Predicted Winners in BOLD
Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs. Kei Nishikori (JPN) [16] – After what Nadal did to Monfils, I think it is safe to say he is dialed in at this event. I think Murray and Nole are his only two true threats.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) [10] vs. Roger Federer (SUI) [6] – After what happened in Paris last year, I was close to picking Tsonga. Federer says his back feels better, and he seems to be loving his time with Edberg. I’ll take Federer in 4 or 5 sets.
Andy Murray (GBR) [4] vs. Stephane Robert (FRA) – If there are 4 tiers of players at the 2014 Australian Open, Murray is the only player with a tier to himself. Rafa and Nole are in Tier 1, Federer, Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, and Wawrinka are in Tier 3. Everyone else is in tier 4 except for Murray in Tier 2. Murray, if healthy, is a real threat and each match means the if starts to shrink. The healthier and less rusty Murray is, the worse it is for the rest of the draw.
Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [22] vs. Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) – I think Dimitrov reaches his first slam quarterfinal and gets a good sense of what lies ahead in 2014. Dimitrov being picked up by Roger Federer’s management group makes me think the Fed sees something in his 6’3″ shadow.
Tennis Abides: Dan Martin on Tennis and Life 
interesting thought about the tiers dan. i just noticed today that andy could make the quarterfinals by playing only 1 guy within the top 100. his draw really opened up. i am looking forward to that quarterfinal – be it versus fed or tsonga. i think that quarter and nole/stan are the most likely to produce fireworks, although berdych/ferrer could be really good too! nadal’s will be a cakewalk, the easiest of all. his draw opened up a lot too.
thrilling wins for ana and eugenie last night. suddenly the wta is looking quite exciting! 🙂
btw, dan, do you know if that’s ever happened before – reaching the quarterfinals playing only 1 guy inside the top 100? it would seem rare anyhow. that said, i agree with you that andy is looking stronger each round and playing into form AND that he’s a real threat.
I have no idea about the top 100 thing but it sounds statistically improbable to say the least. We’ve yet to see Lendl’s game plan for Nadal.
Hi, jane, hi Dan.
What do you think of the results of the Canadians: Raonic, Bouchard? And the teaming of Nestor of Zimonjic?
Matt I think Canada’s tennis future is much brighter than my home country’s. Bouchard has given herself a nice opportunity. Raonic looks like a top 15 player for the next 5 years and if things break the right way better than that. Pops also looks promising. Nestor seems ageless too.
I mat4. I was thrilled about genie! But I was equally if not more impressed with Ana. her returns were outrageous, her forehands beautiful and her slices also great. what a fun match that was.
as for raonic, i am not a big fan. i prefer vasek’s game by far. too bad he was injured. loving seeing nestor and zim back together again in doubles.
i am worried about nole/stan mat4. what are your thoughts?
yeah dan, i thought it seemed rare.
True dan about Lendl’s “game plan” for rafa – could be interesting! I really want to see a match up between those two.
said hi to you at the changeover too mat4. 🙂 nice to see you here.
I didn’t post at the changeover for some time. Hoped you would come back on tx, where I became the übertroll, fighting the trolls. We’re just a few left: WogBoy left definitely too. Hope he’s watching the AO live now.
I don’t like Raonic too. He is too big, and he serves too well. Nothing against Milosh, who seems to be a very nice boy, I just don’t like that kind of players. I also think that he has problems with his conditioning — he fatigues to quickly in long matches, and he prone to injuries. Is it because he could be to heavy? I don’t have an opinion right now.
But he is already good enough to win WB, IMHO, just lacks maturity to keep his emotions in check for seven matches in a row.
I watched the first set of Serena vs Ana. I was convinced Ana would simply choke. I was wrong, hopefully. She played exceptionally well in the first set already.
She was due for a big win. A few years ago, she led in the third set 5-1 against KK, and lost. She lost so many won matches in the last few years that it is difficult to count them all. It seems that she finally has found the inner peace she needs to play well.
Novak was so good against Fabulous Fabio that the Italian was accused of tanking. Anybody who has watched FF knows that his casual behaviour can be quite deceptive, and I thought he fought the best he could, saving 16 BP along the way.
I watched also the second and third set of Stan vs TR, and since the surface is very fast, the rebound a bit lower than at the USO, and Novak in ominous form, Novak still is the favourite to win, for me, in three sets, with one of them close (Wawa serves very, very well).
BTW, I feel I had to remind you both of an Ivo Karlovic joke:
“I am arriving now in Canada, land of Raonic, Nestorovic, Dancevic…”
I completely agree about the tiers. Andy is not on Novak or Rafa’s level. However, he is the clear favorite against any other player on tour. I would break up tier four into a few more groups than just one, but other than that, your tiers are spot on!
Thanks for the comment! Yeah, tier 4 could be broken down a lot, but I think the odds of anyone winning from outside of Tiers 1-3 are really low. Of course, Grigor proving me wrong would make 2014 pretty interesting. I just don’t see it happening this year.
😉 re: Ivo joke.
I hope you’re right about Nole. I think the key will be that Nole is good on return and keeps the error count low. Nole’s been serving really well! I think his motion has changed a bit – more snap on the wrist action?
I dont post at TX anymore. Not many Nole fans there, as you know. It’s mainly a Rafa site now with a few fans of Fed, and even less of Murray and Nole. I find that discussion has lessened. There is more bickering and slandering and it doesn’t add to my enjoyment of tennis. It takes away. So no thanks. 🙂 I miss some people though. Here it is nice and quiet. 😉
I hoped you would come back, anyway.
I also have the impression that Novak’s serve is evolving, but I don’t have time to compare. What’s certain is that he has improved his second serve a lot.
Against Stan, yes, of course, the key will be to return well, serve well, a make just a few UE. But I think that Novak has to be aggressive too, and to make Stan run from side to side, the way he did with Denis Istomin, who is also a great shotmaker, and to keep the ball low. The usual things, except that he can’t count on absorbing Stan’s pace, the way he does against a lot of players (even Del Po).
In general, Novak plays better than he did the whole last year, he plays DTL from both sides more often, his FH works very well, and, while I can see how he could lose the match — nothing is given, of course — I believe that he is the clear favourite.
It is, of course, a bit cruel for Stan, who is probably the second best player in that half of the draw, and who deserved a chance to play the semi. I am certain he will finish this season among the top 5, 6 players, injury excluded.
But he hasn’t lost yet.
About Ivo’s joke:
The former Yugoslavia would have been, today, a tennis superpower. I’ll count here also the players whose parents left that country after the ugly war that dismembered it.
Among the men: Djokovic, Tipsarevic, Cilic, Troicki, Tomic, Raonic, Matosevic, Karlovic, Dodig… Nestor and Zimonjic in double, then, the ladies: Jankovic, Ivanovic, Jovanovski, Petkovic, Erakovic, Mladenovic, Hercog, Tomljanovic, Vekic…
About Dan’s picks:
I agree about Rafa vs KN, although I see Dimitrov as a threat. He played an excellent match against Milosh, he almost beat Rafa last year in MC (ok, I know I exaggerate, but…), he has the serve, the shotmaking ability, and I feel his time is finally coming.
While Andy is the overwhelming favourite, BA beat a few quality players — Del Po, Paire — and we shouldn’t dismiss him lightly. I watched him once last year, and he played a TB against Novak. He showed a lot of courage and resiliency until now, and while I don’t believe he has the weapons to beat AM, the Scot has to be careful. Anyway, it is in the pure tradition of sport to feel sympathy for the underdog.
I believe that JWT will win against Roger. He is confident enough, has won their last match and he has lost in five in Australia last year. But it is a close call.
All sound outlooks – after I got Querrey over Gulbis right my picks are shot. I am only good for one great pick per event.
Who is “BA” mat4?
I don’t think Kei will win even a set versus Nadal. As for Dimitrov, maybe 1 set. I can’t see anyone stopping Rafa before the final unless Andy hits top form. I could be wrong but that’s just how it seems to me now.
Andy plays Roberts today and then either Fed/Tsonga.
Rafa plays Kei today and then either Dimi/Busta
BA is Bautista Agut. I inadvertently mixed the draw — not the first time, anyway, I tend to be already in the QF. I forgot he plays against Dimitrov.
Never watched SR, I even forgot about him, although I read Dan’s picks beforehand. Tststststs… I become more sloppy with each day.
So, from the beginning:
Rafa — Kei: 3–0,
Murray — Robert: 3–0,
Dimitrov — Bautista Agut: 3–0,
Fed — Jo: close, but I favour Jo.
I agree with your picks except i think BA will / could take a set.
I haven’t seen Tsonga’s form. Fed looked good versus Gaba though. So that one is a crapshoot.
I watched the fourth set between DelPo and BA. One moment, DelPo was on the verge of winning in four (at 4–4 in the fourth). Ten minutes later, the situation was completely reversed.
I think that BA is a courageous player, with a nice BH, a very rounded game. Not to forget that he wears Lacoste…
I watched Roger against Duckworth and Gabashvili, a set of each and some sequence on youtube. Then, JWT against Volandri and Belucci, a set of each. I think that Roger played better tennis, but his return worries me and his BP conversion rate. It’s linked, of course.
There is an article on HeavyTopSpin about Roger’s percentage of BP conversion: while it was never exceptional, it didn’t harm him for most of his career. So I could be wrong. Then, Jo’s backhand is not that good, and he can’t really play the way many players do against Roger. I even think that Roger has more pop in his BH with that new racquet, although he seldom plays it DTL, the way he once did.
Roger is the more experienced player, overall I believe he’s more intelligent and more versatile on the court. A tough call.
What do you thing of Andy’s game so far? I’ll try to find Dan assessment too.
I haven’t seen too much of Andy but bits here and there. What I saw versus maybe Soeda (?) looked good, but it wasn’t enough to gage overall form. He generally plays well at AO, though, and he said he is playing “freer” than before. So he is always a threat. He’d have to play his best versus Rafa, though, and I still wonder if Andy’s bromance with Rafa works to his detriment. We’ll see, should they meet. Which I think has a 60% of better chance of happening.
jane, I don’t think there is a bromance here. I’ve heard from trusted sources what Novak thinks about Rafa, and I believe Andy thinks the same.
At his best, Andy is probably the best player on the world outside clay. He is the strongest, the fastest, and the most accomplished. But he lacks Rafa’s killer instinct, and he still is prone to nerves. His advantage over Novak is the quality of his first serve. Free points help when you’re nervous. He destroyed Rafa last time they played. I don’t believe he can do it now, but you never know. He usually picks his game up when facing a tougher opponent.
mat4, andy considers rafa his friend. he has called rafa one of the best players to ever play tennis, he said his forehand is the best shot ever, and so on. maybe bromance is the wrong word. i think andy has a kind of awe for rafa. i’d like to see him really take it to rafa on the court. once i saw that – at tokyo. and maybe once at monte carlo. but andy’s evolved and they have not played since 2011. that’s what makes a match up between them so enticing.
i don’t know if i’d agree that andy’s faster than nole but andy has amazing anticipation and reads the game so well. he also has beautiful hands. a natural affinity for net play even though he does not exploit it.
i think nole’s serve has improved, what do you think?
I wrote the answer about the serve above. He improved his second serve, while I am not quite certain about the first serve. I had the impression, the other day, that his front leg moves differently, but it is probably just an impression. His serve DTM, especially on the deuce side, is better, and generally he has a bit more pop.
But I’ve read that the balls react well to spin, so it could be it. I don’t know. But his result, here, and probably his whole season, will depend on his first serve, its accuracy and percentage. He lost the WB final because he didn’t serve well (the most obvious factor, anyway).
Thanks mat4. I see Dimitrov is beating BA in the first set.
But BA is up a break in the second… 3-0.
BA and Dimi a set apiece.