Garbine Muguruza, Serena Williams, Tennis Picks, Tennis Predictions, Wimbledon

Wimbledon 2015: Why Serena Will Do It – Ladies’ Championship Prediction Part 2

Posted by Dan Martin on

Serena Williams is on her Way to 21 Grand Slam Titles

Serena has lost 3 of her 5 most recent sets played versus Garbine Muguruza.  These matches were both Grand Slam matches.  This cannot be chalked up to Serena was leg-weary in a small event and a young player took advantage.  Muguruza’s game can bother Serena Williams.  Muguruza serves with purpose, moves well, and hits the ball with great pace and depth.  Serena faces a 5th consecutive high quality opponent.  It is possible that Serena will be mentally worn out by her draw.  There are reasons to think an upset is possible.  If I did not give Muguruza at least a 20% chance at winning I would not make a 2 part championship prediction.

Serena’s Paths to Victory

Serena is most susceptible to a bad loss when a player goads her into errors.  Muguruza is an aggressive player who is not going to play like a human backboard.  Admittedly, Serena’s only loss in 2015 came against Petra Kvitova who played aggressive tennis.  However, that was on clay.  Serena is the world #1, is a five-time Wimbledon champion, and is playing against pace.  Serena typically likes playing against pace.  Serena will need to return well so as to make Muguruza feel the occassion.  To repeat, Serena has won 5 singles titles and a singles gold medal at this venue and has lost only one match this year.

I am sure Serena would prefer a straight forward 2 set win.  However, as she proved in Melbourne vs. Muguruza, proved in Paris, and proved versus Watson and Azarenka at Wimbledon, Serena can win when she is in trouble.  I think Serena will either take control early and beat a wide-eyed frst time Grand Slam finalist or she will beat Muguruza by figuring her our over the course of 3 sets.  Serena’s mental tenacity and problem solving skills make Muguruza’s task nearly insurmountable.  I think Muguruza will come out with enthusiasm and jump to a lead.  I do not think that lead will be enough for Garbine to cross the finish line first.

My Prediction: Serena Williams d. Garbine Muguruza 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.

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