Davis Cup Semifinal Predicitons

Preface – Who Put the Puritans in Charge of ITF Scheduling?

Tennis has the best sense of scheduling of any global sport as fans can build up to big events and then ease off for a few weeks before building up again 

How can we be less than one week removed from one of the most physical US Open matches in recent memory and both combatants now potentially  play 5 set matches in Europe?  That US Open final was so draining that both guys should take some time off, but the ITF scheduling of Grand Slams and international team competitions defies logic every year.  If  one throws in the ATP and WTA schedules, things get even more convoluted.

France versus Spain – The Pyrenees Are No More   

This feels like the heavy weight match-up of the semifinal ties despite Serbia being defending champion with a world #1 player and Argentina having a sleeping giant in Juan Martin del Potro.  France might be able to pull the upset if they lock up the doubles point.  To do so, Michael Llodra and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will need to use their net skills to dominate on the road and on clay.  I think France will win the doubles point.  Gilles Simon is the type of player Rafael Nadal may not want to face days after the US Open final.  Simon will play a lot of long points and he fights hard even if he gets behind.  Still, France’s best path to victory lies in winning the two non-Nadal singles matches.  Expecting to beat Nadal on clay is a strategy no one would call sound.  Therefore, Simon and likely Gasquet (due to surface) will need to beat David Ferrer.  Tsonga may play Nadal just to have a punchers chance.  Still, I think Spain wins 3-2 with Nadal winning 2 matches and Ferrer winning 1 match.  

 Serbia versus Argentina – The  Order of Saint Sava

Serbia-Argentina is an intriguing match-up for a few reasons.  David Nalbandian is talented enough to pull of an upset or two.  Juan Martin del Potro is not quite back to top form, but if and when he gets there tennis will have a new contender for Grand Slam glory.  Still, Serbia should win this tie in large part because it is in Serbia.  Even if Janko Tipsarevic is  injured, Viktor Troicki should be able to get 1 point for Serbia in singles.  Nenad Zimonjic is one of the top doubles players in the world.  That should give Serbia 2 points.  Even a tired and potentially gluten laden Novak Djokovic should win 1 point.  Therefore, even in the worst case scenario, I think Serbia gets at least 3 points.

This is also going to be a love fest  and a bit of a victory lap for Novak Djokovic who has to be the most decorated athlete in Serbia’s history.  He has 2 Australian Open titles, 1 Wimbledon title, 1 US Open title, an Olympic Bronze Medal and helped lead Serbia to a Davis Cup title in 2010.  The fans should be manic for Nole’s success and this will help versus Argentina.

Spain versus Serbia in the Final ?  That would be fun…

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8 Comments Add yours

  1. tennis fan says:

    I think these picks look as solid as your US Open semifinal and final picks – all of which were correct minus Stosur & no one picked her.

    1. Dan Martin says:

      Thanks – Davis Cup is no exact science and I have not followed the earlier rounds, but this is how I see things playing out this weekend.

  2. Mike Swanquis says:

    Davis Cup Fever! I really like Ecuador’s chances against Moldova in the under-world semi-elimination phase, but I’m going to have to go against the grain here and pick Vatican City to knock off Lesotho, what with the string technology advantage.

    Only 10 more rounds of Davis Cup to go before it has apparently already started all over again for some time now–wait, that’s not right!

    1. Dan Martin says:

      I think Davis Cup needs a major overhaul or just needs to be scrapped. I know in some countries it is viewed as a big deal and it seemed to spring Novak from #3 to #1. Still, I think tennis is so international that if a fan wants to root for a player based on origins they can do that at every single event. Also, since Barcelona, Bradenton and 2 or 3 other places produce almost all of the players maybe Davis Cup teams should be based on junior training facilities rather than birth place.

  3. scineram says:

    Because the players demanded this schedule instead of the previous one.

  4. tennis fan says:

    If you mean at the US Open I don’t think the players viewing the schedule as needing amending was a bad idea. Why would the ITF put Davis Cup the week after Wimbledon and the week after the US Open? Do the ATP, WTA and ITF actually talk and consult in a meaningful manner?

  5. tennis fan says:

    Argentina is dominating at the moment. Where is Novak?

  6. tennis fan says:

    You got France right on the doubles.

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