Odds

If someone looked at the draw and picked this final, I want to have you pick some lottery numbers for me.  Kei Nishikori had established himself as a dangerous if fragile player in 2014 after being seen largely as a potentially good player.  Kei beat Roger Federer in the Miami quarterfinal round only to withdraw before the semifinal round.  He then reached the Madrid final and was up a set and a break on Rafael Nadal.  Then he was injured and was eventually not able to finish the match.  Nishikori did not do much after Madrid, but in New York he’s beaten Milos Raonic, 2014 Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka, and world #1 and 2014 Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic to earn his first Grand Slam final.

Marin Cilic beat Andy Murray at the US Open in 2009 and then upset Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Roddick to reach the semifinal round of the 2010 Australian Open.  Cilic never followed up on those results in a meaningful way.  He was barred from the tour for an odd PED suspension that I still don’t quite understand.  Cilic won some smaller events and reached the Wimbledon quarterfinal round this year pushing the eventual champion Novak Djokovic to 5 sets.  Cilic played Federer tough in Toronto and then proved that Toronto is not New York by storming into the final round.

The Key – Forward or Back

Kei Nishikori’s ability to take the ball early and use great racquet head speed to punish shots allows for him to beat just about anyone.  Players need time, and when Kei is playing well he robs time from his opponent.  If the 6’6″ Marin Cilic can hit his serves the way he did versus Federer as well as hit heavy ground strokes, he can likely push Nishikori back behind the baseline often enough to win the match.  If the 5’10” Nishikori can hold his ground and take the ball early more often than not, he will likely win the match.  I think watching court positioning will be the best indicator of victory.  Of course, Marin could bomb aces and service winners and hold serve and force tiebreak coin flips for sets even if Nishikori is able to hug the baseline.

Heavy Weight vs. Middle Weight

Cilic looked too big, too strong and too fast for Roger Federer.  If Cilic moves well, I think his strength and leverage advantage will be palpable.  Cilic should also be able to hold serve more easily than Kei.  Cilic moves better than Raonic, but Wawrinka had many of these same advantages versus Nishikori and lost in 5 great sets.  Still, I think Cilic has more paths to victory than Kei does.  That makes him a very slight favorite.

Prediction: Marin Cilic d. Kei Nishikori 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4 

Post Script – One of them Could Freeze

In most recent Grand Slam finals, at least one finalist has been in a championship match before.  Marat Safin beating Lleyton Hewitt in 2005 was the last major final without Federer, Nadal or Djokovic making up one (or both) of the finalists.  Hewitt and Safin had been in slam finals prior to that match.  Granted the Nadal-Puerta 2005 Roland Garros final was between two-first time finalists, but Nadal had won multiple Masters 1000 clay court titles and beaten #1 seed Federer in the semifinal prior to his first Grand Slam final.  I hope neither freezes up.  This could be a good or great match, but if one player fails to show up mentally this will be viewed as a dud.