Australian Open 2014: Day 1 Predictions

Good On Ya (or something)

Predicted Winners in BOLD

I will get my women’s pick started a little deeper into the draw

Alejandro Gonzalez (COL) vs. David Ferrer (ESP) [3] – The man will win easily or grind his way to a win.

Lukas Lacko (SVK) vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [2] – Nole has to love his draw even if this first round match could be a little tricky.

Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) [8] vs. Andrey Golubev (KAZ)  – No upsets picked to this point.

Jordan Thompson (AUS) vs. Jerzy Janowicz (POL) [20] – JJ is the biggest wild card of the top 20 seeds.  He could make a deep run or flame out in an upset.

Tomas Berdych (CZE) [7] vs Aleksandr Nedovyesov (KAZ) – I’ll take the big Czech.

Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) vs. Denis Istomin (UZB) – Baghdatis was runner-up here in 2006.  It won’t happen this year.

Nicolas Mahut (FRA) vs. Matthew Ebden (AUS) – I’m going to let my heart decide this one as Mahut finds a way to build on a decent tune-up in Sydney.

Samuel Groth (AUS) vs. Vasek Pospisil (CAN) [28] – It can be dangerous to play a hometown underdog.  Pospisil should win though.

David Guez (FRA) vs. Richard Gasquet (FRA) [9] – I used to have a rule to never pick Gasquet, but 2013 cured me of that.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) vs. Tommy Haas (GER) [12] – I think this could go either way.  Still, Haas is seeded for a reason.

Dominic Thiem (AUT) vs. Joao Sousa (POR) – 50-50 match

Carlos Berlocq (ARG) vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) – Berlocq might be outgunned but he has a lot of heart and fitness.  In a 3 out of 5 set match, I will take Berlocq.

Juan Monaco (ARG) vs. Ernests Gulbis (LAT) [23] – Gulbis played well in a tune-up, but my Gasquet rule has to be shifted to someone.  Monaco is very solid and solid can beat Gulbis.

Ricardas Berankis (LTU) vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) – This could go either way, but Dolgopolov has had nice results in Australia.

Dudi Sela (ISR) vs. Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) – I’ll grant the veteran a round 1 victory.

Fabio Fognini (ITA) [15] vs. Alex Bogomolov Jr. (RUS) – If Fognini has gotten past his bout of pouting (and tanking?) he demonstrated last summer in North America, he can keep climbing.

Santiago Giraldo (COL) vs. Sam Querrey (USA) – Querrey needs this to keep his comeback bid progressing.

Di Wu (CHN) vs. Kenny De Schepper (FRA)

Jan Hajek (CZE) vs. Damir Dzumhur (BIH)

Leonardo Mayer (ARG) vs. Albert Montanes (ESP) – Tennis’ two top countries have a face-off of lower ranked players right here.

Alejandro Falla (COL) vs. Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ)

Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) vs.  Lukasz Kubot (POL) – Does the veteran get a win?

Ivo Karlovic (CRO) vs. Ivan Dodig (CRO) [32] – A mild upset produced by a big bad first round opponent.

Tommy Robredo (ESP) [17] vs. Lukas Rosol (CZE) – Robredo in the long-run should win.

Steve Johnson (USA) vs. Adrian Mannarino (FRA)

Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) [30] vs. Michael Russell (USA) – Tursunov reconstructed his ranking last year, but he’s probably a little inflated in his ranking.  Russell never gives anything away, but Tursunov over 4 or 5 sets should figure this match out.

Kevin Anderson (RSA) [19] vs. Jiri Vesely (CZE) – The big man has to like reports that the courts are playing fast.

Albert Ramos (ESP) vs. Pablo Andujar (ESP) – I like Andujar.

Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) [14] vs. Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) – A possible upset just because it is Youzhny, but on paper the Russian should win.

Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) vs. Julien Benneteau (FRA)

Florian Mayer (GER) vs. Denis Kudla (USA) – I like Kudla a lot, but over 4 or 5 sets see Mayer winning.

Jeremy Chardy (FRA) [29] vs. Jesse Huta Galung (NED) – Does Chardy feel any pressure to defend 2013 points?  If not, he has a nice draw.

4 Comments Add yours

  1. jane's avatar jane says:

    Mostly agree with you Dan. I *hope* Pospisl can win a couple of rounds. He needs to start performing well at the slams now if he wants to make that extra jump in the rankings. I could see Gulbis winning. But then of course, I could see him losing too. It’s always a crap-shoot with him. If he gets on a roll, Nole could face him in R4 I believe. I am surprised you picked Istomin over Baggy but on current form you’re probably right. That could easily be a 5 setter. For some reason I could see G-Lo beating Tommy Haas; don’t ask me why. Just a hunch. And you’re right about Dolgo too; who knows what to predict with him, either during a match or before it!

    1. Dan Martin's avatar Dan Martin says:

      Yes, a few guys with reputations for being erratic were on the schedule today.

  2. jane's avatar jane says:

    So Gulbis does come through; watch him get all hot and on a roll, just when Nole finally has an easier path. LOL.

  3. jane's avatar jane says:

    G-lo’s up a set and a break on Haas too. But still early in that one.

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