bully him off of the court.  However, I think Murray’s speed will be the difference in this match.  If Murray can dig out some of Berdych’s booming shots and force the big man to scramble some via counter-punching, Murray wins in 4 sets.  Prediction: Andy Murray d. Tomas Berdych 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2.

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US Open Women’s Semifinal Picks

7 Sep

Semifinals

Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Maria Sharapova (3) – Sharapova reversed her career troubles vs. Vika on clay this year.  AA Sharapova win would not shock me; especially if Vika is drained either emotionally or physically from her quarterfinal match.  Nevertheless, Vika dominated Sharapova on hard courts in big occasions twice this year.

Serena Williams (4) vs. Sara Errani (10) – Errani will have to play incredible defense and make her way to the net to have a chance at winning.  I love Errani’s spirit, and she has had a great 2012.  Her Grand Slam run in 2012 ends today.

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US Open Day 9 Men’s and Women’s Picks

4 Sep

Projected Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinals
Victoria Azarenka (1) vs. Samantha Stosur (7) – Stosur has played well to get this far after a somewhat shaky post French Open stretch.  Still, the #1 seed should beat the defending champion in a close 2 set match.

Maria Sharapova (3) vs. Marion Bartoli (11) – Bartoli can beat just about anyone, but I think she used her big match vs. Kvitova.  Sharapova in 2.

Fourth Round
Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Stanislas Wawrinka (18) – Stan will make Novak beat him, but I expect Nole to win in 3 or 4 sets.

David Ferrer (4) vs. Richard Gasquet (13) – I am going against my usual pick against Gasquet formula.  Ferrer is playing awfully well, and on paper he is the favorite.  I just have a feeling about Gasquet.

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Andy Roddick (20) – 2003 Champion vs. 2009 Champion – This is hard to predict as the crowd is an X Factor.  If this is a Davis Cup environment, Roddick has a slight edge.  Under normal circumstances, I’d pick JMDP.  I think Delpo has enough mentally to get through in a tight match.

Janko Tipsarevic (8) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber (19) – A one-handed backhand bias in my picks today?  Maybe, but Kohlschreiber is capable of advancing.

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