Live Analysis of the 2013 Japan Open Final Raonic vs. Del Potro

I would have posted a prediction of this, but a massive deluge of rain that caused flooding in a relative’s basement led to a late night.  Hence, I can live comment this match.

First Set 

Del Potro held easily and Raonic returned the favor for a 1-1 start.  Another easy hold and JMDP leads 2-1.  This match is an interesting battle given that there was controversy in their Montreal match.  No real feel to the match as Raonic holds again with ease.  2-2  JMDP is up 3-2.  Raonic made a bit of an impression, but JMDP held for 4-3.  We shall see if the near miss throws the Canadian.  4-4.  This match is not exactly setting the world on fire, but both men are serving well.  JMDP serving at 30-30.  He’s holding less easily than Raonic thus far.  Milos unfazed by failing to break after forcing JMDP to deuce for two straight games.  5-5.  6-6.  Now, the tension rises as single service points can swing this set.  Raonic jumped to a 2-0 lead only to lose the next 3 points.  2-3 in the breaker.  Raonic saves one set point.  5-6.  Delpo belts a service winner to take the set 7-6 (5)

Second Set

I am having a live feed issue at the moment.  1-1 40-0 for Raonic.  Raonic’s ability to come back will come down to whether he can do enough with his backhand return and his backhand during points.  Right now, he’s not doing enough on his backhand wing. Raonic leading 3-2 played a big point to get a 0-15 lead.  15-15 and then Roanic missed a makable forehand.  30-15 for JMDP.  Raonic hits a second big forehand of the game to push it to 30-30.  40-30 but Raonic crushes a backhand return winner to force deuce. Raonic showed good mobility, but lost a point he should have won.  Ad JMDP.  Deuce #2. Delpo holds.  3-3.  Raonic holds for 4-3 and gets a 0-15 return lead on JMDP.  Does he have the chance to break and make this a match?  40-15 to JMDP.  At 40-30, Raonic misses a makable forehand.  4-4.  0-15 is Raonic losing his patience?  Passing shot under pressure for 15-15.  7 points from the title for JMDP.  Could have been 6.  40-15 for Raonic.  5-4 after a hold.  The point at 0-15 was a big one for Milos.

Raonic has played better than JMDP other than during the first set tiebreak.  If Raonic can find a way, he will have won every match for 2 weeks.  Guess what winning matches for 2 weeks is a big deal if a player picks the right two weeks.  JMDP is currently winning on experience, but Milos could turn this around.  5-5 0-30.  JMDP is 6 points from the title.  Milos has played really well as of late, but experience may swing this to Delpo.  0-40. This is triple match point essentially.  30-40.  Milos playing well to save two break points.  A big forehand that JMDP follows into the net.  He knocks off a volley and leads 7-6, 6-5.  4 service points from the title.  This is a big chance for JMDP to win the title and exercise the double fault on match point vs. Isner in Cincy.  JMDP struggled to hold at least 4 times but kept holding.  At 5-5, JMDP applies pressure at the right moment and the 1 set lead puts enough pressure on Milos to help JMDP break through.  15-15 as Milos hangs in there.  Still, JMDP is 3 points from the title.  First serve big forehand combo puts JMDP 2 points from the title.  30-15.  Big hitting from JMDP leads to 40-15 and 2 match points.  Double fault on match point 40-30!!  Forehand pass by JMDP after a herky-jerky point (Milos could have volleyed a little better there).  JMDP wins 7-6 (5), 7-5.  JMDP has won DC and Tokyo in 2013 along with being the runner-up at Indian Wells and being a semifinalist at Wimbledon.  He’s not knocking on the door of the top 3 players, but I think he could build on this.  Milos’ lack of experience cost him at 5-5 in the second set.  He played well enough to break serve twice in the first set and twice in the second set.  Milos didn’t break in any of those 4 games and then played one bafd service game.  The match turned on those 5 games plus the tiebreak and he lost all 6 of those games.

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