Quarterfinals
David Ferrer (3) vs. Jurgen Melzer - Jurgen could win, but Ferrer is a guy who tends to win the matches he is supposed to win.

Gilles Simon (11) vs. Tommy Haas (15) – Simon is the player who may be fatigued.  Haas beat Federer at Halle last year and Nole in Miami this year.  Not bad for a guy in my age range.  Still, I think Gilles will grind out a 3 set win.

Quarterfinals

Maria Sharapova (3) vs. Sara Errani (8) – A rematch of the 2012 French Open final will likely produce the same result.

Roberta Vinci (15) vs. Jelena Jankovic (22) – JJ is just not someone I will pick very often in later rounds at this stage of her career.

Final

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7)

I think Nadal completes a remarkable comeback by defeating a player who has given him some trouble.  Delpo is obviously on a roll beating Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in succession.  For JMDP to win he will need to serve big so that he holds routinely.  That would give JMDP the opportunity to take big swings and pressure Rafa’s serve.  I don’t think that happens.  Rafa is showing just why he is one of the greatest ever.  He was dominating last Spring and early Summer.  He gets hurt and misses 7 months.  He comes back and is winning at a high rate again.

Final

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8)

Wozniacki is making a move back toward the top 5.  That is a great story, but it is hard for me to pick a player who lives and dies on her opponent’s mistakes.  Sharapova may lose, but her play is going to determine who wins.  I’ll take the agressor to take the title.

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Quarterfinal Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) – Et tu Tsonga?  Doubtful.  Nole advances to the semis.

Andy Murray (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro (7) – If Murray is still nuring his Australian Open loss, Delpo has a great chance at an upset.  My guess is Murray is slowly moving toward the Wimbledon-US Open stretch with hopes of a decent run on clay.  Therefore, an unburdened Murray advances.

Semifinal Round

Maria Sharapova (2) vs. Maria Kirilenko (13) – Kirilenko could win, but the odds are heavily in favor of Sharapova advancing.

Angelique Kerber (4) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (8) – I see Caro building on her win over Azarenka with a win here.

What about tennis?  My gut says that tennis is still fairly clean as a sport.  Still, some PEDs help with the production of fast twitch muscle fibers.  These would help with racquet head speed in the same manner that they helped with baseball swing speeds.  Other PEDs help with stamina and recovery time.  Given that the tennis season stretches over 10 months with events on 6 continents, it is quite possible that some players may want a boost in recovering from matches and travel just as participants in cycling have done.

With no evidence, I am not going to level any accusations.  I have no one specifically to suspect.  I also think that slander is serious business.  I do think that if tennis does not maintain vigilance and increase sophistication to match new methods of dopping it may find that the bells tolling for cycling and baseball begin to toll for the ATP, WTA and ITF.

Serena’s Place on the All-Time List

I will go into this more fully at a later date, but I am not going to Jon Wertheim route from a few years ago.  I do not see Serena as the GOAT and her path to achieve that status would be challenging.  Steffi Graf and Martina Navratilova both seem to me to be comfortably out in front of Serena for the time being.  Still, I think this victory helps Serena in debates against Monica Seles and Chris Evert.  Seles is the hardest all-time great to rank because her tragic stabbing altered the course of a career that was on a trajectory to challenge almost every record in singles.  I somewhat hesitantly place Serena in front of Seles.  Evert may have more singles slams than Serena, but I think Serena’s doubles excellence places her ahead of Evert.  My top 5 without giving it more thought (future deep thought post forthcoming) would be Graf, Navratilova, Serena Williams, Monica Seles and then Chris Evert.  I realize Graf did not dominate in doubles either, but I think the Golden Slam has to count for something.

I have not written a ton about the WTA.  Some could consider this to be me automatically liking men’s tennis better than women’s tennis.  This is not the case.  I have been following tennis consistently since 1985.  I vividly remember Hana Mandlikova defeating Martina Navratilova at the 1985 US Open final.  I became an immediate Steffi Graf fan watching her push Martina hard in the 1986 US Open semifinal round.  The 1992 Monica Seles – Graf clash at the French Open that ended 6-2, 3-6, 10-8 in Seles’ favor was far better viewing for most fans than Jim Courier’s 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 thrashing of Petr Korda at the same event.  My lack of coverage of the WTA over the past few years has a lot to do with how confusing and disjointed the women’s game has been at a time when men’s tennis is producing epic matches and all-time great players.  I think order is being restored on the women’s side of the sport, and I could not be more pleased with this development.

2012: A Much Better Year

2012 has been an even better year for the WTA.  Victoria Azarenka won her first Grand Slam title and joined Petra Kvitova as a contender for the foreseeable future.  Azarenka claimed the #1 ranking and the Australian Open title.  Azarenka went on an undefeated streak that did not quite live up to Nole’s from 2011, but it was a streak that had to be respected.

Maria Sharapova joined the party by winning her first French Open title and returning to #1.  After years of players being ranked #1 without a Grand Slam title in the past 52 weeks or no Grand Slam titles period, Azarenka and Sharapova have created continuity between tennis’ top ranked players and the winners of tennis’ top events.

The old arrangement made top ranked players look like caretakers while part-time players collected the biggest prizes at tennis’ most visible  events.  In short, casual fans and even long-time tennis fans were often left scratching their head when looking at the WTA Tour.

Now, Sharapova and Azarenka are in a race to see who finishes 2012 ranked #1.  Petra Kvitova has not played great at smaller events in 2012, but she is 10-2 in Grand Slam play this year.  Petra is 1 slam away from creating another trivalry.  The crowded summer of an Olympic year, held at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club no less, should give Azarenka, Sharapova and Kvitova a chance to prove who is #1 in a way that makes the ranking more meaningful than it has been in years.

This will be short as Simon has already won.  I simply will pick the first seeds in both other finals today.  I think Rafael Nadal beats David Ferrer in Barcelona.  I think Victoria Azarenka prevails against Maria Sharapova in Stuttgart.  I was 5-1 in my picks yesterday.  We shall see if today follows that form.  Enjoy the videos.

Deja Vu in Spain?

I am not sure about 6-2, 6-0, but Vika should win.

There is a slate of interesting matches for all three events.  Here are my picks:

Barcelona

1 Rafael Nadal vs. 9 Fernando Verdasco – Rafa should win this match in a fairly straightforward manner.  Verdasco did stage a classic with Nadal at the 2009 Australian Open, but I would be shocked if Verdasco offered that much resistance in 2012.

3 David Ferrer vs. 11 Milos Raonic – Milos’ serve is the biggest weapon possessed by the three semifinalists not named Rafa.  It takes weapons to beat Rafa, and I would love to see that final (one in which I would pick Rafa to win), but I think Ferrer advances.

Stuttgart

1 Victoria Azarenka vs. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska – I could say law of averages makes Aga due for a win vs. Vika, but I will stick with the world number one to advance.

 2 Maria Sharapova vs. 3 Petra Kvitova – I think Petra is the more natural athlete and on clay that makes a big difference.

Bucharest

1 Gilles Simon vs. Matthias Bachinger – Simon continues his Monte Carlo form with a win.

Fabio Fognini vs. Attila Balazs – Fognini is a solid clay court player so I expect him to advance.

I grew up in Kentucky where college basketball is the life blood of the state.  As an aside, the University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, Murray State University and Western Kentucky University combined to win 2 conference titles and 3 conference tournament titles, to make two Final Four appearances, to win one NCAA title, and to post a 12-3 win loss record in the recent NCAA men’s basketball tournament.  Pat Summitt’s Tennessee teams were regular fixtures in the late stages of NCAA women’s basketball tournaments from my childhood in the 1980′s through 2012.  Summitt no longer being an active coach is a sad day for the sports.

Pat Summitt and Billie Jean King

During those same 1980′s when I was aware of Summitt’s work at Tennessee, women’s tennis was (and still is) firmly planted as the most prestigious sport open to women.  The status of women in tennis is completely indebted to the work of Billie Jean King.  In the 1980′s, I thought King may have been the subject of a Michael Jackson song and was not aware of how important her life as an athlete and Summitt’s work as a coach were.  Looking back, I think it is safe to say that women’s sports in the United States and around the world ranging from volleyball to soccer would not be where they are today without the work of King and Summitt.  As a son, brother and father, I am glad to see so many doors opened.  It is important at a time like this to appreciate the two women who opened the most doors.

Predicted winner in BOLD

Final

I know Lucie Safarova just served up a double bagel.  I know Safarova pushed Serena hard last summer (see video clip).  It is clay, and Safarova is a lefty.  All of these factors might mean that an upset is brewing.  Still, Serena Williams is playing too well not to expect her to win The Family Circle Cup.   I think Serena wins in straight sets with the first set being tight, but Serena should pull away to take the second set in routine fashion.

• 5	Serena Williams
  9	Lucie Safarova