Andy Murray missed the French Open, but then won Queen’s Club.  Murray reached his second consecutive Wimbledon final and third consecutive final at events held at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Murray then won a straight set victory of 2011 Wimbledon champion and world #1 Novak Djokovic.  Since then, Murray has not looked overly impressive.  His post Wimbledon record is a modest 3-2.  Beyond that, Murray absorbed a one-sided beating from Tomas Berdych.

Where does Murray stand heading into Flushing Meadows?

Murray’s Form Must Be Better in NY

There is not a lot of North American hard court data to draw upon from either the early hard court swing or the more recent Montreal and Cincinnati events.  One could justifiably say that Murray is in a post-Wimbledon hangover and that he is not as likely to win the US Open as the top two seeds.

I take the opposite position.  Nadal is in great form and obviously is full of confidence.  I think he is clearly one of the favorites.  Nole has a great pedigree at the US Open and is #1 in the world.  I contend that Murray is on essentially equal footing with the top two seeds.

The Lendl Effect

Ivan Lendl told a young Pete Sampras in 1989 that the only thing the really mattered in tennis were the Grand Slams.  Since hiring Lendl Murray has reached won 2 Grand Slam titles, been runner-up at 1 Grand Slams, lost an epic 5 set clash with Nole in a Melbourne semifinal and lost a French Open quarterfinal to David Ferrer.  Murray’s record in slams since hiring Lendl is a gaudy 35-4.  In Sydney 1990, Lendl lost to Yannick Noah 6-1, 6-4.  Less than one month later, Lendl met Noah in the Australian Open semifinal and won 6-4, 6-1, 6-2.  Lendl wanted to peak during Grand Slam play, and I think Murray’s recent Grand Slam numbers demonstrate that he has taken on that same mindset.

Comparative Advantages

The Biggest First Serve of the Top 3

Each player in the top 3 has aspects of his game that exceed the game of the other two.  Murray’s first serve is stronger than than Nadal or Djokovic’s.  Murray also has a bit more variety and touch than his two main challenges. Nole has the best return game and incredible flexibility.  Nadal has his lefty top spin and an incomparable ability to grind out a match.  On paper, Nole has the best second serve of the trio.  If Murray has a great two weeks hitting second serves, he’d have the best service game of the top 3 and likely have a 2nd US Open title.

To win the title someone will have to negate a general comparative advantage by exceeding his typical level in a given area of the game.  In Montreal, Nadal volleyed with confidence not seen since 2011 and 2008. Rafa is playing above his already stellar normal level.  Novak has to be licking some wounds after coming so close to winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon.  Jim Courier was never the same after a similar set of near misses in 1993.  Novak is more talented than Courier so I don’t see a rough June and July as casting a shadow over his career.  I do think his confidence right now is a little lower than it has been since 2011 commenced. Finally, Murray has a confidence reservoir provided by winning Wimbledon.  Nothing that happened in Montreal or Cincinnati was going to deplete his self-belief.  If I had to pick right now, I’d select Rafael Nadal as the favorite.  Ask me again when we get to Super Saturday.