Serena Williams vs. Lucie Sarafova

Serena Williams last loss came against a lefty from the Czech Republic.  One would be foolish to think that both coaching teams have not looked at the Madrid match between Serena Williams and Petra Kvitova.  Safarova’s left-handed shot making makes this match quite a bit more insteresting than many might suspect.  Serena’s flu and degree of recovery from the flu also make this match quite interesting.  I will not pretend Serena looked healthy in her gutty semifinal win, but if she plays she is healthy enough to play.

Safarvoa the Giant Killer

Lucie Safarova beat both Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic.  Sharapova and Ivanovic are both former Roland Garros champions.  Safarova also beat a talented young player in Garbine Muguruza who defeated Serena Williams at Roland Garros 2014.  Can she pull another even bigger upset?  To do so Safarova will have to serve big, hit her lefty forehand with belief, and play crafty tennis when on the defensive.  She has the skill set to do these things, but playing in her first Grand Slam final it is hard to predict what mental belief she will bring to the court.  Winning the 1996 doubles title seemed to help Yevgeny Kafelnikov in capturing the singles crown in Paris.  Safarova won her doubles title today Safarova reached the doubles final with a semifinal win today so I think she should have some confidence from that victory heading into this final.  (Safarova does hold the 2015 Australian Open doubles title & has been part of 3 Davis Cup wins for the Czech Republic)

Serena’s GOAT Candidacy

Serena Williams has spent a lot of time ranked #1, and that situation does not appear to be ending anytime soon.  Serena has 6 US and Australian Open titles, 5 Wimbledon titles, 2 French Open titles, and 1 Olympic gold in singles.  Serena has many important doubles and even two mixed doubles grand slam crowns as well.  If Serena wins a 3rd Roland Garros on June 6th, she will hold 20 Grand Slam singles titles and be 3/4s of the way to a 2nd Serena Slam.  She will also have completed half of an elusive calendar Grand Slam.  A third Roland Garros title would also shore up Serena’s numbers at her weakest Grand Slam event.  Serena is already in the conversation for GOAT and is still adding to her legacy with ot without this title, but she is 2 sets away from adding quite a bit to her case as the GOAT.

The Tennis

Serena has the stronger serve of the two, but Safarova serving as a lefty should help her hold as well. Safarova may have an equally effective forehand, but Serena’s backhand is as good as one finds on tour. Both can finish points at the net, but neither is going to do a Martina Navratilova impression in Paris. Serena’s return of serve is the best in the business.  Given that Serena has a rock solid second serve and a great return, conventional wisdom says she wins this match.  Serena should also make good use of her superior big match experience.

My Prediction: Serena Williams d. Lucie Safarova 6-3, 7-6