ROD LAVER ARENA

[4] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) vs [17] Roger Federer (SUI)

 Stan Wawrinka ended 2016 with a bit of a wobble after winning the US Open in September.  Roger Federer missed the final 6 months of the 2016 season.  I did not expect either man to be in the semifinal, but I am only mildly surprised by their appearances in the final four.  Stan is a a guy who really benefits from a 3 of 5 set format as he plays a bit like a boxer who lands a lot of body shots.  Federer is Federer.  On paper, I think Stan should win this match in 4 to 5 sets unless Roger holds serve easily.  Historically and psychologically, Federer has generally had an edge when playing Stan.  Therefore, I am torn.  Neither player is likely to shock the other with something new or unexpected.  SABR has not been seen much lately, but it played a role in Roger getting a key 1st set break versus Wawrinka in their 2015 US Open semifinal match.  

My Prediction: Stan Wawrinka d. Roger Federer 6-4, 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 (or flip a coin maybe)

A 2014 rematch is close to becoming a reality