Can Raonic Win?

Milos can win this match, but it is a long shot that he does.  Not because he lacks weapons, but because Rafael Nadal is playing as well as I have seen him play since 2010.   Nadal is moving well, he is showing touch at the net, and of course he has his incredible grinding game.  Here is what needs to happen for Raonic to win:

1. He serves big.  If Raonic can hold serve easily he can pressure Nadal’s and at worst play a tiebreak set a la Jerzy Janowicz.
2. The crowd must be a Davis Cup type environment.  Andy Murray benefitted from a rabid crowd at the 2012 Olympic Games and at the 2013 Wimbledon championships.
3. He hits big returns to take control of points early.  Taking control of points does not assure winning the point vs. Nadal, but if Rafa is dictating Milos is in deep trouble.
4. The good news is that Milos did not play his best tennis in the semifinal round so maybe he is due for a big day.

All of this adds up to me thinking that Rafa wins 7-5, 6-3.  I will say for the sake of Canada I hope Raonic does win.  I just am not confident that it will turn out that way.