5 Rafael Nadal vs. Pablo Andujar – If Andujar is ever going to win against Rafa, this is his chance. Nadal played 2 tough sets and a 3rd set versus Ferrer. Nadal is also seemingly a little rusty. The altitude in Madrid has never been to Rafa’s liking. Still, I don’t think anyone sanely picks an upset here.
6 Tomas Berdych vs. 15 Stanislas Wawrinka – Berdych to this point inb 2013 has outplayed Roger Federer and looks like a top 5 player. Wawrinka is on a serious roll. This is close to a 50-50 match, but I think Warinka is currently playing the best tennis of his career.
Semifinals
1 Serena Williams vs. 7 Sara Errani - Serena seems ripe for an upset, and Errani could do it based upon her runner-up finish at Roland Garros in 2012. Recent form seems to have little impact on how Serena will play in a given situation. I think Williams is close enough to the finish line in Madrid to win this semifinal.
2 Maria Sharapova vs. 16 Ana Ivanovic - Ivanovic has put together some decent results at different times since her brief stint at number one. I hope she gets back to the top five, but I am not going to bank on such a rebound at this stage of her career.
My first distinct tennis memories are matches between Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe in the 1982 Wimbledon men’s championship and the 1984 US Open semifinal. Both were five set thrillers, but I did not start following tennis regularly until Boris Becker won Wimbledon in 1985. French Open matches did not make much of an impression on me until 1987. For that, I must thank Steffi Graf.
1987: Boredom with the Big Two
Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova staged a tight three set French Open final in 1986. At 10 years of age, I was a bit bored by how frequently these two met in big matches. I recall Steffi Graf pushing Navratiolva hard at the 1986 US Open and thinking this is who I will pull for in women’s tennis. Graf beat Navratilova 6-3, 6-2 in Miami as she started 1987 off on a tear. Graf moved to #2 in the rankings pitting Navratilova and Evert against one another in a semifinal rather than a final. Navratilova beat Evert 6-2, 6-2 to reach the final while reversing two consecutive French Open championship losses to Evert. Graf beat another new face in Gabriella Sabatini 6-4, 4-6, 7-5. This set up a match that I hoped would usher in a new queen of women’s tennis and end the dual reigns of Martina and Evert.
Maybe Tiriac had it right – this video feed from the red clay and non-high definition cameras is awful
Half of my wish came true. Graf won her first Grand Slam title by beating Navratilova 6-4, 4-6, 8-6. Graf won in large part because of how error prone and nervy Navratilova was in that match. Graf showed mental fortitude by winning a long third set against a great champion, but this was not a dethroning. Martina would beat Steffi in straight sets to win both the 1987 Wimbledon and US Open titles. It was exciting for me as a young fan to see my favorite player win her first major, but I feel a bit silly looking back at my disdain for the excellence that Navratilova and Evert displayed. Then again I was 10 years old.
1988: Double Bagel
Steffi Graf won the 1988 Australian Open, but beat Evert instead of Navratilova in the final. Graf was ahead on computer points due to playing and winning far more events than her veteran rival, but it was still unclear as to who was the best player on the women’s tour. Graf owned the #1 ranking and reigned in Melbourne and Paris. Martina was the titleholder in London and New York. Navratilova expected to win Paris and said as much. Instead she was shocked by the former #1 junior player Natalia Zvereva. The young Russian put off a Graf Navratilova showdown until Wimbledon 1988 by winning 6-3, 7-6. As shocking as the match was, Graf administered a career altering defeat of Zvereva by winning the championship match 6-0, 6-0 in 32 minutes. Graf now had two legs of the Grand Slam under her belt and the debate about #1 was clearing up to a degree. Her win over Martina in London one month later cleared up any doubts about who the #1 player in tennis was.
My memories of this final all revolve around how quick the match was. I was elated to see Steffi win yet another slam. Zvereva went on to become a highly decorated doubles champion, but this loss seemed to sap the joy out of singles for her for many years. Zvereva saved two match points in her semifinal win and perhaps a big upset followed by a win and a close loss in the French Open semifinal round would have served her better than being demoralized by Graf who was quite invincible that day.
1989: No One Saw It Coming
Steffi Graf won the Golden Slam in 1988. She opened 1989 with a convincing defense of her Australian Open title. Some wondered if she would become bored with tennis due to her dominance. If Graf was going to be beaten in 1989, people figured it would be her contemporary Gabriella Sabatini via a herculean effort. This was not to be as Sabatini lost in the round of 16. Graf played a youngster named Monica Seles in the semifinal round. I remember in the first set thinking how ridiculous it was that Seles was trying to overpower Graf. That strategy seemed about as wise as trying to drown the ocean. Graf won the first set 6-3. In the second set, the player hitting two-handed backhands and forehands (!) did knock Graf out of her comfort zone and took the set 6-3. Steffi’s experience pulled her through in the third set with another 6-3 set. Still, Seles looked like a champion to me.*
Challengers Arise
Graf faced Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario in the final. Graf was taller, had more weapons and seemed like a lock. Sanchez-Vicario kept running balls down. NBC tape-delayed coverage foreshadowed the upset by saying Graf only makes headlines if she loses. However in the age before widespread internet acces, I had no idea who won the match. NBC showed the first set won surprisingly by the Spaniard 7-6. NBC then did a quick summary of the second set won by Graf 6-3. In the final set, I watched as Graf sprayed a number of errors against her never-say-die opponent. I was both dismayed and shocked as Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario pulled one of the upsets of the decade in a 7-6, 3-6, 7-5 win over Steffi Graf.
Attacking the net helped the tireless retriever win the match
This match was not the end for Graf, but Seles attacked Graf’s slice with power. Sanchez-Vicario made jaunts into the net off of Steffi’s backhand as well as drawing errors from her forehand. There was now a book with several chapters on how to play against the invincible champion. Steffi from 1987 through 1989 took me as a fan through a ride of challenging the powers that be, to becoming the lone power in women’s tennis and finally to being dethroned in Paris. Graf would have to wait until 1993 to win the French Open again. It was a great ride as a fan. Steffi also provided a few more French Open memories that I will get to in the coming days.
Tyson losing to Douglas was a lot like Graf losing in this situation
* In early 1990 when everyone was hyping Jennifer Captiati, I kept thinking that Seles was the real story.
I will be sharing some of my favorite French Open memories between now and the start of the 2013 French Open. My first subject is Andre Agassi versus Jim Courier. Once upon a time it was rare to see the same players match-up year after year at slams in men’s events. Jim Courier and Andre Agassi went toe-to-toe in four consecutive French Opens. The two had a great deal of history and at times disliked one another. In 1989, 1990 and 1991 Courier felt he had played second fiddle to Agassi. At their 1992 match in Paris, Agassi seemed unsure of himself as Courier was piling up big wins and holding the number one ranking. Each man helped to usher in an era of taking the ball early and hitting hard. Each man saw his success on tour increase as his game rounded out beyond just blasting away. Courier upped the level of fitness on tour. Agassi’s long career impacted several generations of junior players. Agassi also brought a greater use of weight training into tennis despite initial skepticism about this move. Courier vs. Agassi was a story at Roland Garros over four years. By the end one man had established dominance in this French Open rivalry, but by 1999 the other would complete a career Grand Slam at Roland Garros.
1989 Bollettieri’s Boys
Andre Agassi had a huge 1988. He won six events, finished in the top 5 in the rankings and reached the semifinal round at both Roland Garros and the US Open. Jim Courier was unknown to casual tennis fans. Still, the two had grown up together playing at Nick Bollettieri’s tennis boot camp. Agassi entered the 1989 French Open as a contender. Courier stood in the way of Agassi reaching the round of 16. Both players were from the US, were roughly the same age and tried to take the ball early and smack big forehands. Bollettieri was faced with a choice and sat with Agassi’s camp during their showdown. Courier proceeded to overpower Agassi over two-days. The young Floridian announced his presence on tour by winning 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2. Michael Chang stole Courier’s thunder by winning the event even if Sports Illustrated gave Courier some love at the midpoint of the event. Courier blew a lead in the round of 16 and left Bollettieri’s charge shortly after the event. Courier -1 Agassi – 0
1990 Strength Pays Off
Andre Agassi entered the 1990 French Open as the favorite in the eyes of many because Ivan Lendl was not playing the event and Boris Becker and Stefan Edberg seemed less imposing on red clay than they did on grass. Agassi had also embraced weight training and looked thicker than his 1988 and 1989 editions. The draw pitting Courier and Agassi against one another in the round of 16 was intriguing. It seemed that if anyone would stop Agassi in Paris in 1990 it would be Courier. Becker and Edberg lost in the first round to some no-names named Goran Ivanisevic and Sergi Bruguera. Michael Chang couldn’t beat Andre could he? Maybe Thomas Muster could stop Agassi, but it appeared that Andre was on his way to his first Grand Slam title. Courier was the only guy with the power to maybe stem Agassi’s momentum. The match played out like two heavy hitters trading massive shots in the first set with Courier taking a tiebreak set. Agassi then bullied Courier around the court for the next three sets. Agassi was well inside the baseline and sent Courier running mercilessly from side to side. Agassi won the match 6-7, 6-1, 6-4, 6-0. Andre would beat Michael Chang in a four set quarterfinal and Jonas Svensson in a four set semifinal. He lost to Andres Gomez in, you guessed it, four sets. Agassi – 1 Courier -1
1991 Rain and Pain
If Agassi was favored at the 1990 French Open, he was a huge favorite at the 1991 event. Andre had taken two Grand Slam championship losses in 1990. Agassi was strong, he had experienced some bitter near misses, he had the ability to take the ball early and control rallies on clay. In short, experts felt it was his event to lose. Andre battered his way to his second consecutive final by roughing up Boris Becker 7-5, 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in the semifinal round. Jim Courier reached the final by taking out top seed Stefan Edberg in the quarterfinal round 6-4, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. He beat the never to beard of again Michael Stich 6-2, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 to set up a third Roland Garros meeting with Agaasi.
This match was my favorite of their four French Open clashes. Courier had beaten Agassi at Indian Wells in 1991. He followed that momentum with an Indian Wells title and a title at Key Biscayne to enter the top 10 in the world. Courier had also made a nice showing at the 1991 Australian Open by pushing Stefan Edberg to five tough sets. Agassi was still the favorite as he had won four of their six professional meetings to that point and was seeded fourth to Courier’s ninth. The dynamic of each man growing up together and not liking each other very much was still present.
Agassi took the first set in what looked like a continuation of their 1990 match. Courier was good, but Agassi’s ability to see the ball so well and take the ball so early looked to be too much for Courier. Agassi jumped to an early break lead in the second set. Rain delays and coaching made a big difference in this match. Andre Agassi claimed in his autobiography Open that Bollettieri said nothing during the rain delays. Courier’s coach Jose Higueres, who worked with Michael Chang in 1989, advised his charge to stand further back during serve returns to make sure he placed a deep return of serve and pushed Andre Agassi deeper into the court. Higueres had also worked with Courier on mixing placements and spins and not simply trying hit the ball as hard as possible on every point. Courier managed to win the match 3-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-1, 6-4. Popular perception saw Courier’s fitness regiment, his growing sense of tennis strategy and his professionalism as superior to Agassi’s emphasis on weight training, eating who knows what and Bollettieri inspired blast away mentality. This trope proved to not be completely accurate, but it was how the rivalry was cast over the next two years. Courier -2 Agassi-1
1992 Courier in Command
Both men worked their way to the semifinal round of the 1992 French Open to see the other in his path. Courier followed up his 1991 French Open title with a US Open runner-up finish and 1992 Australian Open title. Courier achieved the #1 ranking and held two Grand Slam titles entering this match. Agassi had yet to win a major and whispers were growing that he might never win a major. Courier struggled a bit with the pressures of being number one in the early portions of 1992, but he was firmly number one after winning three consecutive events entering the 1992 French Open. Courier’s 1992 run to the title included wins over an impressive array of opponents. He beat Andrei Medvedev, Aleberto Mancini, Thomas Muster, Goran Ivanisevic, Andre Agassi and Petr Korda in succession to take the title. Agassi entered this match with a lot of talent, but not a lot of confidence. Courier hammered Agassi 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in a match that failed to live up to the hype. Anyone watching saw a player with a bigger serve, greater fitness, a better grasp of strategy, and a higher level of mental fortitude methodically take apart his opponent. Agassi would of course take his first Grand Slam title one month later at Wimbledon. Courier then beat Agassi in a testy four set US Open quarterfinal in 1992 in a match featuring the two Grand Slam champions to that point in 1992. Courier – 3 Agassi 1
Final Thought
Courier and Agassi are now friends who play exhibitions on a frequent basis. The notions that Courier would be another Jimmy Connors playing deep into his thirties never materialized. Agassi’s superior hand-eye coordination along with his growing sense of tennis strategy and tactics led to him having the longer career of the two. Nick Bollettieri also shed the image that he knew nothing about tennis and could not coach by guiding a myriad of players to success.
I rooted for Courier in all four of these clashes. I was thrilled to see Courier breakthrough in 1989 (I had heard of him prior to this match), to see him rally in 1991 and to see him dominate Agassi in 1992. I also watched in horor as Agassi laid a beating on Courier in 1990. The great thing about a rivalry that produces a lot of matches is that a fan can pick a side and enjoy. I also played junior tennis during the height of this rivalry so I got to see how average players embraced aspects of Agassi and Courier’s games and habits. I have never seen as many baseball caps on a tennis court as I did at the 1991 Joe Creason USTA Southern qualifying event in Louisville, Kentucky that took place at the same time as the 1991 French Open.
Can anyone stop a prepared Nadal on clay? That is a question that has been hounding professional tennis since 2005. There are a few scenarios for how Nadal might lose a match on clay, but these scenarios become even less likely when a match moves to a best of five set format. I think for someone to dethrone Nadal on clay, he will need to be a fitness freak and fighter a la Ferrer, have a return game somewhere along the lines of Murray or Nole’s, and be able to take control of points with massive ground strokes. I don’t see that player on tour right now. The junior ranks are where we are most likely to find a physical specimen who has enough of a willingness to fight to have a chance to dethrone Nadal. I hope that we get to see a young lion push Nadal rather than see injuries lead to the close of Rafa’s clay court dictatorship.
Scenarios for a Nadal Loss During The 2013 European Clay Court Season
Don’t Count on Seeing a lot of This
Being the best player in the world on clay does not preclude one or two losses. Here are some scenarios for Nadal losing matches during this European clay court season.
Novak Djokovic has a great day. If Novak gets into enough of Rafa’s service games, even on clay, he can win matches. Odds: 20 to 35%
Del Potro or Berdych follows the Soderling blueprint. Odds: 15% for a 2 out of 3 set match and 10% or less at Roland Garros.
Federer has a day where he does not miss. Not missing on clay versus Nadal is not something we have seen from Federer. At 31, it is less likely. Odds: 2%
Ferrer or another speedy baseliner takes advantage of a health ailment a la Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2008. Odds: 10% or Less
Nadal loses after a long layoff. We saw this happen in Chile earlier this year. The problem for the tour is that Rafa’s team are not fools. He played the Latin American clay court circuit to avoid rust during the European clay court season. Even a rusty Nadal put together an impressive run in Latin America. Odds: N/A as he is not rusty
Blue Clay – Nadal hated blue clay and lost on it last year. Odds: N/A blue clay is no longer a part of the tour
A big server such as Isner or Raonic wins a match with a lot of tiebreaks. This could happen in a two out of three set scenario. It is hard for me to see Nadal lose 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 at Roland Garros. Someone would have to serve out of his mind to pull this strategy off for three sets versus Nadal. Odds: 5 to 10%
A Few Reasons for Nadal’s Clay Court Success
An aggressive game that has a high margin for error. Nadal’s shots aggressively beat up his opponents. Yet, he makes few errors. It is a nice combination that few can achieve.
Fitness and Mental Fight: Nadal will not give in, just ask Coria or Federer about 5 set matches on clay. Despite a history of injuries and knee issues, Nadal seems to have a high energy level during individual matches or tournaments. He may pay the price months later, but that fact does not help people win matches against him in the short term.
His left-handedness is an edge. Most players work their opponent’s backhand. Playing Nadal means reversing the flow of shots one hits 90% of the time. Hitting into Nadal’s forehand is a poor idea. This is especially true on clay.
Movement – Nadal not only plays with a high margin for error, but he can stay in points in which he is not dictating. This forces many players to try for even bigger shots or even more extreme angles. That only ratchets up their error totals and mental duress.
Soft Courts: Nadal loves to compete and concentrates like no other on tour. Clay courts allow for him to utilize these skills with a minimal level of impact on his knees and feet. Rafa has tendonitis and has had two stress fractures in his feet. Clay does not prevent tweaking these conditions, but it minimizes their impact allowing for his competitive spirit and preternatural focus to be more or less uninterrupted by physical distress.
This match is what every tennis fan has been wanting since the conclusion of the 2012 Australian Open. Nadal pushed Djokovic for nearly 6 hours (6 hours!) in Melbourne. Can Rafa reverse the tide of 3 consecutive Grand Slam final losses to Novak? If Monte Carlo and Rome’s results are to be taken seriously, the answer is yes. If Nadal’s history in Paris is considered, the answer is yes. In fact, Nadal is the clear favorite in this match despite Nole’s 27 consecutive Grand Slam match wins and 3-0 record versus Rafa in slams during that stretch.
History: Rafa vs. Borg & Nole vs. Laver
Eclipsed? A commentator on NBC mentioned Rafa having a chance to eclipse Bjorn Borg if he wins the French Open. This seems kind of like saying a Siberian Tiger eclipses a Bengal Tiger in size. Still, Nadal owning the most French Open crowns is a unique opportunity for Rafa.
I think Novak Djokovic being the reigning champion at all 4 majors would be there greatest accomplishment in tennis history. That is all Nole has on the line during the final.
Beyond all of this, Novak can complete a career Grand Slam. Novak has joined Rod Laver and Andre Agassi for stringing together 4 consecutive Grand Slam finals. Rafael Nadal is in sole possession of the 3rd best streak of Grand Slam finals with 5 consecutive. Roger Federer still owns the best streak of 10 and second best streak of 8 consecutive Grand Slam finals.
Why Novak Could Win: Does He Have an Oxygen Destroyer?
I tweeted this at the outset of the French Open, ”Beating Nadal on clay is like beating Godzilla. Sure someone might invent an oxygen destroyer, but the odds are against it.” If anyone has the tennis equivalent of an oxygen destroyer it is Novak. I think Nole can win if he serves bigger than Rafa and then is willing to pay the price and play a lot of long points. The reason I say this is that Novak is still the best returner of serve in the world. This is an edge he could exploit and break serve often enough to win the match.
Why Rafa Could Win: Clay Court GOAT
I am not sure I need to answer this. Rafa destroyed Juan Monaco who is a top flight clay court player. Rafa dominated David Ferrer the #6 player in the world. Rafa is dismantling people on clay this year. He is also the greatest clay court player of all time.
Who Wins?
I am going out on a limb here and picking Novak Djokovic. If he is willing to pay the price, he can win this match. I think Novak has been pointing toward this opportunity since winning the Australian Open. I am not going to read anything into Novak’s 2012 losses to Andy Murray and John Isner. I think Rafa soundly beat Novak in Monte Carlo and Rome. My pick is based upon the idea that Novak knew he only has one clay court war in his body. I think he has saved it for this match. That does not mean Novak will win, but I do think this will be more of a war than Rome or Monte Carlo were. Logic says that Rafa wins, but I am a nut for tennis history and may be clouded by my desire for seeing something sublime occur.
I will have both of these up later today. As an aside, my 23 month old son is quite captivated by tennis. He is mimicking the Sharapova and Errani as I type.
I don’t think either man has played near his A level during this event. To me, that means the player who is most likely to raise his game is the player who will win. Novak Djokovic is under pressure attempting to complete the Nole Slam. Roger Federer twice reached the French Open final when holding the other 3 slams. Rafael Nadal lost in the 2011 Australian Open quarterfinal round while holding the other 3 slams. Pete Sampras lost in the 1994 French Open quarterfinal round when holding the other 3 slams. This would be the greatest single achievement in men’s tennis history given the radical surface differences that have existed since 1978 and the increasingly physical nature of professional tennis. The fact that Roger beat Novak at this stage of the French Open last year means Novak could lose this match. I think this takes some pressure off of the Serb. My conclusion is Novak will play with less pressure and hence play well enough to advance.
Djokovic should advance
My Pick – Novak Djokovic in 4 Sets
2 Rafael Nadal vs. 6 David Ferrer
Rafael Nadal’s complete dominance in Paris makes this section shorter than it should be. David Ferrer deserves great credit for preventing Andy Murray from reaching his 6th consecutive Grand Slam semifinal. Ferrer is a great clay court player who deserves to play in the final weekend of the French Open. Throw in Ferrer and Federer each being 30 years old, and my 36 year old self is happy to think that age does not preclude great tennis. Ferrer played Rafa tough in Barcelona. Still, Rafa is almost certain to advance in this match. Both men are fit and compete like few in tennis have. Ferrer just does not have enough weapons to win this match. When Ferrer was close versus Rafa, like he was in Barcelona, he also tightened up mentally.
My Men’s Picks are Currently Standing at a Healthy 20 correct -4 incorrect
Quarterfinals
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (5) – I like Novak to win in an entertaining match. I don’t expect this to be super close, but I could see this match go four sets.
Roger Federer (3) vs. Juan Martin del Potro -Roger’s 32 consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances is incredible. Imagine 8 years of slams without missing the final 8. Still, his form in Paris has not been great. If Roger plays at the level he has in his previous three matches, JMDP has a great chance to win. Also, Delpo is playing quite well on clay this year. JMDP owes Roger one for the French Open 2009 (Federer owes JMDP for the US Open 2009 as each won one the other should have). Roger has been dominant versus JMDP this year so this is a risky pick. Still, I think Federer has yet to find anything close to his top gear in Paris, and if that continues his tournament ends.
My Women’s Picks have been a very mediocre 4-4. I am at coin flip levels of accuracy. Maybe today I can rise to tic-tac-toe playing chicken levels.
Samantha Stosur (6) vs. Dominika Cibulkova (15)- After the 2011 US Open was in the books, I said Stosur would be the favorite at the 2012 French Open. That is not the case at the moment, but I think Stosur has a slight edge in this match. Stosur also may feel she has unfinished business in Paris after her flat performance in the 2010 championship match.
Angelique Kerber (10) vs. Sara Errani (21) – I am going with Errani to advance. I realize these two picks could easily send my women’s prediction rate below .500 again.
