An Opening in the Top Tier

Roger Federer has not been himself throughout 2013.  Andy Murray is hurt.  Rafael Nadal missed 7 months of tennis.  Even Tomas Berdych was upended in the first round at Roland Garros.  The winner of the other semifinal will play for a Grand Slam title.  David Ferrer or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can make a move to the top tier of the sport.  Make no mistake that the winner of this match will be an underdog in the final, but I’d rather be an underdog with a chance at a title than be one of the 126 eliminated players.

The Case for Tsonga

Clay is not the obvious surface for the big man, but he did nearly defeat Novak Djokovic last year.  He also has the weapons to pressure anyone on tour including the two men playing in the other semifinal.  Also, Tsonga could be the first French player to win Roland Garros since Yannick Noah in 1983.  Henri Leconte, Cedric Pioline, Arnaud Clement and Tsonga himself have all lost in a Grand Slam final since Noah’s title.  Tsonga has enough weapons to overwhelm David Ferrer and ride a partisan crowd to a fairly straightforward win.

The Case for Ferrer

Ferrer does not stop.  I expect Tsonga to pressure the Spaniard, but much like Ferrer solved the zoning Tommy Haas riddle in Miami, Ferrer can work his way into the match and make Tsonga’s low margin for error his undoing.  Ferrer’s record at the past 5 slams is 24-4.  He is 10-1 at the past 2 French Open events.  Ferrer is ranked higher than Tsonga for a reason and that reason is greater consistency.  Clay rewards consistency.  On grass or even a hardcourt, Tsonga should be favored.  On clay, Ferrer can say au contraire.

My Pick

I almost talked myself into taking Ferrer, but I think Tsonga has the weapons to make the most of a huge opportunity.  If this were Rome, Madrid or Monte Carlo, I’d say Ferrer is the favorite.  In Paris, I am taking Tsonga in 4 close sets.

I pick Tsonga will be dancing as he advances to the French Open final