7 Jasmine Paolini vs. 31 Barbora Krejcikova

The BIG Question

How much does Wimbledon 2024 grass play like grass from 2002 and earlier?

If the grass is generally low bouncing, I think the match is largely on Barbora Krejcikova’s racquet despite having a worse seed than Jasmine Paolini. If the grass is amenable to grinding baseline points and gritty retrieving and counter-punching, the advantage swings to the 7th seed.

Why Paolini Should Win

Momentum is nothing to underestimate in this situation. Paolini has won 12 of her past 13 matches in majors after being the runner-up at Roland Garros last month. Nerves about a first grand slam final are behind her. After sprinting into the top 10 in Paris, she can jump into the top 5 with this Wimbledon run. Her positive attitude and momentum are going to make her a tough out in today’s final.

Why Krejcikova Should Win

Barbora Krejcikova is also in her second singles major final, but she captured the 2021 Roland Garros singles final. There is no pressure of “What if I never win a Grand Slam title?” lingering in her mind. Krejcikova also has captured 7 majors in doubles and a gold medal in doubles along with 3 majors in mixed doubles. She has been the #1 ranked doubles player in the world and has reached the #2 ranking in singles.

Beyond the psychological security these achievements provide, Krejcikova’s doubles acumen works well on grass. Touch shots, transition shots, improvised shots, and volleys are all skills from doubles that have translated well in her 6 singles wins at Wimbledon 2024.

Krejcikova has also faced a tougher draw to reach the final. She took out 2022 champion Elena Rybakina in the semifinal round, former major winner and tour enigma Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinal round, and the powerful 2024 Miami champion and former major runner-up Danielle Collins in the round of 16. On paper, Krejcikova could have been argued to be the underdog in all 3 of those matches, but she won 6 of 7 sets vs. this accomplished trio to reach the final.

Why Paolini May Be Different

Jasmine Paolini lacks the power that Rybakina, Ostapenko, and Collins have. Krejcikova will need to force the issue more with Jasmine Paolini and this may mean more unforced errors. If the grass is playing fast and the bounces are staying low (see The BIG Question), Krejcikova can force the issue with angles and slices that will not inflate her error count. If the court plays a little more like a hard court, unforced errors may be the determining factor.

My Prediction: Barbora Krejcikova d. Jasmine Paolini 7-5, 6-2 as I think we will have a fairly normal grass court match that favors our holder of a career doubles golden slam.