Garbine Muguruza, Serena Williams, Tennis Picks, Tennis Predictions, Wimbledon

Wimbledon 2015: Garbine Can Do It – Ladies’ Championship Prediction Part 1

Posted by Dan Martin on

Garbine Muguruza’s Opportunity

The Blueprint?

Like most tennis fans, I started paying close attention to Garbine Muguruza after she defeated Serena Williams 6-2, 6-2 at the 2014 French Open.  Garbine played well after upsetting Williams and reached the quarterfinal round before falling in a competitive match to eventual champion Maria Sharapova.  This year in the round of 16 at the Australian Open Muguruza had Serena wobbly after winning the first set 6-2.  Serena righted the ship and won the final 2 sets 6-3, 6-2.  Muguruza has to know she can at least bother Serena Williams.

Comparing Muguruza to Serena’s Tough Draw

From Heather Watson forward, Serena has had a slew of worthy opponents.  Garbine does not play like Watson particulalrly, but who is she most similar to Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka, or Maria Sharapova.  Vika is a top 5 athlete on the WTA Tour.  Garbine is a good athlete, but I do not think she moves as well as Vika. However, she is taller and serves bigger than Azarenka.  Muzuruga moves better than Sharapova.  I think Muguruza has some similarities with Venus.  She generates a lot of pace on her serve and ground strokes.  She is tall and moves pretty well.  Her mechanics do not look a lot like Venus’, but the results are somewhat similar.  A tall player, with a powerful serve and youthful zeal can ammount to a tough opponent.

What Must Muguruza Do?

Muguruza grew up idolizing Serena.*  I think Muguruza needs to do what both she and Serena do so well.  Garbine needs to make her serve into a statistical factor in the match.  If Garbine is winning about 50% of the typical points but picks up 1 or 2 free points on her serve, the math suggests she will hold quite frequently.  Garbine needs to also put the ball away when she can and take control of points when the opportunity presents itself.  She also needs to play good defensive tennis when forced to counter-punch.  I think Serena is the World #1 and one of the all-time greats because she has both incredible mechanics and great athleticism.  Finally, Serena adds being mentally tougher than most athletes to her top level mechanics and athleticism.  Muguruza has to have her technique not break down, she has to make use of her athleticism, and she has to be mentally there from start to finish.  In short, for the player who idolized Serena growing up to win, she has to play like Serena against Serena. Muguruza has the ability to do so, but no one should deny that this is a monumental task in front of Garbine Muguruza.

* – Playing opponents who idoloized you is an occupational hazard Serena, Venus, and Roger have all been encountering for some time.

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