If Federer is sharp, expect something like this.  If Fed plays like he did in the quarters, expect Cilic to win.

Marin Cilic enters this US Open semifinal as a guy who has to be considered a dark horse to win the US Open. He lost to Novak Djokovic in 5 sets at Wimbledon and lost an incredibly tight 3 set match to Roger Federer in Toronto.  He has to believe he can beat his two biggest obstacles for the title.  Roger Federer had the best lead in to the US Open by finishing 9-1 in Toronto and Cincinnati.  With 5 more victories in NY as well as his title in Halle and runner-up finish at Wimbledon, Federer is in the midst of a 24-2 post Roland Garros boom.

Roger Federer will have to play better than he did versus Gael Monfils to win this match.  Marin Cilic is taking care of his serve better than at any point in his career.  The guidance of Goran Ivanisevic is part of Marin’s resurgence.  Federer has also benefitted from a new coach as Stefan Edberg has seen Roger win 3 titles in 2014 and also add 5 runner-up finishes.  Federer’s increased willingness in 2014 to either sneak into the net or try to end a point at the net after a big shot has helped him.

This match will come down to whether or not Cilic can break Federer’s serve.  Monfils broke Federer 4 times in the first 4 sets of their quarterfinal match.  If Cilic does that, he will likely be in the US Open final.  If Roger can take care of his serve, his experience should make a big difference in both tiebreaks and sets that reach 4-4 or 5-5.

Prediction: Roger Federer d. Marin Cilic 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4