Serena Williams has had a nice 2014 campaign outside of the Grand Slam events.  Serena has reached the final 8 or better at 1 major this year, the US Open.  Her losses seemed to stem from a two pronged attack: first an opponent playing well enough to pressure Serena and second Serena tightening up mentally and making a lot of errors.  Can Caroline Wozniacki play well enough to make Serena’s self-doubt a factor?  Yes.  The two played twice recently and both matches were close 3 set battles won by Serena.  Here is where I see a difference.  Serena won Stanford and Cincinnati.  The crowd in NY has always supported Serena.  I think her mental game is as strong as it has been all year.  That makes Serena the clear favorite, but does that mean she will win?

Caroline’s Chance

Caroline Wozniacki has reached her second Grand Slam final this week.  Wozniacki was plagued at times with questions about her #1 ranking without corresponding Grand Slam success.  That pressure is not a part of today’s match.  Wozniacki is an excellent athlete who tracks down balls and rarely gets tired.  Her consistency and speed should help her to draw errors from Serena.  Wozniacki will have to find ways to pressure Serena beyond just getting the ball back.  If Wozniacki can either keep her court positioning close to the baseline or make the occasional sneak attack at the net, she might muster enough offense to compliment her defensive skills and win this match.

Serena’s Six?

Serena Williams’ 17 majors are divided into 5 titles each in Melbourne, London and New York and two titles in Paris.  If Serena wins today, she will have 18 majors in singles tying Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert. She will also have won the 1999 US Open and 2014 US Open displaying a ridiculous level of longevity at this event.  Sampras impressively won the 1990 and 2002 US Opens to offer a comparison.  Serena’s game is a combination of power and movement that allows for her to transition from defense to offense when necessary as well as to dictate most of the time.  Serena’s serve and return of serve often place her in control of most points.  Serena should win today just as she did in their two matches this summer, but will she?

Prediction

In my head, I have gone back and forth on this match since Friday.  Wozniacki has a feeling of destiny about her, but I am not a big believer in destiny.  Serena, if she plays well, has an advantage in this match.  I think Serena is playing well.  Therefore, my prediction is that Serena Williams d. Caroline Wozniacki 7-5, 6-3.