Sharapova’s Revival

A more joyous reaction is hard to find

Maria Sharapova entered the Grand Slam winners’ circle again last year when she won the title at Roland Garros. She recovered from shoulder and serve problems to build toward that victory.  Sharapova reached the 2011 French Open semifinal and 2012 Australian Open final.  She absorbed one-sided losses, but kept pushing toward victory.  Sharapova’s joy at winning a major on clay was moving.  Since that time, Maria has continued to post strong results such as a Silver Medal and US Open semifinal appearance in 2012 and an Australian Open semifinal appearance in 2013.  She is back in the French Open final ready to defend her most unlikely Grand Slam title.  She just won back-to-back nerve testing matches to get to this point.  She now faces a task that seems beyond daunting.

Serena’s Turning Point

Serena Williams lost in the first round at the French Open last year.  It was a shocking defeat due to her winning streak entering the event.  Serena seemed to be a champion who either melted down at key moments of the US Open or who lost to inferior players on clay.  A noted tennis journalist described her 2012 Roland Garros performance as resembling a golfer with the yips.  After that loss, Serena won Wimbledon in singles and doubles, won gold medals in singles and doubles (destroying Sharapova in the gold medal match) and winning the US Open in singles.  Were it not for rolling her ankle in Melbourne she might be playing for a second “Serena Slam” tomorrow.  Serena is number 1 in the world playing the clear number 2 who is also the defending champion.  Serena could win her second overall French Open title and first French Open title in over 1 decade.

Head-to-Head

Maria Sharapova is 2-13 versus Serena Williams including a 12 match losing streak.  Sharapova has not beaten Serena since 2004.  The losses have come at big venues with a lot at stake.  Many of the matches have been terribly one-sided.  Even at Miami earlier this year when Sharapova won her first set off of Serena since 2008 ended in a third set bagel.  These numbers make me think that unless Serena is less than 100% physically speaking that she will win this match even if Sharapova has a great stretch.

Why the Disparity?

Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova are the two best players in the world right now.  Sharapova generally wins by taking control of a point early with either a big return or powerful serve.  Once Sharapova controls a point footwork is less about reacting than stepping into her preferred shots.  Serena disrupts this game plan in two ways.  First, Serena serves and returns big and takes control of points.  She forces Sharapova to react and play defensive tennis far more often than the Russian would like to.  Sharapova is quite tall and struggles with mobility, footwork and changing directions.  Secondly, Serena is a great mover with great reflexes.  If Sharapova gets control of a point and hits a big shot, Serena can often react in such a way as to drive Sharapova out of a commanding position on the court to a neutral or defensive position in a given point.  Serena does both of these things often enough that Maria struggles mightily in their matches.  For these reasons, my prediction is not going to shock anyone.

My Pick

Serena Williams d. Maria Sharapova 6-3, 6-1