Predicted Winners in BOLD
Tomas Berdych (CZE) [7] vs. David Ferrer (ESP) [3] – These two have split their last four matches (all on hardcourts). This makes it a tough match to call. Berdych obviously needs to dictate play and impose his serve and big shots on Ferrer. David has to make the Big Czech move and play defensive tennis. I am going against the chalk and picking Berdych in 4 strange set.
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) [8] vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [2] – Wawrinka and Nole put on two epic matches last year in Grand Slam play. A third act might be hard to pull off (see Godfather Part III). Stan has elevated his game and is making a case to be on the doorstep of the big 3 in terms of his chances on hard courts and indoor courts. Djokovic has looked unstoppable since losing the US Open final last year. I think Djokovic’s return plus his management of his service games will be the difference. I see Nole winning in 3 or 4 close sets.
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Tennis Abides: Dan Martin on Tennis and Life 
How the @#$… did Novak won those two matches?
I took a look at the WTF. Although it started in a similar manner to the two previous (I skip here their encounter in Paris, where Novak was imperious), the match was completely different: the surface was generous for the serve and for flat shots, while it slowed down over spin tremendously. The rebound seemed lower too (it is connected with the absorption of spin, I guess). Wawrinka was very nervous. He likes to hit from 1,5m behind the baseline (it allows him to have more time, to control the hight of the ball and, finally, to hit harder), but Novak had “repared” his shots DTL and varying the angles, the pace, the depth — especially the depth, therefore the height, it’s most obvious on his BH DTL, or when Novak broke in the first set — of his shots he managed to put Wawa further from his confort zone. Another difference is that in London, you have to generated all of your pace, and it is hard from the BH side.
What can we expect here? What has changed?
First, the playing environment: the balls accept well the spin, the surface is fast, but the rebound is a bit lower than at the USO.
Wawa served well against Robredo. That’s all I remember, sorry. I wanted to watch Wawa, but finally I finished watching Robredo’s strategy to avoid to be overwhelmed (meanwhile, I refreshed my memories on youtube). Wawa hit hard from both sides, and it looked the match will finish quickly. But then Robredo used two approaches: one, started moving Stan from left to right, opening angles and running around his BH, mixing his shots; then, he didn’t allow Wawa to slow down the pace with slices, rushing to the net whenever he could.
That’s what Novak did in Paris too: if you carefully watch the rallies you could notice the following sequence (from Novak’s PoV): FH IO, very high and deep, BH DTL, flat, short, low, then again FH on Stan’s BH, high rebound, and then suddenly an acceleration and he opens the angles. The following rally, Novak hit his FH flat , IO, CC. Always something different.
Wawrinka is a great shotmaker, but can be nervous at times, and he is a bit slower at changing direction (he’s big). I believe that Novak is ready for the new Stan, that he will be able to win a fair share of rallies. Of course, all of this won’t mean anything if he especially doesn’t serve well, something that allows him to be more relaxed in his complete game.
About the other match: I never understood how Ferrer manages to beat Berdych, but both Ferrer and Berdych are misteries for me. I root for Ferrer, as a Novak fan (in fact, I would be very happy with three walkover in the way to title, but I presume it is too much).
Mat4, I am not sure who to hope for, assuming Nole can beat Stan, which I am worried about. Ferrer will run Nole around like crazy and tire him out, but Nole already played David in Abu Dhabi and he won, so that’s good. Berdych can be dangerous but Nole has mostly always known how to play him. I’d say, overall, Ferrer would be better. But it’s difficult to know.
Watching Ana/Genie right now.
Nole should play his semi on Thursday, so he would have enough time to recover for the finale. I don’t see Ferrer winning in such a match. The key to beat Djokovic is to serve hard.
Just watching the results: Ana is back! There is no match where she can’t find a new way to lose.
To be fair, Ana’s hip was hurt. Still, she should’ve won tonight in 2. Her ball toss is still a liability. But I think she’s got something to build on here – good returning, great groundies, good movement, and her first serve is great when she gets it in. Hopefully she can keep moving forward with the improvements she’s made.
But Eugenie is something else – the future of women’s tennis methinks.
Berdych looks good. Dangerous even.
jane, in the second week of a slam, everybody looks dangerous. And everybody IS dangerous…
When I re-watched these highlights today, even the first set of the Paris match, it was clear to me how Wawrinka is dangerous. He is so strong! so powerful on court. He’s probably the no 3 in the world right now judging by his form.
But then, when I see that he lost to Sam Querry, ER Vasselin, Julien Benneteau this autumn, I hope that Novak can beat him too. I believe that the key is to change the direction, the spin at every shot, and to play flat, low. If Novak serves well and manage to hit DTL efficiently, he should win.
Did you watch Tsonga / Federer?
hi mat4, no I didn’t watch fed/tsonga – middle of the night here. but someone on nole’s forum said fed looked the best of everyone in that match. did you see?
what do you think of berdych. i can see that ferrer is not playing that well. but still, i think berdych is playing well. surprisingly he’s playing strategically well – which he’s not normally known for.
hmmm…. it’s a bit windy down on court and Ferrer seems to be coming back into the match. I remember Berdych didn’t like the wind at the USO in 2012 in his 5 setter versus Murray. I wonder if Ferrer winning the third set could be a switch in momentum?
Wawrinka is playing some exceptional tennis right now. Unbelievable.
Very sloppy game by Novak: 4 UE and Stan breaks.
I don’t know what’s happening with Novak. He got tense, certainly. He lost games and games from 30-0 or 0-30, and now it’s a double break for Wawa in the third.
The biggest surprise of the tournament so far is on his way…
Very depressing. 😦
Nole is ever gracious in defeat, but this loss is difficult for us fans.
Hope you’re hanging in there, mat4.
I agree I like Stan, but that loss is hard for me to look at as Nole has owned this event. Times change or a blip?
I think it’s an adjustment period for Nole – new coach etc. His serving stats for the tournament were excellent. He wasn’t returning Stan’s serve well though, and too many errors. I think – I hope – a blip and that he’ll keep improving and evolving going forward.
This Novak had better win RG because Roger is going to win Wimbledon. USO? That is too long of a drought for a top player of Nole’s caliber.