Olympic Years

Most tennis fans can remember the result of Wimbledon 2008.  Remember 2008, the year of the last Summer Olympic Games?  Roger Federer had a tough June and July in 2008.  He was throttled by Rafael Nadal in Paris.  Going into a highly anticipated Wimbledon final due to the 5 set thriller of 2007, Roger Federer needed to beat Nadal to hold onto the #1 ranking for the foreseeable future and stem the notion of decline.  The match was perhaps the greatest ever, but Nadal prevailed 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 9-7.  Federer looked deeply wounded.  His losses in Canada and Cincinnati prior to the Summer Games seemed to confirm his decline.  Federer entered the 2008 Olympics looking wobbly.  Here we are 4 years later, and Federer enters the Olympic games with the most momentum?  4 years is an eternity in tennis.  How exactly is Roger still more or less Roger?

More Recent Bounce Backs

Okay, we all know 2008 turned out pretty well for Roger after all.  He lost to James Blake in Beijing, but did win  gold in doubles.  Then, Roger went to New York and won his 5th consecutive US Open title.  2009 went well too.   Sure, Roger lost another 5 set slam final to Rafa and cried on Rod Laver’s shoulder.  Of course, he also lost a commanding early lead to Juan Martin del Potro and ended up losing a 5 set tilt in New York.  However, Roger won Madrid, won the French Open, won Wimbledon and won Cincinnati to finish 2009 #1.

What about losing the 2010 US Open semifinal to Novak Djokovic after failing to convert match points?  What about losing a 2 set to love lead over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Wimbledon 2011?  What about losing a 2 set lead and failing to convert match points against Novak Djokovic on his own serve at the 2011 US Open?  What about losing another Australian Open match to Rafael Nadal in 2012?  What about losing all 5 sets on clay vs. Novak Djokovic in Rome and in Paris this year?  What about losing a set 7-5 to Djokovic despite breaking Novak 3 (three!) times?

Didn’t Roger look old?  Didn’t Roger look nervy?  Didn’t he look like a man who was a distant 3rd in the world?   He even lost to 34 year old Tommy Haas in straight sets on grass at Halle.

Roger’s best days (2004-2007) may be far behind him, but his cool demeanor and confidence at Wimbledon prove that all of those losses have not exactly shattered his confidence.  Rather, Roger seems to forget these setbacks or at least view them as though he bets in the long run that he can win more often than the guy who just bested him can.  My evidence for thinking this way lies in Roger having just avenged that shaky match in Paris vs. Djokovic and having just evened his career head-to-head with Andy Murray at 8-8.

Federer’s Long View of Time

When Federer lost at the 2008 Wimbledon Championships, he owned 12 major titles.  Peter Bodo claimed that winning 2 more slams would be harder than winning the previous 12 as he tried to tie Sampras’ record.  If getting to 14 was that difficult, how difficult is getting to 17?  Federer seems to view history more patiently than most.  Outside of his back, Federer has been remarkably healthy.  If a player beats him or passes him in the rankings, Federer seems to be confident that he can keep playing at a high level while also doubting if his would be conquerer can maintain such a high level.  Nole and Rafa killed each other at the 2011 US Open final.  Neither won a tournament for the rest of 2011.  They recharged and killed each other for almost 6 hours in Melbourne in what I consider to be the greatest tennis match ever (sorry Mr. Wertheim).

Federer who lost to Nadal in Oz then beats Nadal at Indian Wells.  Rafa and Nole don’t like blue clay; Federer wins in Madrid.    Nole got to experience in this clay season what Roger did in 2006, 2007 and 2008 – namely losing to Nadal on multiple occasions.  Roger beats a less confident Nole in the Wimbledon semifinals.   Roger seems a bit like Clint Eastwood during a training scene in Heartbreak Ridge.  Sure a few recruits might sprint in front of him, but he is going to keep a nice steady fast pace and eventually pass them down the road.

The Human Card Trick or The Federer Casino 

Groundhog Day?

After the Australian Open ended in February, Roger Federer might be the only person in the tennis world who would have believed being told that he’d enter the Olympics as the top seed.  Federer, despite being nearly 31, seems to be able to maintain a certain level of play more predictably than anyone else on tour (maybe David Ferrer is also equally consistent, but his ceiling is lower than Roger’s).  In 2012 on their best days, both Nole and Rafa are better than Roger under most conditions.  They simply have slightly fewer good days than Roger does.  Roger probably gets a lot of satisfaction out of being more consistent than guys 4 – 6 years his junior.  He can play with less pressure because he’s not supposed to be winning so much at this age.  He can play with grit and apply pressure to people who think they should be beating the graybeard of tennis.

Peter Bodo once called Roger Federer the human card trick.  Casinos make money based on what is known as the house edge.  Roger Federer’s post-2007 act is a lot like the house edge.*  He may not win 90% of the time, but by going to the quarters or further at all of the big events (33 and counting), his odds are likely to produce trophies over time.  His undaunted confidence that in the long run things will work out in his favor makes Roger Federer one of the most mentally tough players of all time.