Grigor Dimitrov vs. Rafael Nadal

Rafa has had some strange results on clay this year.  Still, title in Madrid and Rio make Rafa the most successful player on dirt to this point in 2014.  Rafa’s dominance is such that losing sets to Simon, Youzhny and Murray appear to many as signs of weakness.  I think Rafa plays better with a lot of match play.  Kei Nishikori had him in trouble in Madrid.  Losing sets since then may look troubling, but I think the opposite is true.  Rafa’s confidence is building.  I am not sure how he will match-up with Nole if that comes to pass, but I think Dimitrov is running into Nadal at the wrong time.

I will not say Dimitrov has no chance.  Dimitrov has won 3 titles in the past 52 weeks.  He pushed Rafa in Melbourne.  Also, at 6’3″ his one-handed backhand holds up nicely versus Rafa.  Dimitrov has variety and young legs.  He has tools that can bother Nadal.  However, to win I think he will have to serve exceptionally well. On clay, Rafa can win in the long-run in the same way erosion wins in the long-run. Dimitrov will need his share of easy points through either service winners/aces or easy 1-2 combinations of big serves setting up a big groundstroke.  He could do this for 2 or 3 sets, but my gut and head say that Nadal is in good enough form that this won’t happen for a long enough period in the match for an upset to occur.

My Prediction: Nadal d. Dimitrov 4-6, 6-3, 6-3