Samantha Stosur versus Serena Williams

Both players are among the most powerful on the women’s tour.  Stosur beat Serena at the 2010 French Open.  I can give a lot of reasons to try to make this sound like a close match on paper, but to be honest Serena Williams looks like a heavy favorite.  Here is a more formal look at the match:

Serve

Each player is among the top 5 servers in the WTA.  I think Serena gets the edge as hitting big serves under pressure is an area in which Williams has a wealth of experience.

Fitness

Serena has been vulnerable here in the past.  I think she has gotten herself into good shape since Wimbledon ended.  Stosur is also quite fit.  I doubt either player loses due to lack of conditioning.

Ground Strokes

Stosur can match Serena’s power here.  However, I think Serena is a more natural mover and that combination of power and court coverage gives and edge to Serena.

Nerve

Sam Stosur has the power and fitness to play with Serena.  If Stosur comes out loose and looking to enjoy a great opportunity, the Aussie can win.  She still might lose if she plays in this manner.  Serena has typically played extremely well under pressure.  Stosur looked tight at the 2010 French Open.  I think if Stosur learns from how loose and joyful Francesca Schiavone was in their French Open final, she can push Serena and maybe pull the upset.  If Stosur plays a nervous first set, the match is likely over before it even starts.

Final Verdict

Serena Williams has at least an 80% chance of winning today.