Men’s Semifinal Matches – Clash of the Titans

 Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer

The world #1 and hottest player on the tour versus one of 3 men to win the US Open 5 times in the open era.   Despite all of the shot making abilities each man possesses, this match will come down to who can pressure the other man’s ability to hold serve more often.  Novak Djokovic is probably the best returner on tour (Andy Murray being the other candidate for that honor).  Roger Federer can have matches in which he serves impeccably.  Their 2008 US Open semifinal and 2011 French Open semifinal matches are examples of Federer simply serving in this excellent manner.  My head says Novak wins, and my heart says Roger wins.  I give Novak a 60% chance of advancing, but Roger who has rarely been the underdog might thrive on that perception.  A night crowd or at least a fully settled in crowd would help Roger.  The match being the first main event of the day hurts Roger.  My pick is Novak in a tight match.

Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray

The man trying with some success to join the elite 3 players ahead of him faces the defending champion who has worked his way into excellent form.  On paper, Murray’s return can make Rafa grind and work to hold serve.  On paper, Murray is exceptionally quick and quite fit and can challenge Rafa in these areas.  On paper, Murray has all of the skills to implement Djokovic’s strategy versus Rafa.  Murray is eben showing signs of consistent excellence.  Consider that Andy Murray has reached at least the semifinal round of all four Grand Slam events this year.  Rafa and Roger can’t say that.  Murray won in Cincinnati, played Nole tough in Rome and won at the Queen’s Club.

He is going to need consistent excellence to get it done today.  I give Murray a 35% chance of advancing.  As Andy Roddick said, Nadal has worked his way into this tournament and is now taking big cuts  at the ball.  Nadal is showing his best form since Wimbledon.  Rafa has also found his eye of the tiger or modern day warrior persona in fighting the establishment of the USTA and ITF.  At some level I think Rafa is the favorite to win today and Monday because he is dialed in and seemingly playing with a mean streak.  Andy Murray will need to match this to win, but my pick is Rafa in 4 sets.

Women’s Semifinal Matches – Coronation or Reconquest?

 Serena Williams vs. Caroline Wozniacki 

A Wozniacki win followed by a US Open title would legitimize her as the #1 player in the world and the wave of the future.  Serena Williams first won the US Open in 1999.  She is poised to win it again in 2011.  Wozniacki will have to play incredible defense, demonstrate fitness and mental toughness and take chances at the appropriate time.  Kim Clijsters strategy versus Serena in 2009 should be the blueprint for Wozniacki.  I think the world #1 could win, but my pick is Serena Williams in 2 sets.

Samantha Stosur   vs. Angelique Kerber

Stosur is one of the few players with power to match Serena Williams in a slug fest.   I am still going to pick Angelique Kerber to reach the final round due to momentum and the slight the USTA threw her way.  My pick is Kerber in 3 sets.