The 8 time champion and the clay court GOAT faces an interesting opponent in the semifinal. Andy Murray has tools that could/should make him hard to beat on clay.  Murray is fit, he is one of the fastest players on tour and he has one of the top service returns on tour.  The best analog I can offer to Murray is to look at Michael Chang’s 1995 upset of two-time defending champion Sergi Bruguera in the semifinal round.  Chang was not as natural on clay courts as Burguera, but he made his foot speed and return of serve the key factors in that match.  Equipment and ball striking has changed a lot since 1995, but I think Murray using an updated version of Chang’s formula has a chance at pulling a major upset.

Murray Was Close in Rome; Why Not Paris?

Andy Murray raced through a first set versus Nadal in Rome, Nadal took the second, and Murray led by a break in the third set before Nadal rallied to win 1-6, 6-3, 7-5.  Murray has to draw some confidence from that encounter.  He has a chance on clay.  The two have only played once since Murray broke through and took the 2012 Gold Medal and US Open titles. Murray is in a different spot mentally than he was for all but one of their head-to-head matches.

For Murray to Win

Murray does have a chance to win, but winning a three out of five set match in Rafa’s backyard will require drawing an inside straight.  Murray will have to pressure Rafa’s serve throughout the match, he will have to steal some points with defensive tennis, but also keep Nadal on the defensive as often as possible.

My Prediction

I think Murray will execute that game plan pretty well.  Hence, I do not see this being a straight set win for Nadal.  However, I think Nadal will prevail.  Nadal will give Andy such a narrow margin of what can work that over time my guess is Murray won’t be quite sharp enough to win the match.  Rafael Nadal d. Andy Murray 4-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4