The Big Match

Make no mistake, this is the match everyone was looking forward to when all of the draws were released.  Rafael Nadal entered this tourment having won 7 of the past 8 Roland Garros titles with one realistic threat in the draw.  Novak Djokovic is number 1 in the world and beat Nadal at Monte Carlo this year.  Nole has won 8 of his past 11 matches versus Nadal.  Djokovic has also won 3 of their most recent 6 matches on clay.  Having said all of that, Nadal is 57-1 at the French Open.  Nadal beat Djokovic last year in the championship match.  Nadal is the favorite in Paris until someone forcefully proves otherwise.

Beating Nadal on Clay is Like Beating Godzilla

Godzilla generally wins in his movies.  The monster does lose occasionally, but it takes something uncommon like an oxygen destroyer or giant moth larvae to defeat him.  It takes something pretty extraordinary to get a win against Nadal on clay.  Novak Djokovic’s return game, speed, and flexibility allow for him to pressure Nadal’s serve and to win points from positions that are normally favorable to Nadal.  The question is can he do it often enough to win in a 3 out of 5 set format.

Pressure and Nole

After Djokovic won Monte Carlo, he had a forgettable clay court swing.  This contrasts to 2011 in which he won everything he played on dirt and everywhere else prior to entering the French Open.  Djokovic came into the 2011 French Open with the attention of an undefeated streak and a 2-0 record versus Nadal on clay for the year.  In 2012, Djokovic entered the French Open having won the 3 most recent Grand Slams.  Not only could he complete a career Grand Slam with a title, he’d be the first man to concurrently hold all 4 Grand Slam titles since Rod Laver.  In 2013, Nole did defeat Nadal on clay, but one ankle injury later, and he had some uncharacteristic losses heading into Paris.  Djokovic’s tennis mentor passed away during this tournament.  Thoughts of a Novak Slam or an undefeated streak are not on Novak’s radar. Most likely he is thinking about how to honor a woman who put him on the path to becoming a tennis champion.  I am not sure how mourning compares to his mental state at the past two French Open events, in truth Djokovic had a heavy heart in 2012 as well, but he is entering with lower pressure than the past two campaigns.

My Pick

Last year, I picked Djokovic to win in 4 sets.  There are many reasons staying with that pick might be wise:

• Djokovic is number 1
• Nadal has played great tennis since his injury induced hiatus, but is his self-confidence fully restored
• Djokovic beat Nadal in Monte Carlo
• Djokovic is under less pressure than in 2012 and 2011
• Nadal has dropped sets throughout this clay season

All of that adds up to my opinion that Novak would indeed be the slight favorite in a 2 out of 3 set format.  I just cannot pick against Nadal in a 3 out of 5 set format.  Nadal gained traction in Monte Carlo as the match progressed.  At the 2011 US Open and 2012 Australian Open, Nadal lost to Djokovic, but played some of his best tennis when behind.  In Paris on clay, Nadal is likely to find a way to win this match if Novak grabs the momentum.  Nadal can also be a devastating frontrunner.  My pick is Nadal in 4 great sets.