Tag Archives: Milos Raonic

March 12, 2013: Indian Wells Match Predictions

12 Mar

Predicted Winner in BOLD

Third Round

Juan Martin del Potro (7) vs. Bjorn Phau - Delpo should win in a straightforward match.

Sam Querrey (23) vs. Marinko Matosevic - USTA, “Help us Sam Querrey.  You’re our only hope.”

Andy Murray (3) vs. Yen-Hsun Lu - Murray wins

Kei Nishikori (16) vs. Carlos Berlocq - On paper, Nishikori should win, but I think Berlocq’s Latin American clay court run has him match tough.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (31) – Nole in 2, but this match is worth the price of admission.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8) vs. Mardy Fish (32) – Will Tsonga take out Blake and Fish?

Nicolas Almagro (11) vs. Tommy Haas (19) – Almagro should win based on his 2013 Australian Open run, but I think Haas will advance due to a friendly crowd and surface for his game.

Marin Cilic (12) vs. Milos Raonic (17) – This is the most interesting match of the day.  The Croatian versus the Canadian with Serbian roots.  One is reclaiming lost momentum in his career.  The other is trying to move into another tier.  I think Raonic will win because he does have a top 5 serve even if the rest of his game is a work in progress.

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Australian Open Day 8 Men’s Picks

20 Jan

Over the Past 3 Days I have been 17-5 in my Men’s Picks

Predicted Winners in BOLD

Singles – Fourth Round

[13] M Raonic (CAN) v [2] R Federer (SUI) – Raonic has a puncher’s chance against anyone.  He pushed Roger hard in their matches last year.  Raonic also had the perfect 3rd round opponent to get ready for Roger in Philipp Kohlschreiber.  I think this will go at least 4 sets, but Roger is likely going to hold serve often enough to make this match about Raonic’s return game rather than his service game.

[14] G Simon (FRA) v [3] A Murray (GBR) – Simon might be physically gone.  Even if he is fit, Murray does a lot of what Simon does really well, but he has a bigger overall game.  Murray in 3 or 4.

[7] J Tsonga (FRA) v [9] R Gasquet (FRA) – I used to say always pick against Gasquet.

J Chardy (FRA) v [21] A Seppi (ITA) – Chardy will be an unseeded quarterfinalist.

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Power Ranking for the Week of June 11 – June 17

11 Jun

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of June 11 through June 17

The French Open Reshapes My Top 10

1.  Rafael Nadal - A French Open title, two Masters 1000 titles and 3 consecutive wins over Nole have Rafa moving into the top spot.  Change from last ranking +1

2.  Novak Djokovic – Nole surrenders the top spot in my non-binding Power Ranking.  Nole should welcome a chance in surfaces.  Change from last ranking – 1 

3. Roger Federer – The Fed has won a lot of matches and tournaments since the 2011 US Open closed.  Still, he is clearly behind two younger players.  His confidence and mental toughness have dipped against Rafa and Nole too.

4.  David Ferrer - A semifinal in Paris was rewarded with a beating from Rafa.  I will be more kind and reward David with a slot in the top 4.  Change from last ranking +1

5.  Juan Martin del Potro - Delpo is looking solid so long as he can remain healthy.  Confidence and health are all the stands between JMDP and the #3 ranking.  Change from last ranking + 2

6.  Tomas Berdych - If you are looking for a Wimbledon dark horse Berdych is a good candidate.  In 2010, he beat Federer and Djokovic at SW19.  Berdych has been solid in 2012 and will benefit from the surface change.  Change from last ranking – 2

7.  Andy Murray - What has happened to Andy’s promising start to 2012?  I am predicting that the Lendl experiment will not last beyond the US Open. 

8.  Nicolas Almagro – He played Nadal as tough as anyone in the first 6 rounds of the French Open.  Almagro’s serve and power give him a shot at a nice hard court season. 

9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Tsonga turned his game on at the start of the 2011 grass court season.  If he uses some momentum from the French Open, Tsonga could have a big remainder to the year.  If he worries about defending points, Tsonga will struggle.  Change from Last Ranking – Not Ranked

10.  Milos Raonic – He played well enough in Paris to think he could have a big summer on surfaces that reward his serve a bit more.  Change from last week – Not Ranked

Biggest Movers – Rafael Nadal moved to number 1 &  Novak Djokovic dropped off of number 1

Dropped Out of the Rankings – Gilles Simon and Janko Tipsarevic

Entered the Rankings – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic

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French Open Predictions for June 2, 2012

1 Jun

Predicted Winners in BOLD

I went 6-2 with my June 1 Picks

2 Rafael Nadal vs. Eduardo Schwank  – Rafa rolls

A big serve during Raonic’s blue period

13 Juan Monaco vs. 19 Milos Raonic – This may be the toughest match for me to predict.  Monaco is a fighter who will spill his guts to win.  Raonic’s serve is the best in the business.  Monaco beat Isner on clay in Houston so he should have some frame of reference.  Still, I am going to pick Raonic in a mild upset.  I don’t think either man can beat Rafa in the round of 16, but I do think each man is unlikely to play frightened if he gets the chance to face Nadal.

12 Nicolas Almagro vs. Leonardo Mayer – In the seco0nd Argentine vs. Spaniard match of the day, I think the Spaniard wins.   Almagro has quietly had a great year to this point, and I think he advances.

29 Julien Benneteau vs. 8 Janko Tipsarevic – I could see this match go either direction, but Tipsy is in the top 10 for a reason.

4 Andy Murray vs. Santiago Giraldo – Murray should win unless his back is in terrible shape.

17 Richard Gasquet vs. Tommy Haas – Gasquet beat the future of one-handed backhands in Grigor.  Haas is the past of one-handed backhand excellence.  I think Gasquet wins even if I have a rule to always doubt Gasquet.

Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. Marcel Granollers – I think if Mathieu has enough left in the tank after his marathon vs. Isner he will win.  Given that Mathieu is a fitness not, I think he will be fine.  Given that Mathieu has an injured (broken?) toe, I think Granollers has a chance.

27 Mikhail Youzhny vs. 6 David Ferrer – This is an intriguing match.  I think Ferrer has to win based on steadiness, fight and fitness.  Youzhny has the game and variety to disrupt Ferrer’s desired metronome-like rhythm for rallying.  Still, in three out of five sets the consistency of Ferrer should prevail.

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Power Ranking for the Week of April 29 – May 5, 2012

30 Apr

Dan Martin’s 2012 Power Rankings for the

Week of April 29 through May 5

1.  Novak Djokovic – Novak is the number one player in the world, but he will face challenges to remain number one in 2012.

2. Rafael Nadal – A seventh consecutive Barcelona title have Nadal surging.  He is the greatest ever on clay.  No one has dominated a surface like he has.


3.  Roger Federer – Fed’s 2012 titles in Dubai, Rotterdam and Indian Wells have him ranked number three.

4.  Andy Murray -  David Ferrer nearly passed Murray.  Raonic is good and getting better, but that is a match Murray needed to win.

5.  David Ferrer – Near misses are hard to gauge.  Is Ferrer close to a big run or is he forever outside of the top four?

6. Juan Martin del Potro – Delpo has played well prior to the clay court swing, but I think some of his comeback momentum might slow on the soft courts of Europe.

7.  Nicolas Almagro – Almagro holds steady for now despite a loss to Raonic.

8.  Tomas Berdych – Berdych is still in my top eight.

9. Gilles Simon - A solid week in Monte Carlo followed by a title has Simon rising.  Change since last week – Not Ranked

10.  Milos Raonic – The big kid has won two titles in 2012, been runner-up at another and just logged two strong wins on clay before losing a close match to David Ferrer.  If Raoinic plays clay court tennis a la Isner (i.e. serve bombs to hold and take cuts at the slower bounces), he could be a factor in some big matches this year.  Change since last week – Not Ranked

Dropped Out – Juan Monaco and John Isner

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Barcelona, Stuttgart and Bucharest Semifinal Picks

28 Apr

Projected Winners in BOLD

There is a slate of interesting matches for all three events.  Here are my picks:

Barcelona

1 Rafael Nadal vs. 9 Fernando Verdasco – Rafa should win this match in a fairly straightforward manner.  Verdasco did stage a classic with Nadal at the 2009 Australian Open, but I would be shocked if Verdasco offered that much resistance in 2012.

3 David Ferrer vs. 11 Milos Raonic – Milos’ serve is the biggest weapon possessed by the three semifinalists not named Rafa.  It takes weapons to beat Rafa, and I would love to see that final (one in which I would pick Rafa to win), but I think Ferrer advances.

Stuttgart

1 Victoria Azarenka vs. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska – I could say law of averages makes Aga due for a win vs. Vika, but I will stick with the world number one to advance.

 2 Maria Sharapova vs. 3 Petra Kvitova – I think Petra is the more natural athlete and on clay that makes a big difference.

Bucharest

1 Gilles Simon vs. Matthias Bachinger – Simon continues his Monte Carlo form with a win.

Fabio Fognini vs. Attila Balazs – Fognini is a solid clay court player so I expect him to advance.

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Youtube Tennis for 2-27-2012 through 3-3-2012

27 Feb

1.  Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in Dubai

2. David Ferrer vs. Nicolas Almagro in Mexico

 3.  Milos Raonic’s Serve in SloMo

4.  Jimmy Connors vs. Ivan Lendl at Wimbledon 1984

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Youtube Tennis for the Week of 2-20-2012

20 Feb

Big Wins for Almagro, Azarenka, Federer and Raonic

1. Roger Federer vs. Juan Martin del Potro Rotterdam 2012 Highlights

Federer wins his 71st career title beating Juan Martin del Potro for the second time in 2012.  Delpo crashed the finals by demolishing Tomas Berdych.

2.  Milos Raonic won his 2nd title of 2012.  Here are some highlights of his win in India earlier this year.  It is a good sign that Raonic defended his title from 2011.

3.  Nicolas Almagro won the Brasil Open yet again.  Here is some video of Almagro practicing.  He has a great ground game.

4.  Victoria Azarenka continues her run as the #1 player in the world with a title in Doha.  Azarenka may finally restore order to the WTA Tour.  Greater predictability helps the sport so hats off to Vika.

5.  A nice interview with Rod Laver.

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Australian Open Day 6 Men’s Picks

20 Jan

Quick Picks

Predicted Winners in Bold

  1. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga already advanced so no need to pick here.
  2. Andy Murray should beat Michael Llodra in straight sets.  Llodra has enough talent to take one set, but I don’t expect Murray to be troubled.
  3. Novak Djokovic should win easily vs. Nicolas Mahut.
  4. David Ferrer should beat Juan Ignacio Chela in 3 or 4 sets.  I expect a lot of rallies.  Ferrer benefits as the match progresses.
  5. Janko Tipsarevic should win in 3 or 4 sets vs. Richard Gasquet.  Janko is playing well, and Gasquet is just not steady enough in my mind to win.
  6. I think Milos Raonic beats Lleyton Hewitt in 4 sets, but if this gets to a 5th set the advantage shifts heavily to Hewitt.
  7. I am picking Mikhail Kukushkin in a mild upset over Gael Monfils.  Kukushkin is solid.  Monfils should have momentum after his runner-up finish in Qatar (not to mention his win over Nadal), but I just think he will play too far behind the baseline to win.
  8. Kei Nishikori and Julien Benneteau are both nice players.  This is a hard one to call, but I think Nishikori wins 4 tight sets against the veteren Frenchmen.

What do you think?

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Milos Raonic Leads a New Wave

12 Jan

Historical Waves

Tennis players tend to arrive in waves.  Pete Sampras was so dominant that his generation, including Andre Agassi, Jim Courier, Sergi Bruguera, Goran Ivanisevic, Thomas Muster, Michael Chang, and Richard Krajicek, more or less eclipsed the next group of promising players.  To be sure, Gustavo Kuerten, Patrick Rafter and Yevgeny Kafelnikov made marks in the historical records, but most others failed to break through on the biggest stages of tennis.  That led to the New Balls generation taking the reigns starting with Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt’s successes in 2000 and 2001.  Guga could be placed with this group as he was part of the promotional campaign, but he was older than most of the featured players.  Juan Carlos Ferrero and Andy Roddick broke through in 2003, but Roger Federer’s 16 major titles set a benchmark for him as the greatest and last champion of the New Balls Era.

The Nadal-Djokovic Era

Federer has had more Grand Slam successes than Sampras did, but he did not crowd out most of the players 4-6 years his junior.  This is mainly due to the preternatural motor that Rafael Nadal possesses.  Nadal led a post New Balls wave of players into the elite levels of tennis starting in 2005.  Novak Djokovic broke through in 2007 and early 2008.  Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have all reached at least one major final.  This generation players just now seem to be sinking their collective teeth into the tour.  Federer is the lone hold out from the previous era who is still a plausible threat.

Raonic’s Brood

Still, that does not keep us from looking ahead.  Last week, tennis fans saw Milos Raonic win a title over a top 10 opponent in a tense final.  Milos impressed Pete Sampras during the off season.  Alexandr Dolgopolov was runner-up at another Australian Open tune-up. Bernard Tomic earned Andy Murray’s praise.  Ryan Harrison has some buzz.  It remains to be seen if this next wave will produce a champion of Sampras, Federer or Nadal’s caliber.  This next wave may end up with players more along the lines of Thomas Enqvist.  Perhaps, a tandem of champions similar to Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg will emerge.  I think the window for piling up majors is broader today than it once was because surfaces are much more uniform.  Would Ivan Lendl have more than 8 majors if the Australian Open had been on a slow hard court for his entire career and Wimbledon had been slowed down?  I think so.

However, I also think tennis has become so physically grueling, in large part due to the slower courts, that the youthful breakthrough wins one saw from Mats Wilander, Boris Becker, and Michael Chang are far less likely.  Of the current players in the new wave, only Raonic seems capable at present of making consistent second week runs in majors because he generates so many free points.  I could see Dolgopolov or Tomic pulling an upset of a top gun, but stamina becomes an issue if beating Federer in 5 sets then means playing Nadal or Djokovic.  All of these younger players are developing that physical toughness needed, but by the time it develops and Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are declining it may only leave a 2-4 year window for winning majors.  I don’t mourn for this new generation, but I do think the mountain facing them is steeper than what many previous generations faced.

Post Script – See This Poll

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