[3] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs. [6] Milos Raonic (CAN)

This is Rafa’s biggest match of 2015 since he faced Berdych in Melbourne.  Nadal did win Buenos Aires, but he did not face a murderer’s row of opponents.  Rafa should win just about any 250 level event he enters on clay.  His game versus higher ranked players and on hard courts is still a bit of an unknown.  We’ll know more after this match tomorrow.  Nadal fans will not be happy with my thought that if Milos holds his nerve he will also hold his serve in Indian Wells.  I think Rafa is not quite back to his elite level from whatever ailed him in 2014.  Therefore, and maybe this is the upsets of March Madness getting to me, I am picking Milos.  Raonic has reached the quarters or better at so many Masters 1000 events and slams in the past 18 months that I think he is due for a big win.

My Prediction: Milos Raonic d. Rafal Nadal 7-6, 6-4 w/ one frustration break making the difference