3Victoria Azarenka vs. 7Sara Errani - Based on clay court form, I’d take Errani, but I think the 2013 Australian Open champion and the World #1 are on a collision course. Azarenka in 2 close sets is my pick.
Men’s Semifinal Matches
2Roger Federer vs. Benoit Paire - Federer beat Paire easily in Madrid. I think this match will be closer, but Roger should advance in 2 close sets.
5Rafael Nadal vs. 6Tomas Berdych - This is the match of the day. Nadal should win. Still, Nadal has lost two matches on clay in 2013 and has dropped 2 sets to Ferrer and 1 set to Gulbis over the past two events. I have been bullish on Berdych’s form throughout 2013. I think Nadal will win in straight sets, but if any of these four matches is going to be an gem it is this one.
5 Rafael Nadal vs. Pablo Andujar – If Andujar is ever going to win against Rafa, this is his chance. Nadal played 2 tough sets and a 3rd set versus Ferrer. Nadal is also seemingly a little rusty. The altitude in Madrid has never been to Rafa’s liking. Still, I don’t think anyone sanely picks an upset here.
6 Tomas Berdych vs. 15 Stanislas Wawrinka – Berdych to this point inb 2013 has outplayed Roger Federer and looks like a top 5 player. Wawrinka is on a serious roll. This is close to a 50-50 match, but I think Warinka is currently playing the best tennis of his career.
Semifinals
1 Serena Williams vs. 7 Sara Errani - Serena seems ripe for an upset, and Errani could do it based upon her runner-up finish at Roland Garros in 2012. Recent form seems to have little impact on how Serena will play in a given situation. I think Williams is close enough to the finish line in Madrid to win this semifinal.
2 Maria Sharapova vs. 16 Ana Ivanovic - Ivanovic has put together some decent results at different times since her brief stint at number one. I hope she gets back to the top five, but I am not going to bank on such a rebound at this stage of her career.
Quarterfinals Kei Nishikori (14) vs. Pablo Andujar - A great match for tennis lovers, but I think Andujar will be more fresh and as I said earlier I love Pablo’s game.
Andy Murray (3) vs. Tomas Berdych (6) – I think clay helps Berdych here. He can hit through the court whereas Murray’s shots may sit up more.
David Ferrer (4) vs. Rafael Nadal (5) – Numero uno en Espana es Rafa! This will be closer than Acapulco was though.
Roger Federer vs. Kei Nishikori - Federer has had a mediocre 2013 by his standards. He also has points to defend. I expect Roger to advance, but a loss would not be shocking.
Andy Murray vs. Gilles Simon - In 2008, Simon looked like Murray’s mini-me. This could go either way on clay. I still think Murray advances.
David Ferrer vs. Tommy Haas - A rematch of their Miami semifinal. Haas just won a tournament, but Ferrer on clay in Spain has to be the pick.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Fernando Verdasco - My first upset pick for May 9th’s slate of matches. Tsonga nearly beat Nole at Roland Garros last year and pushed Rafa in Monte Carlo this year. Still, clay favors Verdasco who needs a signature win.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Grigor Dimitrov - This match is worth the price of admission. Wawrinka just won a tournament beating #4 David Ferrer in the final. Dimitrov took a set off of Rafa at Monte Carlo and beat Djokovic in Madrid. I think Wawrinka’s momentum helps him hold off Dimitrov, but the youngster is making waves.
1. Novak Djokovic – Nole is number one, but he can hear footsteps behind him right now.
2. Rafael Nadal - 3 consecutive tournament titles, including his first hard court title in over 2 years, have Rafa rising. Change since last Ranking +1
3. Andy Murray - This Indian Wells was better than his 2012 and 2011 outings. Murray needs to push back against the idea of Nole and Rafa reprising their 2011 two man show. Miami would be a good place for Murray to reassert himself since he trains there and since the pending clay court season is unlikely to help Murray. Change since last ranking – 1
4. Tomas Berdych - The Big Czech came up short versus Nadal, but his Indian Wells and Dubai showings have me thinking he is close to the top players. He may not be able to bridge that gap, but he is trying to bridge it. Change since last ranking + 2
5. Roger Federer – Roger is my favorite player of all time. He is 7 years past his prime of 2006 and is still ranked #2. My eyes are not lying that 2013 has not been his best outing. Skipping Miami and Monte Carlo makes me think Roger is saving his reserves for the biggest prizes in tennis. Maybe the break will help as he has not seemed like himself in 2013. Change since last ranking – 1
6. Juan Martin del Potro - Had he won Indian Wells, JMDP would be #4 and Berdych #5. Beating Murray and Djokovic back-to-back is a huge confidence builder. Change since last ranking +3
7. David Ferrer – He has a Grand Slam semifinal and a 250 point title to his name in 2013. Still, it seems like JMDP and Berdych have passed him. Change since last ranking – 2
8. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Holding steady
9. Richard Gasquet – With two titles under his belt in 2013, Gasquet is poised for a strong year. Still, he lacks the heft of Berdych or the consistency of Ferrer. Change since last ranking -2
10.Milos Raonic - Milos beat then #10 Marin Cilic so he takes his spot. Change since last ranking – unranked
[5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Leonardo Mayer (ARG) – Rafa rolls
Ivan Dodig (CRO) v [2] Roger Federer (SUI) – Federer wins
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) v [18] Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) – Call me nostalgic, but I think Rusty wins unless Stan returns well.
Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) v Kevin Anderson (RSA) – The big server beats the veteran.
[20] Andreas Seppi (ITA) v [Q] Ernests Gulbis (LAT) – Gulbis is en feugo
[6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) v [27] Florian Mayer (GER) – Berdych is one to watch in 2013.
[24] Jerzy Janowicz (POL) v [10] Richard Gasquet (FRA) – This is a tough one to call. Jerzy has a massive serve (and a massive temper). Gasquet has won two events in 2013. I’ll take Gasquet and go against my previous policy of always picking against Gasquet.
[13] Gilles Simon (FRA) v Benoit Paire (FRA) – Simon wins a French Civil War.
David Ferrer (4) vs. Nicolas Almagro (10) – David Ferrer could reach his 3rd slam semifinal in the past 52 weeks. He led the tour with 7 titles in 2012. He also picked up his first 1000 series title after adding French and US Open semifinal runs to his career achievements. Ferrer is 12-0 vs. Almagro. 12-0! Almagro has the shots to win this match, but consistency, fitness and confidence should take Ferrer to the Final Four. If Almagro does win, he can dust of Vitas’ old line and say, “No one beats Almagro 13 times in a row!”
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Tomas Berdych (5) – Berdych’s biggest career wins came at the 2010 Wimbledon championships where he beat Roger Federer in the quarterfinal round and Novak Djokovic in the semifinal round. Berdych can win a big match versus Djokovic. Berdych also helpd the Czech Republic win the 2012 Davis Cup. Djokovic just played a draining 5 hour match. It all sounds like a good blueprint for an upset. I am not buying though. Berdych does have the ability to hit through the court on any surface, but this surface is ideally suited to Djokovic’s game. Novak recovered from a brutal semifinal versus Andy Murray to win the most brutal match I have ever seen versus Nadal in last year’s Australian Open final. Stanislas Wawrinka does not play the grinding style of Murray. Novak should be fresh enough to win and advance.
Predicted Winners in BOLD – This is a Great Slate of Matches
Singles – Third Round
[1] N Djokovic (SRB) v [31] R Stepanek (CZE) – Stepanek has been a a steady and tricky player for a long time. Still, Nole is a 3 time champion playing on a surface that is perfect for his game. Nole should win pretty easily.
[4] D Ferrer (ESP) v [28] M Baghdatis (CYP) – Ferrer has been a machine as of late. Baghdatis has the talent, power and hands to pull off an upset, but Ferrer just does not seem to lose to anyone outside of the top 7 in the world.
[26] J Melzer (AUT) v [5] T Berdych (CZE) – Another slight chance for an upset, but Berdych should win.
[32] J Benneteau (FRA) v [8] J Tipsarevic (SRB) – Tipsy for the win.
[10] N Almagro (ESP) v [24] J Janowicz (POL) – The feel good story of 2012 becomes menacing early in 2013. I think Almagro wins, but if Jerzy gets to the round of 16 on a slowish hard court under 3 out of 5 set conditions, he will be a guy who could be on the move in a big way.
[20] S Querrey (USA) v [15] S Wawrinka (SUI) – Sam Querrey has made a remarkable recovery in terms of his ranking and has posted some nice wins since returning to tour. This is close to a 50-50 match, but I think Stan is less likely to throw out a bad match at this stage of things.
E Donskoy (RUS) v [16] K Nishikori (JPN) – A possible upset
K Anderson (RSA) v [22] F Verdasco (ESP) – I think Hot Sauce loses here. I have to pick at least one upset.
